大众远东产业及旅游业基金（PFEPRF）的前景！（英文版）

Takumi

l  Malaysia
l  Singapore
l  Hong Kong
l  China
l  Japan
l  Indonesia
l  Australia

Takumi

Positive measures for the M’sian property market:

• Addressing supply side constraints

Ø  A one-stop centre will be set up to shorten the approval time
for developers to construct buildings from the current processing time of 1-2 years to 4-6 months.
Ø  Certificate of completion and compliance issued by professionals will replace the certificate of fitness for occupation currently issued by local governments

2.       Demand side incentives
a)      Removing Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT) for all classes of investors.

	Previous RPGT			New RPGT
	Individuals	Corporations	Foreigners	All
1st Year	30%	30%	30%	0%
2nd Year	30%	30%	30%	0%
3rd Year	20%	20%	30%	0%
4th Year	15%	15%	30%	0%
5th Year	5%	5%	30%	0%
6th year onwards	0%	5%	5%	0%

b)      Relaxation of foreign property ownership eg.
•          foreigners are no longer required to seek FIC approval for purchase of residential properties over RM250k
•          unlimited purchase of residential properties
•          unlimited number of loans on residential or commercial properties.

3)       Other incentives: Removing the 30% low cost requirement for developers who build-and-sell thus promoting quality properties & greater buyer protection.

[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 20-7-2007 12:09 AM 编辑 ]

Takumi

- Malaysia’s housing market is supported by positive demographics.

- 48% of population in ages between 15 to 34 years are prospective home buyers in the next 10 years.

Takumi

l  The government plans to develop the Iskandar Development Region (IDR) in South Johor into an “emerging special economic zone (SEZ)”, similar to Shenzhen, Dubai and Mumbai to do business in a global growth centre.

l  The IDR is projected to attract RM50 bil of investment in the next 5 years and RM370bil in 20 years. Under the 9th Malaysian Plan, the government has committed to invest RM12.2bil.

Takumi

From Gelang Palah Interchange
To	Distance
Johor Bahru City Centre	25km	25min
Pasir Gudang	45km	45min
Sultan Ismail Airport (Senai)	25km	25min
Tg. Pelepas Port	15km	15min
Kuala Lumpur	320km	3 hrs
Singapore City Centre	40km	45min
Changi Intl. Airport	50km	55min
Jurong Port	20km	20min

Land Price Appreciation at Special Economic Zones.

Land prices have appreciated between 30% and 60% in the region’s special economic zones (SEZs).

	Land Price (US$’000/acre)	Johor Discount to Other SEZs (%)	4-year CAGR (%)
Johor	373*	-	-
Bangalore	2,015	81	45
Dubai	2,966	87	62
Shenzhen	4,705	92	61
Mumbai	6,953	95	37
Average			51

RM30psf (assuming 300% increase from current RM7.50psf)


[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 20-7-2007 12:23 AM 编辑 ]

Takumi

The following factors will sustain long term prospects for the Singapore property market:

• Benign interest rates environment
• Sustainable GDP growth driven by financial service & tourism
• The upcoming Integrated Resorts projects
• Conducive migration policies
• Limited land supply

Takumi

Country	Immigration as % of population
Singapore	26.0
Australia	23.0
Switzerland	20.0
Canada	19.0
U.S.	12.5
UK	8.0

Conducive migration policies by the Singapore government will help to sustain the uptrend in property prices. Singapore targets to increase its population from 4.5 million to 6.5 million in the next 50 years largely through skilled migration.

Takumi

Prospects for the Hong Kong property market remains well supported by:

• Hong Kong being a leading financial services & transportation hub servicing the Southern China region
• Spillover wealth effect from a prospering mainland China
• Limited land supply
• Benign interest rates environment

Takumi

l  Residential market outlook in China is positive given that home ownership is
low.Mortgage financing only started a few years after the Housing Reform was initiated in 1998.

l  Rising urbanisation & increased wealth with rising GDP per capita will continue to sustain the domestic property market.

l  The number of Chinese earning above US$5,000 per annum is expected to rise by nearly tenfold from 59 million in 2006 to 540 million by 2016.


l       In the commercial property front, the outlook is equally strong as the Chinese government shifts to private pension funds to fund its pension fund obligations.


l       Private pension funds investing in local commercial property to secure long term returns from rental income, is expected to drive commercial properties prices higher.

l      Commercial property prices in Chinese cities are significantly below similar assets in Hong Kong.


[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 20-7-2007 12:32 AM 编辑 ]

Takumi

l  The reversal of years of low interest rates has triggered pent up demand from property buyers buying ahead of further
interest rate rises.

l  This has turned out to be positive for residential property developers.

Takumi

l  An ageing population looking for investments that offer stable income in the long run, provides a ready market for investment instruments such as REITs.

l  The activities of such trusts buying commercial property for long term rental income, has helped move prices up after a long period of deflation.

l  Going forward, a low interest rate environment with a gradually recovering economy will sustain the positive outlook for the Japanese
property market.

Takumi

Likewise in Indonesia, commercial banks had focused on corporate lending.
It was only after the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998/1999 that commercial banks started offering attractive consumer loans (including mortgages). Therefore home ownership is still at its infancy in Indonesia and the outlook is promising.

Takumi

l  Prospects for Australia property market are sustained by:
Ø  A buoyant economic environment due to robust commodity prices
Ø  Record low unemployment rate (lowest in 33 years)
Ø  Stable interest rate environment
Ø  Rising rents that caused individuals to buy property instead of renting


l  Going forward, a sustainable commodities market globally should underpin the strength of the Australian economy and hence the local property market.

Takumi

	M’sia	S’pore	China	Hong Kong	Japan	Australia
a) Resilient GDP growth	√	√	√	√	√	√
b) Rising income	√	√	√	√	√	√
c) High savings rate	√	√	√	√	√
d) Benign interest rate	√	√	√	√	√	√

	M’sia	S’pore	China	Hong Kong	Japan	Australia
e) Availability of housing loan	√	√	√	√	√	√
f) Foreign buyer	√	√				√
g) Urbanisation	√		√
h) Migration		√				√

[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 20-7-2007 12:38 AM 编辑 ]

Takumi

•  Funds which invest in real estate assets such as commercial buildings, retail malls, office, hotels, service apartments and industrial properties.

•  Net rental income is distributed to unit holders.

•  The yield of the REIT is measured by dividing distribution income over the selling price.

Takumi

	No. of REITs*	Total Mkt Cap* (US$ Bil)
Australia	31	109.5
Japan	27	44.9
Singapore	13	17.8
Hong Kong	5	7.3
Malaysia	5	0.8
Total	81	180.3

*Only includes component stocks of the Public Far-East Property Index

There are a number of REITs listed on the regional markets.

[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 20-7-2007 12:44 AM 编辑 ]

Takumi

	Avg. Yield of REITs* (%)	10-Yr Govt Bond (%)	Yield Differential
Malaysia	5.2	3.7	1.5%
Singapore	3.7	2.8	0.9%
Hong Kong	5.4	4.7	0.7%
Japan	1.9	1.9	0.0%
Australia	5.7	6.2	-0.5%

*Based on the component stocks of Public Far-East Property Index

The yield of REITs are compared with bond yields.

Takumi

Dow Jones Asia Pacific REITs Index

(in %)	2005	2006	YTD*	Total Return^
Return	-3.5	+22.2	+9.6	+29.3

*31/12/06-31/05/07
^31/12/04-31/05/07

Takumi

Westfield is the largest REIT in Australia as measured by market capitalisation and it offers an attractive yield of 5%.

Share Price

Yield

Takumi

CapitaMall is the largest REIT in Singapore, offering a yield of 4.02%.



Share Price


Yield





[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 20-7-2007 12:56 AM 编辑 ]