Technical News|Gdmfx Brokerage|Daily

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: ECB RATE, BRITISH RETAIL SALES – A FULL DAY AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: Overall the pair had a slow day yesterday and neither side was in clear control. The U.S. Building Permits showed a larger number than forecast and this strengthened the US Dollar but to a limited extent.

Technical Outlook

The picture remains bearish but it looks like now the pair is deciding the next direction. The support at 1.0955 was almost touched, without being seriously threatened but as long as the pair is printing lower lows, lower highs and is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we favour the short side. Today’s direction will be mainly affected by the ECB Meeting so the technical will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will announce the interest rate. No change is expected from the current 0.00% but the event usually creates volatility anyway. Later at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference during which he will discuss the reasons that determined the rate decision and then will answer journalists’ questions.

This second part of the conference is usually when volatility surges and the Euro is prone to sudden changes of direction, depending on the President’s attitude and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change showed that fewer people applied for unemployment-related benefits and this slightly strengthened the Pound.

Technical Outlook

The pair hovered close to 1.2325 resistance for the most part of yesterday’s trading session and now the Stochastic has entered overbought, increasing the chances of a bounce lower. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity and will offer resistance. A break of 1.2325 will open the door for 1.2480, while a bounce will make 1.2090 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are today’s main highlight for the Pound. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is a change of 0.3% compared to the previous -0.2%. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound given that sales made at retail levels represent the main part of the entire consumer spending.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EURO SHOWS MIXED REACTION AFTER ECB, US DOLLAR ENDS THE WEEK IN CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB left the rate unchanged at 0.00% and Mario Draghi’s press conference triggered erratic movement. The initial Euro strength soon faded and the Dollar broke support.

Technical Outlook

The initial climb found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and soon after, the pair broke the support at 1.0955. If the bears can keep price below this level, we will probably see a move closer to 1.0900 but we must note that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are approaching oversold and this may favour bullish retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is the second day of the European Economic Summit and this may be a reason for increased volatility but other than that, there’s nothing major on the economic calendar.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales numbers came out below analysts’ expectations and this weakened the Pound, generating a bearish session and a bounce at resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.2325 level. The Pound is also weakened by disappointing economic data so we may see a drop closer to 1.2090. Both oscillators are pointing downwards and the pair is in a downtrend, thus increasing the chances of a move lower. As long as the pair is trading below resistance and below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases but the European Economic Summit can affect the Pound so we recommend caution.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BEARS MAINTAIN OVERALL CONTROL, MINOR RETRACEMENTS EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears remained in control for most of Friday’s trading session and continued the momentum started Thursday during Draghi’s press conference. June’s low was taken out and this represents an important victory for the sellers.

Technical Outlook

Price broke 1.0910 support and established a new minor level at 1.0860 but now both oscillators are oversold so we expect bearish movement to stall. The next important target is 1.0800 but we are likely to see bullish retracements until price gets there. The previous support at 1.0910 may turn into resistance but if the pair moves above it, we don’t expect 1.0955 to be tested today.

Fundamental Outlook

Eurozone’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs are both released today at 8:00 am GMT; these are surveys of purchasing managers from the manufacturing and services sectors respectively that try to gauge the opinion of said managers regarding the health of these sectors. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is often limited; today’s forecast for the Manufacturing PMI is 52.7 and for the Services PMI is 52.4.


GBP/USD

Movement on the pair has slowed down significantly lately but price is still sliding lower, trading below resistance and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to remain below the 50 EMA and below the resistance at 1.2325 for the entire day but the latest impulse (seen on the lower time frames) is bullish, so it’s very likely to see a test of the mentioned resistance zone but even if the pair breaches it, the upside movement should be limited. To the downside, key support sits at 1.2090 but we don’t expect price to move that far.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases for today, thus the Pound may be in for a slow, ranging day.

GDMFX

FED升息在望美元扶摇直上

>>一、日内基本面分析

    周一美国方面公布的良好经济数据和美联储官员年内的升息言论再度支撑美元。数据显示，美国10月Markit制造业PMI初值53.2，为2015年10月来最高；预期51.5，前值51.5。 多位美联储官员发表公开言论支持美联储年内升息。今年FOMC票委，美国圣路易斯联储主席布拉德Bullard周一重申此前观点，即需要一次加息。Bullard称，通胀率将升至2%。低利率可能将在未来2-3年内得以维持；无风险回报率非常低，且预计不会很快上升。我们的预测是通胀和失业率接近目标；经济增速预期维持低位。

    美联储升息前景始终是投资者炒作的话题，美元指数维持在九个月高位震荡整理，当前焦点转移到本周五美国GDP以及下周美国非农和利率决议。原油方面，OPEC下月召开会议前，伊拉克发声表示不愿意减产，伊拉克的发声使得市场又在怀疑联合减产的可能性，这施压油价在周一的交投中下跌接近1%。具体市场上，美元指数九个月高点附近整理，美联储年内升息预期以及美国大选希拉里暂时领先都支撑美元；欧元兑美元在1.09下方暂时企稳，良好的欧元区数据以及葡萄牙、西班牙形势好转限制了欧元跌势；金价震荡收跌，受美联储12月升息预期打压；油价下跌接近1%，伊拉克不愿减产给OPEC限产前景蒙阴。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

截止10月18日,ICE美元指数投机净多头增加11873份(或35%)至45422份。
截止10月18日,欧元投机净空头增加15796份(或17%)至109268份。
截止10月18日,瑞郎投机净空头增加6969份(或74%)至16377份。

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：黄金主要受下降趋势线压制，这也是我敢于周初看空并坚决做空的原因之一，当然更重要的原因是周线没有跌完，然后1274和1277的阻力明确，现在阻力明确并且已经二度测试，今天要做的事情非常简单，直接做空看跌到1250一带，连接低点1241和1246，趋势线支撑在1253附近，这是空头短期目标，是否今天跌到这里有待观察，这主要取决于行情节奏快慢，但做空不会错，操作上我不会等反弹空，我知道你们就喜欢简单粗暴，就好这一口，那继续给你们来个刺激的；日内走势，黄金现价1264空，止损1269，目标1255。

Crude-Oil:昨天美盘回落到位49.6，隔夜价格回升上来，现在又是较为中间的价位，我个人认为原油这种高位震荡操作起来有点难，首先是区间太大了，另外如果按照高位震荡上升来看，似乎又有走弱的一些迹象，但实际上前面两周也有这样的迹象，结果做空都以出新高终结，现在行情再度回落，真要操作那将区间放大一些，不要追求方向，注重进场点位，比如昨天高点51一线，那么这里做空止损设置51.5，应该比较安全，下方49.5一带的支撑，在50下方可以轻仓多，按照这种方式操作相对安全一些，不过原油我个人仍然倾向于看空，所以操作会尽量高空为主；日内走势，美国原油51空，止损51.5，目标49.8！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种                 方  向         入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.0900          1.0750          1.0930
GBPUSD              空         1.2230          1.2110          1.2270
AUDUSD              空         0.7630          0.7500          0.7660  
USDJPY               多         103.60          103.30           105.20
XAUUSD              多         1261.0          1257.0          1285.0
XAGUSD              空         17.70           17.00           17.90
Crude-Oil             多         50.00           49.50            51.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期         时间          事件                                                         重要性                     前值       市场预测
10/25       22:00    美国10月咨商会消费者信心指数                      高                     104.1             101  
10/25      22:00     美国10月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数                  低                      -8                   -4
10/25      21:45     欧洲经济研讨会：英国脱欧对民众、欧盟及欧洲经济的影响
10/25      22:35     英国央行行长卡尼在上议院经济事务委员会接受质询
10/25      23:30     欧洲央行行长德吉发表主题为稳定、公正和货币政策的讲话

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EURO STILL IN A RANGE, POUND WEAK AGAINST THE US DOLLAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had another mixed trading session, where the Euro initially strengthened on the back of an optimistic German IFO survey, then price dropped below support only to bounce higher later on.

Technical Outlook

The US Dollar is showing strength against most of its peers but is reluctant to take this pair lower; however, we expect 1.0860 support to be taken out, probably today. To the upside, the pair is capped by 1.0910 resistance, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which we don’t expect to be broken today. Some form of upside movement is likely to be seen, because the oscillators are still close to their oversold levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is pretty calm in terms of economic releases, with the only notable one being the U.S. New Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show 601K, lower than the previous 609K (annualized numbers). Higher numbers show increased activity on the house market and usually strengthen the greenback but to a limited extent.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened and dropped more than 150 pips, touching the support at 1.2090 but soon bounced higher on Carney’s comments.

Technical Outlook

It’s clear now that rejection is present near 1.2090 and that the bears lack the necessary strength to break this support, at least for the time being. For today, we expect a move up, to the zone where yesterday’s drop initiated, and maybe a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a break of 1.2090 support will probably bring in more sellers.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. housing data.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR LOSES GROUND AHEAD OF DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RELEASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the bulls completed a retracement to the upside and the pair moved above 1.0910, touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Some US Dollar weakness was generated by a lower than expected number for the New Home Sales, but nothing spectacular.

Technical Outlook

Price action shows clear rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the Stochastic is rapidly approaching overbought. This is a good place for the downtrend to resume and price to head back into 1.0860 for another attempt to break this support. If the bulls manage to close a full 4-hour candle above the 50 period EMA, we are likely to see a move closer to 1.1000 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the United States will release the Durable Goods Orders that are expected to show a change of 0.1%. Goods with a live expectancy of more than 3 years are considered “durable” and a higher value for this indicator suggests increased economic activity, which often leads to a stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was mostly bullish but the pair slowed down considerably compared to the previous day.

Technical Outlook

The pair is struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if the bulls succeed to do so, we will likely see a touch of 1.2325 resistance. Such a break would mean the pair is out of the horizontal channel that contained it for the last period and would make 1.2480 the next destination; otherwise, the first target is the lower part of the channel: 1.2090.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Gross Domestic Product is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a 0.3% change, compared to the previous 0.7%. Since the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance, higher numbers usually strengthen the currency and the opposite is true for lower numbers.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP: A STRONG FINISH TO A DULL WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Durable Goods Orders didn’t have a major impact on price action yesterday and the pair remained in a relatively tight range, capped by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The pair approached the 50 period EMA for the second time in a short while and it looks like the bears are trying to push price lower again but currently they lack steam. The level at 1.0910 is not broken decisively but once it’s broken, we expect 1.0860 to be threatened. If the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the upside, the bulls will gain the upper hand for short term movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important release of the day is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT: the Preliminary version of the German Consumer Price Index. This is the main gauge of inflation and has a strong impact on the Euro because the German economy is an important pillar of the entire Eurozone; that being said, higher numbers than the forecast change of 0.1%, can strengthen the single currency.

On the US Dollar side we have the Advance version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The GDP is an economy’s main measure of performance, thus higher values than the anticipated 2.5% (previous 1.4%) usually give a boost to the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British GDP showed yesterday a higher value than expected but still below the previous release. This created somewhat mixed movement, with the Pound strengthening initially then dropping after a bounce at the moving average.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average proved once again too strong for the bulls to break so now we can expect the pair to reach the lower part of the horizontal channel, located at 1.2090. This support proved strong in the past so a break will only come if the greenback strengthens from positive economic data or the Pound weakens for various reasons. If the 50 EMA is broken to the upside, we will probably see a touch of the resistance at 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major news releases so the pair will be influenced by the U.S. GDP and the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA KICK-STARTS THE WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s better than expected U.S. GDP was overshadowed by the reopening of the Clinton email case by the FBI. As a result the greenback weakened and the pair shot up through resistance.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0955 were both broken and now the short term bias is bullish. We expect a move into the zone near 1.1025 but we must note that the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought and the pair is still in a downtrend; this means that once (and if) 1.1025 resistance is hit, we expect a move to the downside, possibly into 1.0955 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the German Retail sales are released and expected to change 0.2% compared to the previous -0.4%. Higher values usually strengthen the Euro because sales made at retail outlets represent the major part of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

At 10:00 am GMT the Flash Estimate Eurozone Consumer Price Index is released, anticipated to show a change of 0.5% (previous 0.4%). The indicator tracks changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually a higher reading brings Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Advance version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed a change of 2.9%, which was better than the previous (1.4%) and the forecast (2.5%). Despite all this the US Dollar couldn’t make any advances and instead weakened, mainly due to the reopening of Clinton’s email case.

Technical Outlook

The pair came close to 1.2090 support and bounced higher, into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but movement wasn’t very decisive. If the effect of Friday’s events will extend to today’s session, we will probably see a break of the moving average and a move closer to 1.2325 but if the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we will probably see another attempt to break 1.2090.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and this may contribute to a slow, ranging session.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STAGES A COMEBACK, MANUFACTURING DATA EYED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Retail Sales disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -1.4%, worse than the anticipated 0.2% and the previous -0.3%. This stopped the Euro’s bullish advance and brought the pair back into support.

Technical Outlook

The pair retraced yesterday into the support offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way it behaves here will probably decide the next direction. A break of the moving average would show that the US Dollar is still strong and would open the door for a resumption of the downtrend, making 1.0910 the first target, followed by 1.0860. On the other hand, a bounce would make 1.0995 (1.1000) the first bullish target of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Italian and French banks are closed today in observance of All Saints Day so we may see low volatility coming from the Euro. The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 51.8, slightly better than the previous 51.5. Higher numbers show optimism among purchasing managers form the manufacturing sector and usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair had a pretty slow day, with a bearish bias. The lack of economic releases contributed to the low volatility and price remained below dynamic resistance.

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then bounced lower again; however, both the bears and bulls lack the willingness to take control of the pair so we expect the ranging period to continue. A break of the 50 EMA would probably bring in more buyers and take price closer to 1.2325, while to the downside 1.2090 remains the first support.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 54.6, lower than the previous 55.4. This index acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the currency but to a limited extent.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR LOSES GROUND, FED MAY HINT TO DECEMBER HIKE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bulls almost entirely, as the Euro strengthened and pushed easily through resistance. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI matched analysts’ expectation, thus the release didn’t create US Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook

After an almost perfect bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair jumped and broke through the resistance at 1.0995 and 1.1025. We expect the current impulse to continue through 1.1060 and towards 1.1100 but a lot will depend on FOMC’s stance regarding interest rates. The two oscillators are overbought for the second time in a short while and this suggests that a retracement is due in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change report, which shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month, excluding the farming sector and government. Usually a higher number than the anticipated 166K strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is not as high as the NFP released Friday.

At 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release their Statement that contains their decision on the interest rate as well as insights into the reasons that determined it. The rate is not expected to change (currently <0.50%) but any hints about a December hike will strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI came close to the expected number, so the impact was mild. The pair had another dull session yesterday, without major developments.

Technical Outlook

Price is still confined by the channel created by 1.2090 support and 1.2325 resistance but it has moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the first time in a long while. This may suggest that the buyers are trying to make a run for the top of the channel but a clear bias cannot be seen. The Stochastic is overbought and this may call for limited bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 51.9. Higher numbers for this indicator usually suggest optimism regarding economic conditions in the Construction sector, strengthening the Pound, but the impact is often mild.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: FED KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED, BOE EXPECTED TO DO THE SAME

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a bullish trading session ahead of the Fed rate announcement and the Dollar was little changed after the release. The FOMC kept rates at the current <0.50% but a December hike is not off the table.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both deep in overbought territory and this calls for a bearish retracement; adding to this view is the fact that the resistance at 1.1100 is not yet broken decisively. However, if the pair moves clearly above 1.1100, it will probably touch 1.1150 during today’s session and once that happens, the chances of a move lower will increase. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is today’s only notable release that can affect the pair. This survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing industry and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The announcement is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 56.2.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and had a bullish bias for almost the entire session. An optimistic Construction PMI added Pound strength.

Technical Outlook

Price remained above the 50 period EMA but the bulls didn’t manage to break 1.2325 resistance and that leaves us with a bounce-or-break scenario. If the horizontal channel will be broken, we expect more buyers to join and to take price closer to 1.2480; otherwise, we expect an encounter with the moving average and possibly with the bottom of the channel during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release of the day is the Bank of England Inflation Report that will offer the bank’s projections regarding inflation and economic expectations for the next 2 years. The release is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and at the same time the BOE will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%). The Monetary Policy Summary comes out at the same time, containing information about the reasons that determined the rate vote.

Half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the contents of the Inflation Report. All the events mentioned can have a very strong impact on the Pound, so caution is recommended.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE WITH NFP IN THE FOCUS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The euro-dollar pair retraced lower yesterday after hitting a high of 1.1125. The bulls remain in control of medium term movement and we expect further upside.

Technical Outlook

The retracement lower seen yesterday was signalled earlier by the deep overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is still bullish. For the moment it looks like 1.1060 offers good support and it will probably push the pair higher, through 1.1100. Yesterday’s high at 1.1125 will act as first resistance, followed by 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is without a doubt the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This is the most important jobs related data, which shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month. Usually the impact on the US Dollar is high, with bigger numbers strengthening it. The forecast for today’s release is 174K, while the previous was 156K.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s High Court ruled yesterday that the Government cannot bypass the Parliament in triggering the Brexit and this generated Pound strength, taking the pair into resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair hit 1.2480 resistance yesterday and it may pause here for a while or even come down, depending on the NFP reading. The Relative Strength Index is well above its 70 level, showing an overbought condition and this may increase the chances of a bounce lower at resistance. If this happens, the first support may be offered by 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major releases today but the U.S. jobs data will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair, so we recommend caution at the time of release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN TURMOIL AHEAD OF U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

EUR/USD

Forex news: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report released Friday showed a number of 161K new jobs, which was lower than the anticipated 174K. This triggered a move up after some mixed action at the time of release.

Technical Outlook

The bulls remain in control for now and we expect an encounter with 1.1150 resistance during today’s trading session. The Relative Strength Index is overbought and is showing bearish divergence: price made a higher high while the oscillator shows a lower high. This is a sign of reversal so we may see a bounce lower if 1.1150 holds. The first bearish target is 1.1100 but if this level is hit, the pair may resume bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings will be today’s only notable event. These are attended by European personalities from the political and financial fields but are closed to the press until they have concluded. A formal statement, containing details of the meetings is released at the end of the day but often participants talk to the press even before the end of the meetings. Volatility may be generated and caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The pair continued higher Friday, mostly due to a disappointing Non-Farm Employment report, which triggered Dollar weakness and allowed price to climb above resistance.

Technical Outlook

The move above 1.2480 brought the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic in deep overbought territory, making us anticipate a retracement back below this level. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish but this doesn’t exclude a pullback lower to clear the overbought condition. Once this retracement is complete, the bulls will probably move the pair higher if the Moving Average holds.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY

EUR/USD

Forex news: Yesterday the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred during the previous days and the pair retraced closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The week opened with a gap that wasn’t yet filled completely

Technical Outlook

The next direction depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a bounce higher once the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is hit. Yesterday’s retracement was expected and signalled early by the overbought condition of the oscillators as well as the presence of bearish divergence but the medium term uptrend is still in place. The levels to watch are 1.1150 as resistance and the 50 EMA as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States will decide their next President and the US Dollar will be heavily influenced by the Election. Other than that, there are no other major economic indicators but we expect strong volatility and thus, we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

The pair had a bearish trading session yesterday as the greenback strengthened against the Pound. Price is now trading below the resistance at 1.2480, but still above the moving average.

Technical Outlook

We expect an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once and if price gets there, the chances of another push higher will increase. The 50 EMA is very close to the horizontal support at 1.2325, creating a confluence zone that will be tough for the bears to break. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the U.S. Presidential Election.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, with a forecast change of 0.5% compared to the previous 0.2%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and higher values suggest increased economic activity, thus a stronger Pound.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH. ELECTION RACE COMES TO AN END

EUR/USD

Forex news: The United States Electoral race still didn’t have a clear winner at the time of writing and the pair remained inside a tight range for most of the day. Volatility is still expected, as soon as we come nearer to a clear result.

Technical Outlook

The next direction still depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election so we cannot make an accurate prediction. For now the pair is having trouble moving away from the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and looks like both sides are reluctant to commit to a direction. The levels to watch are at the time of writing 1.1060 as immediate resistance and 1.1025 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major indicators on the economic calendar but surely the U.S. Dollar will continue to be influenced by the result of the Election and volatility will be high.


GBP/USD

Despite a better than expected value for the British Manufacturing Production, the Pound weakened slightly against the greenback yesterday and the pair touched the 50 EMA ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election conclusion.

Technical Outlook

The pair is struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and probably the result of the U.S. Election will be the catalyst that will decide the next move. The current important levels are 1.2480 as resistance and 1.2325 as support, with the 50 EMA playing an important role as well. So far the picture remains blurry until a definitive election result is announced.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases on the British economic calendar so we expect the pair’s direction to be decided by the U.S. Election results and the technical aspect.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR REACTS POSITIVELY TO THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The United States has a new president and the result created a strong reaction, as expected. After a spike, the US Dollar recovered and erased all losses, even advancing against its counterpart.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the Trump win was well received by the markets and now the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, with strong US Dollar momentum. We will probably see increased volatility during the days to come, but the overall bias for the time being is bearish, so we anticipate a move closer to 1.0900 and possibly 1.0860. To the upside the first barrier is represented by the level at 1.0995.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases but the US Dollar will still remain under the influence of the recent events. The irregular movement may continue, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The impact of the U.S. Election was lower on this pair than on EUR/USD and overall we had a mixed session yesterday, without a clear winner.

Technical Outlook

The pair failed to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is still trading between 1.2480 resistance and 1.2325 support. The picture remains blurry as the pair is still in a range until one of the mentioned levels is broken decisively. We may see US Dollar strength but as long as price is above the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today but we may see a stronger response to the U.S. Presidential Election so the risk remains high.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO DRIFT AFTER SURPRISE TRUMP WIN

EUR/USD

Forex news: Yesterday the pair continued to move lower but as it was expected, movement was slower than a day before. Support was almost touched and price is now showing rejection.

Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish as the US Dollar strengthened after the Election result came out but the support around 1.0860 was tested yesterday and rejection was clearly seen. Also, price travelled a long distance south without clear retracement and the Stochastic is oversold for the second time in a short while, so all this makes us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly into the resistance at 1.0950.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Veterans Day, so volatility may be affected by this; however, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey, which shows the opinions of consumers on current economic conditions. The survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending but the impact may be muted by the recent U.S. developments; under normal circumstances, higher values than the forecast 87.4, strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the entire part of yesterday’s trading session as the US Dollar doesn’t seem to be affected much by the Presidential Election. Also the session lacked any economic releases and this contributed to the ranging movement.

Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break 1.2480 resistance and if they succeed, we will probably see increased buying pressure and thus higher prices. A bounce lower from this level would show that the ranging period is not yet over and that the pair is headed for the first support, located at 1.2325. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched many times and offered support but price didn’t bounce strongly after touching it so its strength is fading and this increases the chance of a break if price touches is again.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, the Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today. Price direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. Consumer survey.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED REACTION. RANGING SESSION AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan showed a 91.6 reading, better than the forecast 87.4. This added more strength to the US Dollar and generated another bearish session.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.0850 support but it stopped right after breaking it, so the strength of the bears may be fading. There are small signs of rejection and the Stochastic is oversold, suggesting that we may see a pullback today. If this is the case, price is likely to climb closer to 1.0910 which is now resistance but we don’t expect a break today. To the downside the first known support is 1.0800 but we don’t believe it will be broken today either. Most likely we will have a ranging session, without a clear winner.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable event is a speech delivered by ECB President Mario Draghi at the Italian Treasury, in Rome. The scheduled time is 3:00 pm GMT but the impact on the Euro is hard to anticipate because it will depend on Draghi’s attitude and matters discussed.


GBP/USD

Despite strengthening against most of its peers, the US Dollar is not able to win the short term battle against the Pound. Friday the pair continued to move higher, with brief moments of bearish action.

Technical Outlook

The pair created a minor resistance at 1.2675 and now the oscillators are approaching overbought. Also, both oscillators are showing bearish divergence – price is making higher highs and the indicators are making lower highs – and this suggests that we may see a move south today. If this is the case, 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first support zone and we don’t expect the pair to move below it.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators on the Pound’s schedule for today and this may contribute to a ranging session.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BUSY DAY, HIGH VOLATILITY: GERMAN GDP, U.S. RETAIL SALES AND BRITISH INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex news: The sellers remained in control yesterday and the US Dollar continued to strengthen, taking the pair into 1.0710 support. ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t make significant comments during his speech in Italy.

Technical Outlook

The pair travelled a long distance south since the U.S. Presidential Election and although we expect the bearish behaviour to continue, a retracement to the upside is becoming more and more likely. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are now both oversold and price seems to react to the support at 1.0710, so the chances of a pullback have increased. After this potential pullback is complete, the downside movement will probably resume.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Preliminary version of the German Gross Domestic Product is released and anticipated to show a 0.3% change compared to the previous 0.4%. The German economy is an important pillar of the Eurozone and the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance so a higher reading will probably bring Euro strength.

The U.S. Retail Sales will be today’s main mover for the US Dollar. Scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT, the indicator is expected to show a 0.6% change and because sales made at retail levels are a big part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers usually generate a stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair descended yesterday and breached the support at 1.2480. The session was controlled by the bears, without any important economic releases.

Technical Outlook

Price is now attempting to break below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the support at 1.2480 but failure to do so will most likely result in another move into 1.2675 resistance. A break below the Moving Average would put control back in the hands of the bears and would make 1.2325 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the Pound, with two major events: the first is the release of the Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 1.1% (previous 1.0%), with higher values being beneficial for the Pound.

The second event is scheduled half an hour later, at 10:00 am GMT: the Inflation Report Hearings. During these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. Volatility is likely to increase and caution is recommended.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT IN JEOPARDY, OSCILLATORS WARN OF POSSIBLE REBOUNDS

EUR/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday but a worse than expected German GDP combined with optimistic U.S. Retail Sales, nullified almost all Euro gains and brought the pair closer to support again.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created minor resistance at 1.0815 where we saw a pin bar (rejection candle) followed by a hefty drop. Considering this type a behaviour, we anticipate a break of 1.0710 support but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are still “dangerously” close to their respective oversold levels, so we don’t exclude the possibility of another push higher. Overall our bias remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), an indicator that tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The PPI has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by the producer will be eventually paid by the consumer. Today’s anticipated change is 0.3%, the scheduled time is 1:30 pm GMT and usually, higher values strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened on the back of strong Retail Sales, while the British Consumer Price Index disappointed and as a result the pair dropped below the Moving Average yesterday, completing another bearish session.

Technical Outlook

The recent drop below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.2480 will most likely bring in additional sellers that will take the pair into 1.2325 and even further into bearish territory. Moves to the upside may be capped by the 50 EMA and by 1.2480 and we expect price to resume downside movement if it reaches the zone that was just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we take a look at the British jobs situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits and higher numbers usually weaken the Pound; today’s expected number is 1.9K, while the previous was 0.7K