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发表于 5-5-2009 09:04 PM
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是否要跑了呢？？？？ 
HWANGDBS Vickers Research has reiterated that WCT Bhd is fully valued at RM1.55 as earnings visibility for the construction firm remained poor given that some 85% of its RM2.6 billion order book would be depleted in its fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2009 based on its expected completion data.
The research firm also said earnings visibility would also be low for WCT in FY10 as the firm would only see spillover from its Putrajaya project.
“We may be too optimistic about its order book assumption of RM1.5 billion for FY09F that would be gradually overbooked over FY10F. WCT’s internal forecast is only RM1 billion,” it said. Presently, some 51% of its order book comprises projects in the Middle East, mainly the Abu Dhabi F1 project, with the remaining in Malaysia.
However, HwangDBS had raised WCT’s target price to RM1.35 based on a higher multiple of 10 times from eight times, in anticipation of continued positive news flow in the sector.
“Although we raised our target multiple for WCT, we still see downside at current levels. WCT is trading at 11.7 times FY10F price-earnings (PE), a premium to 1998 average of 9.9 times and at parity with IJM Corporation Bhd. With its smaller market capitalisation (27% of IJM’s) smaller order book (49% of IJM’s), and with less entrenched position locally, we believe the risk-reward ratio for WCT has turned negative,” it noted.
While it acknowledged that WCT had moved ahead despite the unfortunate cancellation of a key project, it said the market “is pricing too much hope”.
“WCT is currently trading at 11.7 times FY10F PE on the back of 11% decline in earnings year-on-year. We think this is expensive. Assuming blue-skies scenario of one-standard deviation above its historical 10-year mean of 9.2 times, the stock would be worth RM2 at 15 times PE,” it said.
“But this is unlikely unless it can fill the void arising from the loss of the Meydan racecourse project,” HwangDBS said.
Among the three contractors under its coverage ( IJM, Gamuda Bhd and WCT), it said WCT’s earnings were most vulnerable after 2009 given that 85% of its current order book would be recognised by FY09.
It also said WCT’s business is less diversified and it had no meaningful concession earnings.
“Income from the property investment would grow with the completion of Paradigm, Kelana Jaya and its mall in Vietnam,” said the research house.
On new jobs for WCT, HwangDBS said it was possible for WCT to meet its target of RM1 billion new jobs by end-FY09. WCT is expected to receive letter of awards (LOA) for RM500 million worth of jobs in Sabah and the balance from new contracts in Abu Dhabi end-2009.
WCT had done groundwork for the projects, but nothing concrete had been finalised. “However, it is trying to win contracts from Aldar’s US$40 billion (RM142.8 billion) pipeline project in other areas. We also foresee a more competitive landscape in Abu Dhabi, which could compress margins as contractors move out of Dubai. Ideally, the contracts should be awarded in 1H09 to ensure gradual profit recognition in 2010,” it said.
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