【NTPM 5066 交流专区】启顺造纸

Mr.Business

原帖由 alitterboy 于 22-2-2008 11:19 AM 发表
最近我对ntpm作了一份分析报告,希望大家能给点意见, 对不起是用英文来写的

Why NTPM (5066) become the first choice for me to invest? Now I would like to share my opinion about this company. Consequentia ...

我不觉得她的产品有品牌效应，如果Tesco或Giant的自有品牌的产品比NTPM便宜，我想大多数人会改用她们的产品。

NTPM是lowest cost producer吗？我没有资料，不过我是不觉得啦。

你所讲的其他优点，NTPM的同行都有，那NTPM的优势又在哪里呢？

Mr.Business

Good brand name builds loyalty of customer － 不觉得纸巾有品牌效应

Good controlling cost of business － 有数据证明NTPM在这方面比同行优秀吗？

Focus on paper manufacturing business then build a wide range paper product market － 没什么希奇。

Quality & experience management － 你有检查她的earning都是从主业来的吗？2008财政年的业绩又如何呢？ 我记得NTPM曾经中过很大笔的罚款，2007年的进步是不是因为2006年的罚款？

Non-cyclical business model － 这优点NTPM的同行都有。

Sustainable competitive advantage company －NTPM真的比Kimberly Clarke强？你可有做相关功课？

People in related company buy back its own company is good sign － 这个我没意见。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 12-5-2008 11:27 AM 编辑 ]

tan81

http://chinese3.cari.com.my/myforum/viewthread.php?tid=1132105

23楼到26楼，是我对它的账目，有一些看法。

Mr.Business

那时候托c56733兄的福，我在RM0.37买进，不久就冲到RM0.47，哈。。。后来她在RM0.47停留很久一段时间，我接着也卖出了。。。
之前买进NTPM时，我还很新手 (我现在还是很新手，不过有小小进步)，现在再来看NTPM，她并不是我喜欢的马。不是说她不好，只是不适合我。。。

vampire2000

Premier 的纸巾品质不错，价钱合理。包装比起GIANT/TESCO之类的美，也比GIANT/TESCO较高品质。

NTPM抗跌能力强加高息。

c56733

基本上，如果全球经济没有陷入衰退，NTPM的股价是很难再跌回40分以下。
因为这一年来，两大股东－NTPM主席和Lembaga Tabung Haji都在不间断的买入。
那时候三十多分我会买入主要原因是它刚从低谷回升。。。
当时持有的时候，最大的顾虑，是它的债务。不过，还属于可管理水平。

如果只是想取得比银行定存更高的利息，NTPM会是不错的选择。但不要把全部身家都放进去。。。

c56733

我那时候会买入此股，主要是它的股息吸引了我！
我这个人比较保守，想稳定的投资。后来会换马，是因为我觉得太稳很难致富，
就换马了！不过，我也要谢谢NTPM，因为我资产的三分之一，是它贡献给我的。
不过，假如我那时是买入我介绍给老爸的ANN JOO，而不是NTPM的话，我现在的资产就不只。。。。 暗锤，我想我是不利害选股，要退休了，呵呵。。。

Mr.Business

考虑NTPM的产品并没什么竞争力，只能以价格取胜，市场前景又不是特别的好，管理层又不是特别杰出，我不以为NTPM有多大的投资价值。可能有的投资价值就是如果有熊市来临，而市场又严重低估NTPM的时候。。。



[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 18-5-2008 02:55 AM 编辑 ]

c56733

NTPM的品牌效应还是有的，就好像它的PREMIER面纸巾，CUTIE COMPACT厕纸这两个品牌。还有，NTPM除了生产自己的牌子外，也为其他欲拥有自家牌子的各大霸级市场公司代工生产纸巾类产品。

无可否认，NTPM可以说是老人股。人老了，就是少了那一点冲劲。
不过，它却是很好的股息股，前提是买入的价位在三十多分。

Mr.Business

我认为的品牌效应是如果我要喝coke，我会选Coca Cola或Pepsi，不会选Tesco Coke。可是如果买Tissue的话，如果便宜，我会买Tesco Tissue或Giant Tissue，不一定买PREMIER面纸巾或CUTIE COMPACT厕纸。。。这意味NTPM只能在成本上做工夫，成为lowest cost producer。

vampire2000

所以我现在没得买进。如果接近0.3X我会扫货。

c56733

NTPM今天公布了它的第四季度业绩，盈利表现比我预期中的好，在原料与运输成本不断高涨的年代，净利没有被侵袭已很不错！
随业绩公布也宣布派发2.1分的股息，全年共派发4.05分，现有股价为约50分。

scsiang82

更新: July 1, 2008 21:08

業績表現亮眼
啟順造紙股息誘人



（吉隆坡1日訊）啟順造紙業（NTPM，5066，主板消費）股息誘人、市場主導地位穩固、收入穩定，僑豐投資研究調整目標價格至56仙，維持“買進”投資評級。

研究報告說，該公司截至4月30日2008財年，營業額和淨利按年成長13.1%及6%，后者更超越3290萬令吉預測值3%，業績表現亮眼，主要是紙巾、衛生棉和嬰兒尿布維持高銷量。

不過，由于原料價格高漲抬高生產成本，2008財年淨賺幅從11.9%減低至11.1%；啟順造紙業已調高售價8%，料2009財年漲幅將超過10%。

目標價56仙

啟順造紙業仍是國內最大紙巾生產商，市場份額達60%，將在第3季購置另一台生產機器，料每日產量將從250公噸增加至280公噸。

僑豐投資研究指出，啟順造紙業股息回酬誘人，預計2009和2010財年，每股股息（DPS）達5.1仙，回酬率為10.4%。

2008財年，啟順造紙業每股派發4.7仙，回酬率達9.6%。

該研究建議投資者買進，目標價格為56仙。

啟順造紙業52週最高和最低價格，各為52仙及40仙；公司淨負債率低至0.22倍，市值達3億888萬令吉。

閉市時，啟順造紙業掛50仙，揚0.5仙，成交量為12萬8500股。

http://www.chinapress.com.my/content_new.asp?dt=2008-07-02&sec=business&art=0702bs08.txt

catzilla

这只股有前途，前景不错。如果你有做比较的话，NTPM的卫生纸是厚过其他的品牌的。所以与其买便宜的品牌但是是较薄，不如买贵一点的但是是较厚的。比较值得

scsiang82

Monday August 18, 2008
NTPM in paper recycling venture

By DAVID TAN


PAPER waste has become a key raw material in NTPM Holdings Bhd’s business strategy to produce new products for the domestic market.

The group is now installing machinery from China at its plant in Nibong Tebal, Penang, to manufacture compressed boards using paper waste.

Group managing director Lee See Jin told StarBiz that NTPM was investing RM3mil into the compressed board manufacturing business.

“The raw material, paper waste, is obtained from the production floor of our tissue paper products.

“Since the raw material is sourced internally, we will be able to price the compressed boards competitively in the market,” he said.


Lee See Jin with some of the company's products

Lee said the group would be able to manufacture 30 tonnes of compressed boards per day from the daily paper waste.

“We should be able to start marketing the compressed boards, which are used to make partitions and bags, next year,” he added.

Lee said the group was also exploring the use of plastic waste from tetra-packs to manufacture recycled plastic products for the consumer goods industry.

“We are able to source tetra-packs from the domestic and overseas markets. We plan to produce about 50 tonnes of recycled plastic materials per month for the local consumer goods industry.

“The recycled plastic materials should be marketed next year also. Both the compressed boards and recycled plastic materials should contribute positively to the group a year or two after they are introduced into the market,” he added.

Lee said the group would be shifting the production of its sanitary napkins to a new RM4.5mil facility on a four-acre site in Parit Buntar early next year.

“The 150,000-sq-ft plant is expected to produce sanitary napkins worth RM60mil per year.

“Presently, we are producing about RM20mil worth of sanitary napkins at the Nibong Tebal plant yearly,” he said.

NTPM’s sanitary napkins are marketed under the brands Intimate and Senora, which were introduced in 2003.

“We spent RM2mil to RM3mil a year on advertising and promotions to market the sanitary napkins,” Lee said.

He said the group also aimed to increase the daily production of tissue papers under the Premier and Cutie brands, as these products contributed about 85% to group revenue.

NTPM plans to raise the monthly output of tissue paper products to 280 tonnes per day from the present 250 tonnes by year-end.

“A significant percentage of the tissue paper products are exported overseas.

“We have customers in the Philippines, Australia, Britain, Maldives, the US and Middle East,” Lee said.

For the year ended April 30, the group posted a net profit of RM34mil from a revenue of RM306mil, compared with RM32mil and RM270mil respectively achieved in the previous year.

Lee said the price of raw materials used for the manufacturing of tissue paper products generally ranged from RM550 per tonne to RM1,100 per tonne, depending on the grade of waste paper.

“However, the price for the particular grade of raw material used for making our tissue paper products has increased by 30% over the past 12 months,” he said.

On power expenditure, Lee said NTPM spent about RM2.3mil per month on electricity charges after June 2008, compared with RM1.8mil per month previously.

“We are able to pass the higher production cost to our customers,” he added.

On the group’s working culture, Lee said all its employees were trained to be pro-active and thrifty.

“They are trained to follow up on their work without leaving loose-ends. The manufacturing and marketing teams are trained to save costs and increase efficiency in every possible way,” he added.

OSK Research forecast in a recent report that NTPM’s earnings for the financial year 2009 would be about 2.7% lower, reflecting the possible erosion in margins as well as the hike in selling prices.

The drop in margins is due to the rising cost of raw materials such as plastic, carton boxes and other chemicals.

The brokerage said NTPM was expected to raise the selling price of its products by 10% in 2009, which would enable it to offset the drop in sales volume.

In 2008, NTPM had raised its selling price by 8%, OSK added.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/8/18/business/1775037&sec=business

c56733

最近NTPM找来梁静茹代言旗下卫生棉品牌，其广告已在电视台播映。

我相信以梁静茹亲切可爱的形象，一定能大大提高Intimate卫生棉的销售额。





[ 本帖最后由 c56733 于 30-8-2008 07:49 PM 编辑 ]

有目标的大头

现在已经来到0.50，大头想买进了。

c56733

你好像对购物中心比较有兴趣
卫生棉不适合你

宇晴

是大头叫我进来的。

听听师奶站在消费者的意见:
1.Premier tissue: 我的第一选择。(其它纸质不是很好，只有Scott能够fight罢了)
2.Cutie Compact: 我全家人和多数亲戚朋友的选择。
3.Diapex 我的宝宝有用过。不过我比较宠孩子，都是给他Sealer or Mummypoko.
4.Intimate, 品质有待改善，大体上还是不错的。

股价Rm0.50可以进场吗？
等我买进Maybulk就考虑看看这个。

c56733

如果大家有留意这支股的话，会发觉它的股价在这一轮的政治动荡和经济放缓的环境下，依然坚挺在50分的价位（虽然分了几次股息）。

股价会如此坚挺，除了业绩不错外，最大的支持力量，是来自于公司主席和Lembaga Tabung Haji的不断买进。

50分这个价位对我而言，是有点高了！不过，以它分发的股息，这个价是值得考虑，和产业投资信托股有得过招。再说，面纸巾是女性每日的必需品，不会受到经济循环的影响，经济差时，大不了找便宜点的来用。