买屋做屋奴,衝動購屋可能是人生最大的錯誤

振益咬

我在KL看到很多空置的办公楼

tindontin

中國社會科學院金融研究所副主任尹中立指出，目前中國房價的泡沫與20世紀80年代日本經歷的狀況相 ...
bbb339 发表于 23-2-2011 11:11 AM

zzzzzz。。。。还是没回答我的问题。。。。zzzz

eric1

回复 762# tindontin


    全球化时代：看美国房屋价格今暴跌9年新低

tindontin

回复  tindontin


    全球化时代：看美国房屋价格今暴跌9年新低
eric1 发表于 24-2-2011 12:29 AM

是么？。。。２００８年美国房产大跌，malaysia为何没有跌？？？
想和你说，经济不是一句全球化那么简单就可以解释。。。

bujua

房贷是经济体制的重要一环，没人借贷，银行，发展商， 生产商等等。。。都会倒闭，就会通货紧缩，到时候连租都成问题。现在的经济模型，房屋投资是经济的其中一种推动力。。。

If you can't beat the opponent,  or join them or you get defeated.不要硬说房屋不能投资，如果发展商不投资房屋（建房屋也是投资），您还有的租或买吗？

那间公司没有贷款？公司不贷款的话，您可能现在在烦租金了吧！！！

金是起价了，就当您在金价USD800 (per ounce, year 2008) 时买了3kilo (96.5ounce)的金，用了USD77,200 (RM270,200，1USD=3.5RM, year 2008), 现在金价USD1400 (per ounce),净赚 （1400-800）x 96.5 = USD 57,900 (RM176595, 1USD=3.05RM, year 2011).

看看皮皮的帖
http://cforum4.cari.com.my/viewt ... 0327&extra=page%3D4
RM200k up up up to RM400k. 升了RM200k, 2008 to 2011

两者有何不同，前者是要有cash RM270k方能做到，后者却利用了10%D/P (RM20k++)和银行的力量 (leverage)。。。聪明的您应该会算哪个投资比较划算吧。。。

bujua

Balance 一下全部观点。。。

＜第一次買房子就上手！＞

第一次買房子，有沒有辦法馬上上手呢？不管你有沒有辦法，都一定要讓它變成有辦法，因為錯了重來的代價實在太高昂了。一檔股票買錯了，就算股價腰斬一半，也頂多賠五、六萬元而已。一間房子買錯了，房價跌三成，就可能是一百五十萬元到三百萬元的驚人損失！

一個上班族，能有多少籌碼在房地產上置產失利呢？

所以，既然要買房子，就一定要買對來，千萬別衝動購屋，也別盲目購屋，甚至不敢購屋。這三種狀況都是錯誤的置產觀念。

想買房子的人，一定要先弄清楚一件事情：我為什麼要買房子？是要自己住？還是投資？還是投機？

自住，牽涉到理財行為。投資，牽涉到房租收益率問題。投機，則攸關房價是否會繼續上揚。我看市面上過半數的人，都被房屋的投機觀給拉著鼻子走，剩下三成，會謹守租金收益率的教條，而只有不到兩成的人，會從正確的理財觀念來看購屋問題。

何為正確的理財觀念？理財牽涉到生活，生活牽涉到個人生涯規劃與家庭規劃問題。如果一個人連自己的事業方向都弄不清楚，我會建議這種年輕朋友，千萬別購屋置產，因為你的後半生只會被房子綁住，而不是人生擁有一間舒適的屋子。

我看過不少人，買了間房子以後，工作、配偶、家人、小孩都要遷就屋子，而不是屋子牽就生活的發展。這就很怪了，為何人生要被房子給綁住呢？究其原因，當初可能是貪圖郊區房價便宜而買到鳥不生蛋的地方，又或者急於在市區購屋而買了捷運周邊會漲的小屋子。結果，被套牢與沒被套牢的結果都一樣---不捨得賣房子以配合新的生活樣態。

信奉把房子當不動產，終身都不該賣掉的人，這想法並沒有錯。但它的配套觀念是：第一次買房子就要買對，就要買到十全九美，一輩子都不能有遺憾才行。

否則，我們應該把房屋變成投資觀與投機觀：把自己住得不理想的房屋出租出去，或者，高價脫手給他人。

我看多數的購屋者，很少有弄清楚房地產理財、投資與投機的差異。包括專家在內，也把房屋投資客與投機客給弄混淆了。比如說，最近中央銀行積極打房，其實打的是房屋投機客，不是投資客。

從投資觀點看台北市的一般住宅，購屋款當分母、年租金收益當分子，除下來，幾乎都低到2%以下，跟買張公債的收益率差不多，也接近定存水準。養一間屋子，要花時間收租金、修繕與容忍沒租出去的空窗期，2%的租金收益率合理嗎？哈，相信頭腦好一點的投資客都不會做這種0報酬或負報酬的生意。

但你一定會反問：但房價有可能再漲個一到三成啊！

對！這就是很好的房屋投機觀，簡單講就是在房價上進行低買高賣。低買高賣的成本與風險有兩個：房價下跌與資金積壓成本。就跟投機股票一樣，最大的成本除了股價下跌外，就是融資成本了（或者說資金的機會成本）。

很多人連股票投機都不太內行了，我們就很難相信他在房地產投機上能撈到什麼便宜。既然根據我的觀察，半數以上的上班族都是被房市投機觀給拉著鼻子走，而從十個投機往往八個失敗來看，40%的購屋者是失敗、套牢者，便不難想見（這類人多數摸摸鼻子，自認倒楣，不敢上報宣揚自己的失敗，所以很少人覺悟到房地產投機的可怕）。

至於三成會根據房租報酬來當包租公、包租婆者，往往只有一半成功率。為何如此呢？因為上班族平常在＂上班＂，如何有餘裕管理房子呢？一旦一間房子收不到租金三個月，損失率將非常驚人。空窗期半年，幾乎就算賠錢。空窗期一年，則就算房價上漲率也往往很難壓過一年0現金收入的損失。

所以投資房屋也不簡單。但如果好好做功課，成功率可以提高到一半以上。折算起來，有15%的房地產投資者算成功者。加上10%的投機成功者，則在房地產市場真正賺到錢的人（是指真正有現金到手，而非紙上富貴），大約有25％。這25%當中，不乏投資加投機兩得意者，將成為房市最大獲益者，投資的報酬率將大幅躍升到五成、一倍或兩倍、十倍以上。

因為房地產的購屋成本高，即使是五年賺五成，也是非常驚人的資本利得。這就是為何，房地產投資人人都愛，因為賺得很快。

但可惜，能第一次上手投資（與投機）房屋，就能成為25%成功者的人，並不多，失敗率則高居55%（40%投機失利＋15%投資報酬不佳）。

對了，您可能會懷疑我漏掉了20%的理財者，也就是自住者。其實自住是最簡單的買屋觀了，衡量自己的生活方式，再掂掂自己的荷包，在住得舒服與購屋預算間，折算出一個平衡點，然後積極在房地產市場套套看，看哪裡有合適的標的。等標的浮現，價格又在自己能接受的價位裡，就果斷出手，何必管未來房價是跌？是漲？房屋租得出去？或租不出去呢？

從理財的觀念看房地產，是最簡單的觀念了。自己住得舒服、買得起又住得健康的房子，就是好房子。但能這樣想的人，竟然只有20%。這20%的人，只要不看走眼，不買到漏水屋、海沙屋、輻射屋、偷工減料屋與樓下有特種營業屋，大概都能住得開心又滿意，購屋成功率也高達8成以上。

換言之，16%的自住屋者，都算成功購屋者。只有約4%的人，算失敗者。至於16%的自住者，因為房價增值而賺到帳上富貴，固然很開心，但別忘了，你賣掉了中古好房子，可無法再用同一筆錢買到一模一樣的新屋好房喔！所以，看得到卻用不到的紙上富貴，根本不能算賺。

不過話說回來，理財的價值往往最高。如果上班族能拿一間好房屋當核心資產，則無論何時，當他發生資金調度困難時，房屋就是最佳的融資工具。根據＜管好你的錢--一生受用的理財計劃＞一書所述，理財的重點是在控管＂現金流量＂，而一間好屋子，就絕對是能創造現金的好標的---不管是融資、出租或售出。

從理財的角度看購屋，其實非常簡單，就是從自己的居住需求與購屋預算下手，多去看房子，但卻別被房價給矇住眼睛。不管房價會漲、或跌，都不關你屁事。永遠掌握一個心法---讓好房子自動與你相遇，則你的購屋成功率會極高，煩惱率會極低。

如果找不到你買得起的好房子，那就得等。跟等一個好男人或好女人一樣，等待永遠是值得的。但別忘了，是敞開心房等，而不是每天罵高房價，消極地等。

從理財的角度看購屋，第一次上手就變得非常簡單與容易。只要明白自己的需求與預算，然後堅守忍耐原則，一直給他看屋看下去。想著這是一輩子只許成功一次的事情，相信你會謹慎許多，也積極許多。

第一次買房子，忘掉投資與投機，會是我給新手購屋者的最佳建議。

振益咬

Balance 一下全部观点。。。

＜第一次買房子就上手！＞

第一次買房子，有沒有辦法馬上上手呢？不管你 ...
bujua 发表于 24-2-2011 05:04 PM

    为买而买的人是天真的

振益咬

回复  tindontin


    全球化时代：看美国房屋价格今暴跌9年新低
eric1 发表于 24-2-2011 12:29 AM

    房价有涨必有跌

eric1

房价有涨必有跌
振益咬 发表于 25-2-2011 06:15 PM

    亞洲股市崩盤

接下來是樓市

kitkatlow

亞洲股市崩盤

接下來是樓市
eric1 发表于 26-2-2011 02:08 AM

非常好。
1998 年货币经济风暴，本地很多公司都倒闭裁员，klci 从 1380+ 跌到 250+。
房市呢？kl 一带大概跌了20% 左右，维持了大概半年，房价又攀升回去之前的价位，1999 年继续上扬。

2008 年次贷经济风暴，本地影响不大，但klci 从1500+ 跌倒850+。
房市呢？kl 一带几乎没有变动，影响不到10%，维持也大概半年，房价在2009年飙升，直到现在还没停。


你说的亚洲股灾，会有多严重？因为就算指数跌到800 点，房市也似乎不会变动。除非你说指数跌到250 点啦。

你认为这次股灾会跌到250 吗？最好低过，因为就算房市跌20% 30%，都依然比前年的价钱高。

kk123

非常好。
1998 年货币经济风暴，本地很多公司都倒闭裁员，klci 从 1380+ 跌到 250+。
房市呢？kl 一 ...
kitkatlow 发表于 26-2-2011 08:56 AM

非常好的分析!

eric1

非常好。
1998 年货币经济风暴，本地很多公司都倒闭裁员，klci 从 1380+ 跌到 250+。
房市呢？kl 一 ...
kitkatlow 发表于 26-2-2011 08:56 AM

    外資大舉撤離亞洲

kitkatlow

外資大舉撤離亞洲
eric1 发表于 26-2-2011 01:43 PM

外资在我国持有多少产业？

我们买房子租房子有多少次会遇到外国业主？

eric1

外资在我国持有多少产业？

我们买房子租房子有多少次会遇到外国业主？
kitkatlow 发表于 26-2-2011 01:50 PM

  你没有遇到不代表没有

kitkatlow

你没有遇到不代表没有
eric1 发表于 27-2-2011 09:30 PM

说说你遇到的来听听，你遇到100个业主，当中有多少个是外国人？外国人倾向我国什么产业，什么用途，什么地区，说来听听。他们的holding power 普遍有多高？普遍持有多少个产业？来自什么国家？说来听听。外国业主在我国过去三十年的投资状况，撤资状况，对我国经济带来的影响有多少，说来听听。
顺便让大家看看你对产业的认识有多高，看你对产业的见解，除了那一句菜鸟级的”亞洲股市崩盤外資大舉撤離亞洲“之外，还有什么高见。

bujua

2011 no less exciting  
         
By Au Foong Yee  
Sunday, 23 January 2011 00:00   

Depending on who you are talking to, the Malaysian property market will continue to head north or sail into stormy waters.

Interestingly, those who went into the market recently tend to see the market extending its climb next year. Conversely, those who missed the boat say a bubble is on the brink of bursting. On the sidelines are the property consultants who, unsurprisingly, are mostly bulls. Developers, understandably, will prefer to keep their feelings to themselves.

Be it stocks and shares or real estate, the goal of investment seems simple enough — buy low and sell high. In reality, this is not as simple as it sounds. Rapid globalisation and a blurring of boundaries have exposed our market to the vagaries of local and global sentiment. Timing, it cannot be emphasised enough, can make or break an investment.

To put the Malaysian property market into context, prices surged in 2010 even though the increase paled in comparison with that of our neighbours. But the rise in prices is not felt across the board. The clear beneficiaries are the more strategically located traditional townships that are playing catch-up with the attention-grabbing newer addresses in the economic hubs.

As for addresses where prices are seemingly taking a breather, this is not altogether unhealthy; they would have got their share of investor attention not too long ago. Already, prices in the Kuala Lumpur City Centre, for instance, are slowly but surely making a comeback.

Like it or not, property prices will continue to move up — think inflation, supply-demand and growing insistence on better-quality buildings. It is a fallacy that prices will stagnate. More so, as Malaysia strives to move up the value chain. It is more important that a bubble is not built up and that foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in.
Affordability is relative. While it is no longer possible to buy a landed two-storey terraced house in the more accessible parts of Kuala Lumpur or Petaling Jaya for under RM500,000, there are always the older apartments and condominiums for the picking.

Another option would be addresses further away from the city.

The enhanced connectivity to be provided by the RM36 billion mass rapid transit (MRT), on which construction will soon start, will help in this regard.

More than that, the MRT will effectively open up new tracts for both work and living and in the process, create a multiplier effect.

Infrastructure enhancement aside, it is vital we do not take our eyes off wooing FDI. Conducive investment guidelines are key, but precise execution is even more vital. For the people, there must be total buy-in on why Malaysia is courting  FDI.

2011 promises to be no less interesting and  dynamic for the property sector, what with mergers that have created mega-property development companies and the anticipated thrust of the development of Iskandar Malaysia.

In the heart of KL, it is still too soon to expect any significant physical changes in the prime Kampung Baru area with its fragmented land ownership. It is noteworthy, however, that the Kampung Baru Development Corporation 2010 Bill was tabled for reading at the Dewan Rakyat earlier this month with debate scheduled for March 2011. The establishment of Kampung Baru Development Corp is in sight.

Meanwhile the MRT, aimed at solving Greater KL/Klang Valley’s transport woes, will cover some 60km and have 35 stations, with work on the first line linking Sungei Buloh to Kajang to begin in July next year. The enhanced accessibility will no doubt heighten the potential of the 3,400 acres of Rubber Research Institute of Malaysia land, which the EPF has been given the mandate to develop. The MRT — the largest infrastructure project ever undertaken in Malaysia — will be government-owned.

Let us not forget that the MRT is but one of the many pieces of the puzzle necessary to make Malaysia a preferred real estate destination. A lot of work remains to be done.

bujua

2011更多的外资可能会进来，而不是撤。。。

In an exclusive interview with iProperty.com.my, Tim Murphy, IP Global’s founder and CEO, a Hong Kong-based property investment firm, gives straight answers to some difficult questions.


Q1. With several mega projects such as the MRT and the 100-storey Warisan Merdeka due to commence this year, how would this affect the property market specifically in the Klang Valley?

These initiatives are clear signals that the Malaysian government has long-term plans to transform Klang Valley into the next Kuala Lumpur. Increased accessibility and another iconic skyscraper – parodying the Petronas Twin Towers – are evidence of a metropolitan emergence. The picture looks promising for the property market in Klang but it’s still too early to tell. From an investor’s point of view, the government has its work cut out to convince us of the area’s business potential. We don’t want to have a situation where we have an oversupply of vacant spaces.

Q2: How do you think the coming elections would impact the Malaysian property market this year?

The coming elections will be a major test of unity within the current ruling Barisan National (BN) party. A strong showing of rapport will help deter any form of widespread “panic” which would inevitably lead to undesired speculation in the property market. We don’t want to replicate the situation where internal disputes caused the BN dearly.

Q3: What are the factors that could potentially derail the Malaysian property market this year?

There is a danger that current inflationary prices in Hong Kong and Singapore might cause property investors to flock to Malaysia. In fact, there is a high possibility that it will happen given its relatively low prices.

Q4: What do you think is the cause of the lack of “bubble” in the Malaysian property market while its surrounding neighbours such as Singapore and even Thailand experience property bubbles?

Both Singapore and Thailand have unique positioning of its markets. Singapore is Southeast Asia’s financial hub, equipped with sound policy and infrastructure to support investor interests. Thailand’s tourist-friendly economy caters to high net-worth individuals who seek a work-life balance. As such, complementing residential developments have sprout up to meet these demands. For example, there has been an increase in the number of luxury apartments sprouting up in Singapore, while Thailand on the other hand, has seen a rise in the number of private home villas within popular tourist hotspots like Phuket. Until Malaysia’s new Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) was announced, there were little clear determinants to credibly make the country more attractive than its neighbouring counterparts.

Q5: Do you see hot money coming into the Malaysian property market this year? If yes, where are they from and which types of properties are they going for?

Definitely. There is a growing class of affluent middle-aged adults who have the financial capital to live independently – away from their families. The current high ratio of 6.5 people per housing unit is a statistic that reeks of an untapped market.

Q6: Where do you think are the potential property hot spots in Malaysia?

Most of our investment portfolio is still very much centred within Kuala Kumpur. All eyes are now on Klang Valley.

Q7: What is your opinion of the Iskandar Economic Region?

I think it looks promising. Given the extent of plans put in place, there is no doubt that a lot of thought went into it. What needs to be done now is to ensure that measures are taken to keep the region sustainable once it fully opens. If that can be done, the Iskandar Economic Region will undoubtedly pose serious competition to neighbouring Singapore.

Q8: What measures could the Malaysian government take to attract more foreign investors into our property market?

Inflation figures should be kept in check
Infrastructure expansion to increase accessibility in suburban areas
Laws that protect property owners should be strictly adhered to and enforced fairly.
Q9: What steps should Penang Island take in order for its development to be sustainable over the long-term?

Penang Island needs to gradually move away from a manufacturing-driven economy to a more services-oriented one. In my opinion, banking and tourism should be the new focus.

Q10: Should Malaysian developers switch to Build-Then Sell (BTS) concept instead of the present system where buyers finance the construction of the properties?

At a modest 5.3% price growth per annum, Malaysian developers might run the risk of having to reduce their prices under a BTS scheme if units don’t sell as quickly as they expect them to. Pre-construction financing is safer, it stimulates demand, and provides a preemptive risk filter for potential mortgage defaults.

Q11: Do you think interest rates will go up this year?

The Klang Valley injection and Iskandar Economic Region will churn billions in the construction industry. Given that these are state driven initiatives, interest rates will remain low to encourage the much needed lending capital for banks to offer building loans to construction-related firms.

Q12: What are the usual complaints by foreign investors about the Malaysian property market?

The past few years have seen near stagnant or sluggish growth in the Malaysian property market which has been relatively unattractive compared with other markets in the region

eric1

2011更多的外资可能会进来，而不是撤。。。

In an exclusive interview with iProperty.com.my, Tim Mur ...
bujua 发表于 28-2-2011 12:21 AM

    卖房子的人当然这样说

   你们不买他吃什么

bujua

卖房子的人当然这样说

   你们不买他吃什么
eric1 发表于 28-2-2011 07:49 PM

    放心，还有很多租的人会养他。。。

eric1

放心，还有很多租的人会养他。。。
bujua 发表于 28-2-2011 09:38 PM

    东西样样涨价

     囤房屋的要付出更大的利息代价