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发表于 26-2-2017 10:14 PM
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Test 1：
請根據以下這三篇文章的題材，用自己的文字和風格撰寫出一篇新的文章。文章建議用一些比較詼諧的文字以及一些生動的附註or內心OS，寫得越生動越有趣越好。最好是讀者讀了會很開心，讀完很想分享出去讓朋友也可以看見的文章。
2. https://brightside.me/wonder-cur ... f-surprises-241460/
Boffins versus Bookies
Sportsbook gambling industry
Punters
In the annals of professional gamblers, Mark Dixon, Tony Bloom, Matthew Benham, David Walsh, Zeljko Ranogajec etc stand very high—perhaps the largest bettor in the world, responsible for multi-billion dollars annually on sports betting. The bets have made them as multi-billionaires but also top punters in the sportsbook industry.
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Tony Bloom
Tony Bloom, a legendary gambler known as "The Lizard," is one such operator. So revered, Bloom runs Star Lizard, a company that employs a raft of people to analyse football matches for his millionaire-only investors. Bloom is rumoured to be worth more than ￡1 billion and owns Brighton, the Premier League wannabes.
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Zeljko Ranogajec
In the annals of professional gamblers, Australian Zeljko Ranogajec stands very high—perhaps the largest bettor in the world, responsible for $1 billion annually, primarily on horses. The bets have made him a multi-billionaire.
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Matthew Benham
Brentford owner Matthew Benham does not believe this, of course. He made his fortune from statistical evaluation and gambling - and has ploughed upwards of ￡90 million of it into Brentford, so credit for that - and believes football can be approached the same way.
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David Walsh
David Walsh, millionaire art curator and member of Australia’s legendary Punters Club betting syndicate, has one word for bettors who’d like to follow in his footsteps: don’t. In a wide-ranging interview with the Australian Financial Review, Walsh (pictured) offered a rare glimpse into the wagering ways that earned he and Punters Club founder Zeljko Ranogajec hundreds of millions of dollars over the years. But the biggest piece of advice he has for Aussies who’d like to emulate his path to fame and fortune would be “not to live like I did.”
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Will Wilde
Most people might bristle when accused of being a "boffin" (or "braniac" for the American audience). Not Will Wilde. It’s a badge he wears with pride.
"Yes, I suppose I am (proud of being a boffin)," he says matter of factly. "I think you have to be. Most people say to me 'Do you watch football all week?' Well, it’s on every week, but it doesn’t matter if I watch it or not. It’s all about the algorithm."
Beat the Odds
Beyond the decades, we all know there have some smart punters able to beat the odds and gain from bookmakers. However how do we know the secret of make money?
I intentionally created this page to let people learn scientific sportsbook. Dr. Mark James Dixon is the person I admired the most since few years ago when I am doing research on soccer odds modelling thoroughly. We know there were a lot of people doing research on odds modelling since decades, but Dr Mark Dixon himself wrote a very clear, completed and concise research thesis which is how to apply statistical formula Poisson model to gain money from bookmakers. The papers has been cross the decades and deem as a revolution in sportsbook industry, where later frequently referred to as the bible of value investing by World-wide use by SmartOdds, StarLizard, Scibet, MatchOdds, etc. I also keep learning from Dr Mark and struggle to build my own company and website at Scibrokes®.(Testing website with some source codes of research via https://github.com/scibrokes)
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Mark Dixon
Mark Dixon is the pioneer who published the first paper which conducting research on sports book investment and then followed by a lot of followers who with mathematics / statistics background.
The Return of Investment
There isn't a bookmaker but a company that treats gambling the way hedge funds treat stocks. Officially, it describes itself as a betting consultancy that uses complex statistical models to generate football odds that are sharper than those offered by professional bookmakers. These are then sold to clients to help them beat the market. The company thus acts more like a betting adviser than a bookmaker — it doesn't actually take bets.
Most of the smart punters built up their own sportsbook consultancy firm. Let day for Tony Bloom, the sums are huge. To earn the average annual UK salary of ￡26,500, one would need a bankroll of around ￡150,000. That is because the best most punters can hope for is a return of investment between 3-4 percent. The more you gamble, the more you win. It is not unusual for a pro to turn over millions per season and place ￡50,000 single wagers on the result of, say, Newcastle United versus Crystal Palace.
They bet on all leagues around the world, and they place their bets, not with the traditional high-street bookmakers—they would never accept such massive wagers—but in the vast Asian betting market which can attract up to $120 million on a single Premier League game.
About 90 percent of money wagered will be on the Asian handicap, a market that allows the team expected to win a "head start" of a quarter of a goal or more to the opposition. The rest of the money staked will go on a market for over or under a certain number of goals and the match-result market.
And then, what is the secret of Ranogajec’s gambling prowess? It may lie in a conspicuous early success. He bet on a A$7.5 million pot in Keno in the mid-1990s, at that time a world record. He won. Several stories say that he likely bet A$7.5 million to win—but also had a number of smaller bets placed in a number of places, so rather than his winnings just pulling even with the amount of his bet, he ended up winning a nice amount handily.
He then switched to, and still bets primarily in, horse racing.
People who speak on the record about his method note that he bets massive amounts on small margins (the old Keno experience, writ larger) and searches relentlessly for liquidity. Ranogajec is believed to scout the betting world for large pools of cash—as much cash as possible. He and his associates then place bets on the small margins—and bring in, the Sydney Herald thinks, 1% to 2%.
His team is anything but intuitive—they use sophisticated math programs, computers, and videos to scout the gaming world.
The system has made both Ranogajec and his associates rich. David Walsh, one of his closest partners, has an art fortune of A$100 million, and Ranogajec has bought real estate worth at least A$21 million in Australia.
Reference :
Inside Starlizard: The story of Britain's most successful gambler and the secretive company that helps him win
Brentford owner Matthew Benham is obsessed with stats... yet he has come up with the wrong formula for success
数学家“十赌九赢”赚150亿？
MUGS AND MILLIONAIRES: INSIDE THE MURKY WORLD OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL GAMBLING
David Walsh offers insights into Punters Club’s wagering ways
Boffins -vs- Bookies (The Man Who Broke the World Leading Bookmakers)
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