舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ? （八）

奥萨马宾拉丁

原帖由 lim2000 于 2-4-2007 08:22 PM 发表


还未出,我也在等.

可能前辈出国去比赛象棋了.(国际赛)

lim2000

原帖由 奥萨马宾拉丁 于 2-4-2007 08:43 PM 发表

可能前辈出国去比赛象棋了.(国际赛)

就算出国,那个国家也应该有INTERNET吧?

sogrlcc

只想提出自己的看法：
如果Megan成功了，以中长期可能达到的业绩来看，要多久股价才能升回>RM1?
如果现在退出，有没有可能得到更好的回报？成功的机会又多高？

Red.Sun

原帖由 sogrlcc 于 2-4-2007 09:34 PM 发表
只想提出自己的看法：
如果Megan成功了，以中长期可能达到的业绩来看，要多久股价才能升回>RM1?
如果现在退出，有没有可能得到更好的回报？成功的机会又多高？

呵呵，我也提出自己的看法：
以中长期可能达到的业绩来看，除非有利好“消息”或大牛登场，否则股价难升...
如果现在退出，有只类似的“科技”股业绩不错，成功机会肯定比定期存款高。

klse.8k

Megan 3Q-2007的业绩出炉了，单季每股净盈利0.052令吉，比前期的0.097令吉退步了46%。
而九个月的每股净盈利是0.193令吉，却比前期的0.180令吉进步了6.7%。

业绩公布之前，有网友告诉我，他预测Megan的业绩将会是亮丽的，当时我就告诉他，不要期望太高，因为“期望越高，失望越大”。
结果业绩出炉了，果然如此。

那么，这个业绩有令我失望吗？
老实说，Megan没有从CD和DVD的价格趋稳中受惠，的确令人失望，但是，令人惊讶的却是它的营业额暴涨了42%。
从这一点，我看到了Megan“泼辣”的一面。

平心而论，如果我是Megan的同行，我会很担忧，因为我看到了Megan的泼辣。

这一季，Megan取得了3.06亿令吉的营业额，比前期的2.15亿令吉激增了42%。
在商言商，看到自己的竞争对手取得42%的营业额成长，绝对不是一件好受的事情。
尤其是看到对方是通过退步的盈利，而取得进步的营业额，更是令人难受。
（同行会这样想：啊，Megan是采用薄利多销的策略来吞噬我的蛋糕！）

Megan的业务是以OEM为主，所以它的全年营业额虽然高达10亿令吉，但是客户却不多，只有100个左右。
就是这个OEM的生意方式，令到Megan的Trade receivables高踞不下，因为，OEM客户都是大公司，给它们欠几个月的帐期就是一笔庞大的数目了。

幸亏这笔庞大的Trade receivables可以轻易的变成短期贷款（因为都是有名堂的大客户，所以银行很乐意通融），就是这个原因，Megan没有面对周转不灵的问题。
（注：截至31/1/2007，Megan有3.33亿令吉的Bill payables，占了短期负债4.12亿的80%）

我认为Megan是通过薄利多销的策略来争取新的客户，因为 note B3有写道：在现有的客户和新的客户的支持下，公司有信心在2007财政年保持盈利。（我对这句有兴趣：with the support of existing and new customers，特别是这句new customers）

客户增加，Trade receivables就会增加，这就是经营OEM的方式（放账）。
随着客户的增加，可以预期Megan的Revenue和Trade receivables还会继续的成长，这是无可避免的事实了，因为这就是Megan成长的路线。

待续。。。

[ 本帖最后由 klse.8k 于 3-4-2007 06:45 AM 编辑 ]

klse.8k

继续。。。

其实，在一年前Megan可以轻易的摆脱目前的困境（债台高筑的困境）。
当时，只要它暂时停下脚步，不要进军Blue Disc和HD-DVD，一切就可以改观了。

但是，Megan却没有这么做。（我很兴奋，因为它才有机会成为千里马）

今天，Megan账目上current assets里面的deposits & prepayments高达2.6亿令吉。
其实这笔钱已经是Blue Disc和HD-DVD的机器了，只是因为它还没有正式的生产，所以就暂时列在current assets里面。
（macy有说过，2007年4月才会正式的生产）

试想一想，如果这笔钱（2.6亿）是用来减轻债务或派发股息，它对股价的帮助是多么的巨大呀。
但是，它却呆在账目里九个月了，整整九个月没有为公司赚到一分钱。（这就是先苦后甜）
注：它第一次出现在账目上是在30/4/2006（Other receivables, deposits & prepayments）

今天， Megan公布了九个月的盈利，截至31/1/2007，它的每股净盈利是0.193令吉。
这个成绩真的差强人意吗？
如果考虑到这期间2.6亿令吉是闲置在Blue Disc和HD-DVD上面，我们就可以发觉，其实这个成绩是多么的骄人呀。
（Megan的缴足资本只是2.05亿而已！）

如果这笔2.6亿是用来还债，单单节省利息就可以替Megan增加每股净盈利0.075令吉。
（0.193 + 0.075 = 0.268，九个月就赚0.268，这是多么的骄人呀！）

但是，YEO决定把这笔钱用来购置Blue Disc和HD-DVD机器。
（结果Megan还欠机器供应商，余款1.10亿令吉）

那么，Megan把这么大的赌注押在Blue Disc和HD-DVD上面是否是明智的决定呢？

（下回分解，待续）

[ 本帖最后由 klse.8k 于 3-4-2007 07:06 AM 编辑 ]

lim2000

终于有KLSE.8K大大对新的财政报稿的分享,果然高人有高见.

piao2

今天，Megan账目上current assets里面的deposits & prepayments高达2.6亿令吉。
其实这笔钱已经是Blue Disc和HD-DVD的机器了，只是因为它还没有正式的生产，所以就暂时列在current assets里面。
（macy有说过，2007年4月才会正式的生产）

klse前辈，请问你如何得知deposits & prepayments是指这一批机器？我在最新 的报告里没看到。。。

另外，Megan有3.33亿令吉的Bill payables，这个bill payable 是不是指顾客还没还的钱（这笔帐已经抵押给银行？）？

见笑了。

Mr.Business

各位网友，
能不能去看看我的1267楼?MEGAN回教债券的利息（加上所谓的HIBAH）会不会太高了？

我的算法：
Series        Hibah Amount + Original Coupon Rate (for period effective 10 Nov 2006 up to 26 Oct 2007)
1               6.70% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
2               7.35% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
3               8.35% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
4               9.25% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
5               9.75% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
6               10.10% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds

Series        Hibah Amount+ Original Coupon Rate (5 years from 27 Oct 2007 to 26 Oct 2012)
1               －（第一笔的债券应已被还清）
2               8.35% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
3               9.35% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
4               10.25% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
5               10.75% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
6               11.10% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds

我觉得MEGAN先用高利息来确保回教债券的债主同意修订条例。可是MEGAN并不想让他们赚到这些利息，所以在修订中加多一条＂Buyback call option"：MEGAN有权利于27／4／2007和26／10／2007还清部分或所有回教债券。

因此，我认为MEGAN应该会在26／10／2007之前完成筹资。MEGAN曾说过： ＂MEGAN計劃發售新股以籌資償還貸款，惟目前發售詳情仍未明朗，只能確定可於2007年中旬完成＂。

所以，我认为MEGAN股价的打压很大可能会在26／10／2007之前结束（应该说MEGAN股价在26／10／2007时应已暴涨）。

希望我的猜测是正确的。

Mr.Business

中文解释：
息票，息票利率  Coupon Rate


定义：  
债券在发行时确定的利率，息票一般每半年支付一次。  指债券发行人答应对债券持有人就债券面值(Face Value)支付的年利率。

http://www.caibai.cn/dictionary_terms.php?term_id=425

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英文解释：

1. The coupon rate is the interest rate that is paid out to the bond holder. The name derives from the old system of payment, in which bond holders would need to send in coupons in order to receive payment. The coupon is set when the bond is issued and is usually expressed as an annual percentage of the par value of the bond. Payments usually occur every six months, but this can vary.

If there is a 5% coupon on a $1000 face value bond, the bondholder will receive $50 every year. If two bonds with equal maturities and face values pay out different coupons, the prices of these bonds will behave differently in the secondary market. For example, the bond with a lower coupon rate will be less expensive because the bondholder is going to be getting more of his/her return from the return of principal at maturity than will the holder of a bond with a higher coupon. There are some bonds that do not pay out any coupons; these are called zero-coupon bonds .

http://www.investorguide.com/igu-article-571-bonds-basic-bonds-terminology.html

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2. The coupon rate of a bond, note, or other fixed-income security indicates the amount of interest that a particular bond pays out. More specifically, the coupon rate represents the annual interest rate expressed as a percentage of the bond’s face value, or principal. The term is synonymous with a bond's nominal interest rate.

The term “coupon” derives from the days when bonds came as actual physical certificates with bond coupons attached. Fixed-income investors would then clip these coupons from the certificates and would redeem them for cash at their local bank.

http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/c/couponrate.asp

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3. The coupon rate is the interest rate stated on a bond, note or other fixed income security, expressed as a percentage of the principal (face value). also called coupon yield.

http://www.investorwords.com/1174/coupon_rate.html

Mr.Business

1. What is the difference between Islamic bonds and conventional bonds?
Islamic bonds are similar to conventional bonds in Malaysia. It always has fix term maturity, can bear a coupon, and trades on the normal yield price relationship. For conventional investors, the structuring of the bonds by the issuer is immaterial. The difference lies only in the way the issuer structure the bonds.

An Islamic bonds is structured such that the issuance is not an exchange of paper for money consideration with the imposition of an interest as per conventional. It is based on an exchange of approved asset for some financial consideration that allow the investors to earn profits from the transactions. Approval of the assets and the contract of exchange would be based on Syariah (Islamic law) principles , which is necessary to meet the Islamic requirement.

The various type of Islamic-based structures used for the creation of Islamic bonds are sale and purchase of an asset based on deferred payment, leasing of specific assets or participation in joint-venture businesses.

2. Is there any difference in term of investors' protection against default?
The Islamic bonds share the same criteria as the conventional bond in the matters of non-payment/late payment of the profit portion and the principal amount.

3. Is there any liquidity premium in holding Islamic bonds?
Islamic bonds traded actively in the market by both the conventional and Islamic players. The system of Principal Dealership applies to the government issued bonds; there are currently 10 principle dealers for Islamic bonds, the same parties as those for conventional government bonds. The principle dealers are obliged to make market for Government Islamic instruments by quoting 2 way prices, and in addition, respective lead arrangers will make the market for the Islamic private debt securities.
  
The Islamic bond market in Malaysia has seen outstanding growth, and has established itself as a viable alternative investment for both Islamic and conventional investors.

4. What are the Islamic bonds available in Malaysia?
There are three types of Islamic bonds issuers
a. Government
Government Investment Issues (GII)
- Issued by the Government of Malaysia
- Governed by the Government Investment Act 1983; provides the power for the government to borrow via Islamic principle for its general financing.
- Currently only zero coupon bonds issued
- Syariah principle: debt based (securitisation of government assets, but not a direct claim of assets as in an Asset-backed securities)
- Total outstanding balance as at end of 2003 is RM7b, up to a limit of RM15b imposed by the Act.
- Tradable since June 2001.
- Issued on a pre-announced calendar.

b. Quasi Government
Khazanah Benchmark Bond
- Khazanah Benchmark Bond was issued by Khazanah Nasional Berhad (fully owned by the government)
- Issued mainly for long-term financing purposes
- Zero coupon
- Syariah principle: debt based
- Total outstanding balance as at end of 2003 is RM10b (maximum limit)

c. Corporate bonds
- Known as Islamic Private Debt Securities(IPDS)
- Issued by big corporations in Malaysia
- Minimum period of 3 years and maximum of 20 years
- Approval from Security Commission and Central Bank required

5. What are the principles used for issuance of Islamic bonds?
Currently, there are 3 structures,
a. Debt based
- This is the most commonly structured Islamic bond in Malaysia and can be issued based on fixed or zero rate coupon
- Malaysian GII and Khazanah bonds are based on this principles
- Process: I) issuer identified assets, ii) Islamic banking institution then purchased these assets on competitive tender basis under Islamic principles, proceed paid to the issuer, iii) immediately re-sell the assets to the issuer at the selling price and at the same time issuer will issue bonds.
- Traded in the secondary market via the concept of debt trading.

b. Asset based
- Securities that evidences ownership in income generating assets
- Such assets are normally structured to be owned by special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) which in turn act as lessors and issuer as the lessee
- Holders will benefit from the cashflow generated through the lease
- This structure allows for both fixed and floating rate

c. Equity based
- A bond that represents common ownership and entitles the holders shares in a specific project
- Shares of profit are determined beforehand by a definite proportion of the total bond amount
-  Although it is similar to shares, it has a fixed maturity which is determined by the tenure or project completion date
- This structure normally bears a floating rate


Comparison between of Islamic and Conventional Bonds:
Islamic Bonds:
Issuance process-          Must be approved by Syariah scholars and Securities Commission         
Structure types-            Asset, equity and debt based
Issuers-                         Government, semi- Government and private sectors         
Investors-                      Both conventional and Islamic investors         

Conventional Bonds:
Issuance process-          Must be approved by Securities Commission only
Structure types-     Debt based only
Issuers-                          Government, semi- Government and private sectors         
Investors-                      Only conventional investors

http://iimm.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=1&pg=42

常山趙子龍

MEGAN就像一场战役，中国打日本鬼一样，打了八年，八年抗战!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mr.Business

如果我没算错的话，MEGAN于26／10／2007必须清还RM40mil的回教债券本金和大约RM28.41mil的回教债券利息。
哇，很多一下。。。

Islamic Bond Amount (RM'mil)    Bond Rate (%)    Interest (RM'mil)
40    6.7    2.68
40    7.35    2.94
40    8.35    3.34
60    9.25    5.55
70    9.75    6.825
70    10.1    7.07
    Total    28.405

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加上HIBAH，MEGAN将要清还的回教债券本金和利息：

Maturity Date    Bond Amount (RM'mil)    Interest Amount (RM'mil)    Total Repayment Amount (RM'mil)
26/10/2007    40    28.41    68.41
28/10/2008    40    28.53    68.53
28/10/2009    40    25.19    65.19
28/10/2010    60    21.45    81.45
28/12/2011    70    15.30    85.30
26/10/2012    70     7.77    77.77

如果MEGAN没有为了修订条例而给予HIBAH， 下表将是MEGAN将要清还的回教债券本金和利息：

Maturity Date    Bond Amount (RM'mil)    Interest Amount (RM'mil)    Total Repayment Amount (RM'mil)
26/10/2007    40    21.12    61.12
28/10/2008    40    18.94    58.94
28/10/2009    40    16.60    56.60
28/10/2010    60    14.06    74.06
28/12/2011    70    10.01    80.01
26/10/2012    70     5.08    75.08

MEGAN为了修订条例而给予HIBAH，导致MEGAN必须多给RM40.84mil的利息！


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MEGAN回教债券内有一个条例:

-Establishment of a Finance Service Reserve Account (“FSRA”), which will capture the principal and coupon payments of issued
BaIDS, in advance. The FSRA will capture the amount equivalent to the next principal and/or coupon payments of the outstanding BaIDS,
3 months prior to their respective due dates.

所以在26／7／2007时，MEGAN必须有RM68.41mil在Finance Service Reserve Account，以便她能在26／10／2007清还RM40mil的回教债券本金和大约RM28.41mil的回教债券利息。如果她在7月时拿不出这一笔款项，她的债券就应该会被降级了。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 3-4-2007 01:39 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

Takaso是什么公司；Lim Goh是什么人。为什么Lim Goh在30／3／2007成为Takaso大股东，The Edge今天（3／4／2007）就报道了？而Brahmal在5／3／2007成为Megan大股东，The Edge迟迟不报道？

难道The Edge会知道Brahmal将在6／3／2007卖出一些股份，不再是Megan的大股东，所以不报道？不对啊，Brahmal是在12／3／2007才呈报Bursa的，难道有人提早告知The Edge？不逻辑啊。。。


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03-04-2007: New substantial shareholder in Takaso

A new substantial shareholder, Lim Goh has emerged in Second Board company Takaso Resources Bhd with a 5.49% stake.

A filing to Bursa Malaysia showed that Lim acquired the 2.259 million shares on March 30. The share price closed at 39 sen on that day.

Takaso’s core businesses include manufacturing of condoms and baby products and it is also involved in the trading and retailing of rubber products, baby apparel and infant milk formula.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... a-1758cd10-c77bad84

大棵呆

The Edge可以选择性报导，它也没有义务要报导。重要是Bursa有没有update就好。

Mr.Business

也许你不清楚我想表达什么

8years

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 3-4-2007 12:39 PM 发表
如果我没算错的话，MEGAN于26／10／2007必须清还RM40mil的回教债券本金和大约RM28.41mil的回教债券利息。
哇，很多一下。。。

Islamic Bond Amount (RM'mil)    Bond Rate (%)    Interest (RM'mil)
40    ...

在10/07前megan可以拿出这笔cash吗？？？

Mr.Business

请参考我的1294楼，7／2007之前Megan就必须拿出这笔钱了。

8years

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 3-4-2007 02:33 PM 发表
请参考我的1294楼，7／2007之前Megan就必须拿出这笔钱了。

还剩3个月，megan可以拿出那么多cash吗？？？

Mr.Business

向银行借不是有咯...