【8years 个人专区 1】8年的投资组合。

mjchua

原帖由 siaolee2000 于 4-9-2007 06:50 PM 发表
TITAN的PE也很低

但是 high debt

Mr.Business

不要再提醒我了，哈。。。你不是卖了吗？

我在RM1.61时买了一点，之后RM1.71卖出，contra gain。。。

mjchua

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 4-9-2007 06:52 PM 发表
不要再提醒我了，哈。。。你不是卖了吗？

我在RM1.61时买了一点，之后RM1.71卖出，contra gain。。。

哈哈... 不是故意再提醒你的... 不好意思...
我是 RM1.44 買進 RM1.69 賣出... 也是 contra gain

[ 本帖最后由 mjchua 于 4-9-2007 07:13 PM 编辑 ]

mjchua

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 4-9-2007 06:52 PM 发表
不要再提醒我了，哈。。。你不是卖了吗？

我在RM1.61时买了一点，之后RM1.71卖出，contra gain。。。

是賣了... 所以現在只能在場外看別人騎千里馬

Mr.Business

MDF的行业比较有优势。打比方讲，之前国内的MDF生产商才10来间，之后小厂商又被吃掉，所以竞争不大。

而印尼，大马和泰国因为有大量的橡胶木，所以MDF占优势，长青有在这三个国家有工厂，很快就是 (还是已经是了)东南亚MDF生产商的老大了。

另一方面， 我相信MDF会比plywood有较好的前景。环保，sustainable, 成本较低。。。

橡胶真对我国有用，有了橡胶，过去出了Top Golve, 将来会有Evergreen。。。

mjchua

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 4-9-2007 07:05 PM 发表

而印尼，大马和泰国因为有大量的橡胶木，所以MDF占优势，长青有在这三个国家有工厂，很快就是 (还是已经是了)东南亚MDF生产商的老大了。

現在還不是老大
evergreen 現在在研發 100% 使用油棕樹來做 MDF
若成功的話 那以後 evergreen 生產的 MDF 的成本會降低很多

8years

“过去出了Top Golve, 将来会有Evergreen。。。“

这句很合我意 不过这行业产品价钱波动很大，而且有周期性，所以就不能和topglove比较。不过管理层积极性的宽展业务也是好的，只是现在产品价钱大跌的情况下，要知道会对它影响有几深先。再出多一季的财报大概就可以知道他对产品价钱大跌的承受力有几大，那时候才大量买进也不迟。

所以现在买进一点收着放。

8years

“研發 100% 使用油棕樹來做 MDF“
有这等事？？如果是真的成功了，evrgn就肯定比topglove还值钱。
有什么这方面的消息吗？？

Mr.Business

Evergreen现在的生产量是700000 cubic meter (国内380000cubic meter; 泰国320000 cubic meter)；
Dongwha的生产量是510000 cubic meter （工厂都在国内);
泰国的Vanachai的生产量是780000 cubic meter。
所以暂时是Vanachai第一；Evergreen第二；Dongwha第三。

其实是不是老大并不是最重要的，能降低成本，为股东赚大钱才是最重要的。

XXXXX

Monday December 18, 2006

Evergreen looks to oil palm for new source of raw material

MALAYSIAN fibreboard companies have to be innovative and creative to maintain their leading edge in the international market. One of Asia’s top five fibreboard companies, Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd is strong in research and development (R&D) to keep Malaysia ahead of its rivals and to remain among the top three exporters of fibreboards globally. Executive director Kuo Jen Chiu speaks with StarBiz journalist ZAZALI MUSA.

STARBIZ: What is Evergreen’s focus in terms of R&D?

Kuo Jen Chiu: Our team is constantly doing research works on new wood species which could be turned into raw materials for fibreboard making. It is important for the company or even the industry to be able to use other than the existing wood species such as rubberwood and acacia. This will not only lessen our dependency on any particular wood species but also help the company to widen its range of fibreboards.

Finished fibreboard ready for export.
There are many tree species in the Malaysian jungles which could be cultivated in farms dedicated to supplying wood for the industry. What needs to be done is to turn the jungle species into fast-growing trees – maybe less than five years – for the industry usage rather than waiting for 50 years. Most plantation species can be used in fibreboard making and we need strong R&D activities by the industry to develop such species.

Evergreen looks to oil palm for new source of raw material
Evergreen is currently working with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to use oil palm as the main raw material for fibreboards. It would be nice if the industry could use oil palm, as the country has an abundant supply of the trees. A worker cuts a rubber tree trunk. The cut parts will be crushed into woodchips. Until today, there is no technology that can process oil palm, as the species is very special, with less fibre, and it is quite
challenging to extract the fibre. Special equipment is needed to do that and right now, there are many ongoing R&D activities on oil palm. Hopefully, there will be a breakthrough in three to five years. A few mills in Malaysia are already producing fibreboard using 75% and 25% of rubberwood and oil palm respectively; the challenge now is to use 100% oil palm. The company does not rule out the possibility of exporting oil palm-based fibreboards in the future and the challenge is to find the market for such product.

StarBiz: What is the prospect for the fibreboard-making industry?
Kuo: The industry’s prospect is expected to be bright in years to come, considering the upward trend of the price of fibreboard and the increase in demand globally. The price of fibreboard has been going up almost 20% in the past three months and the uptrend is likely to continue in 2007. The increase is attributed to the shortage of natural woods for furniture industry, which has to look at substitutes, and fibreboard is the answer.
It is also cheaper for furniture makers to use fibreboard in their products instead of using woods obtained from trees growing in the jungles. Pressure from non-governmental organisations in developed countries to boycott tropical hardwood furniture also helps to push up demand for fibreboards. The industry must work together with research bodies in Malaysia and overseas to come out with new wood species as new sources of raw materials. I believe that in years to come, there will be a technology breakthrough in the industry and users worldwide can expect new fibreboard products from Malaysia.

StarBiz: What are the challenges in the industry?
Kuo: Malaysia should maintain its competitive edge in the international fibreboard-making industry by controlling its production cost. The country, together with Indonesia and Thailand, still enjoys lower costs due to the constant supply of woodchips from domestic resources. Producing a substitute product for natural woods, the industry must be able to produce fibreboard at lower costs and sell them cheap. Uncertainties in fuel oil prices do not have much impact on the industry as most fibreboard plants are already using biomass as a source of energy for production. The only impact is from the glue resin because its raw material is petroleum by-products and glue resin makes up about 25% of the total production cost. It will be good if the company can produce its own glue resin for internal consumption and at the same time, sell them to other users. The price of glue resin is likely to go up in the coming years as demand for the product has grown steadily in recent years. The increase in the price of industrial glue is largely attributed to the strong demand by the wood and paper-based industries.

http://www.biznewsdb.com/english ... rgreen%20Fibreboard

mjchua

原帖由 8years 于 4-9-2007 07:24 PM 发表
“研發 100% 使用油棕樹來做 MDF“
有这等事？？如果是真的成功了，evrgn就肯定比topglove还值钱。
有什么这方面的消息吗？？

有... 跟據evergreen的說法... 油棕樹不含大量 Fibre, 所以沒有什麼實用價值
所以若 evergreen 成功使用油棕樹木來製造 MDF 的話 加上可以控制 glue 和 power 的成本
那你說 evergreen 能不能和 top glove 比較 ? 這就要看管理層的功力了

[ 本帖最后由 mjchua 于 4-9-2007 07:40 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

我做过研究，我发现MDF是一个我国会比中国占优势的行业。因为在这行业，人工并不是最重要的条件，反而材料 (木头，wood chip)的价钱比较重要。

我国是热带国家，树木生长的比较快，中国受气候，土质的影响，占了下风。

不理中国的经济会不会过热，人民的数目还是在增加，住房的需要还是在增加，对MDF需求还是大的。

MDF的材料可从plantation wood得到，不用一定要大树干才行，树枝和小树干都可以做材料。

总有一天，各国政府将更严格管制balak，森林的开发，而MDF是代替plywood的好选择。


Fibreboard makers in for better times [ 18 Dec 06 ] The Star
THE price of fibreboards in the international market is on the uptrend, increasing almost 20% in the past three months.  
At the same time, demand for the product was also showing a positive trend, said Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd executive director Kuo Jen Chiu.
He said fibreboard manufacturers in Malaysia stood to benefit as 70% of their production was for export.
“One main factor which contributes to the trend is the ban on illegal logging activities by Indonesia,” Kuo said in an interview with StarBiz.  
Previously, the Indonesian authorities were not able to control illegal loggings partly because the penalties were not high.  
Kuo said Indonesia was now seriously tackling the issue due to constant pressures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Green Peace Movement.
He said as a result, very little illegal wood was available in the market, unlike in the past.  
Kuo said that previously, there used to be 120 factories producing plywood in Indonesia and the majority did not have a licence to harvest the woods.
“Strict enforcement by the Indonesian authorities have forced half of the factories to close down,” he said.
This has resulted in the shortage of plywood to produce wood-based products, thus pushing up demand for fibreboards.
He said fibreboard was the best alternative for natural woods for the furniture industry. The latter is becoming costlier and scarcer as more forests are cleared for development.
Kuo said the number of big trees, especially tropical wood species, was dropping; hence better prospects for engineered wood panels.  
He said consumers worldwide were concerned about cutting down trees from forests for the furniture industry.
“They want to preserve the environment and at the same time need to substitute for tropical woods for furniture making,” said Kuo.
He said the best substitute was fibreboards made of tree species cultivated from plantations.  
Kuo said plantation species grew faster and were renewable, unlike natural forest trees which could take 50 to 100 years before they could be harvested.
He said Malaysia still had huge land areas for rubber trees, and with more than 1.3 million acres of standing trees, the rubberwood supply could last up to 50 years.
He said trees grew faster in the tropical climate than in temperate countries and the local fibreboard industry did not compete with furniture makers when it came to rubberwood supply.
“We use all parts of the trees which we crush into woodchips, whereas furniture makers only go for the trunks with no defects,” Kuo said.
He said Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand still enjoyed the lowest cost for producing fibreboards in the world due to the abundant supply of raw materials.
Kuo added that China was not a threat in the fibreboard industry in the region as the production cost there was even higher that in the three countries.
He said the price of woodchips from the industry in China was high and the country had to rely on imports as the local supply could not meet the requirement.
Kuo said the main challenge for the Malaysian fibreboard industry in the future was to lower production cost.

http://evergreengroup.com.my/pop ... Cat=16&mid=1935

Mr.Business

Hmm...我觉得要继续讨论Evergreen，应该去OS兄的帖讨论才对 （长青, 外资，开赌。）

PS: 突然想起我还没买进Evergreen，我想我还是少讨论Evergreen比较好，哈。

mjchua

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 4-9-2007 07:41 PM 发表
Hmm...我觉得要继续讨论Evergreen，应该去OS兄的帖讨论才对 （长青, 外资，开赌。）

PS: 突然想起我还没买进Evergreen，我想我还是少讨论Evergreen比较好，哈。

我也是... 少討論 evergreen 比較好...

8years

也对，就在那儿长青, 外资，开赌讨论比较好。
要小心留意，可能又是千里马

origen

本想要加把嘴进来讨论，想不到出外转一个圈，吃个包回来就看到生意兄弟把我的心里话说完，并且有更多更详细资料。。谢谢了。。
也想请他把这些资料转去那个帖子。。再次谢谢了。。
八年老友，我们又坐上同一船。。这次。。看谁比较忍的。。哈哈！

8years

呵呵，要很久才能看到成绩哦。这次可真的要很长线了
在业绩没有变坏时我是不可能卖出的，现在只能等3个月后的报告了。预测应该会比这季差，就只看差多少吧了，那时再决定要不要加码

Mr.Business

放过去了。

http://chinese2.cari.com.my/myforum/viewthread.php?tid=958400&page=6&extra=page%3D1#pid32328806

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 5-9-2007 10:43 AM 编辑 ]

ZheHui

原帖由 origen 于 4-9-2007 09:32 PM 发表
本想要加把嘴进来讨论，想不到出外转一个圈，吃个包回来就看到生意兄弟把我的心里话说完，并且有更多更详细资料。。谢谢了。。
也想请他把这些资料转去那个帖子。。再次谢谢了。。
八年老友，我们又坐上 ...

好兄弟，這條船我都係有份坐 ge。
落船時，記得叫醒我啊。
近來趕 ot 太多惊睡著左。

piao2

咦，怎么大家上船没有叫我呀？？？
潜水太久了，换换口气

ZheHui

我也是潛了好久了。
馬來年找你喝茶。