股災何時見底？--OBAMA的8250億擋不了股市下跌

cct2048

Alternative Energy Industry Outlook   January 15, 2009


Assuming that GDP growth is slightly negative for the next 3 to 4 quarters while the credit markets gradually strengthen, let's consider the outlook and opportunities for the Alternative Energy industry over the next 6 to 12 months. Many companies engaged in the solar power market offer profitability with strong average long-term annual earnings growth expectations of approximately 40%, stock price valuations significantly discounted from their recent historic highs, and a favorable political environment.

Industry Outlook for Alternative Energy Stocks: Speculative - Bullish

The electric power industry is one of the world's largest industrial segments. With a global market share of approximately 25%, the United States is the leading producer of electricity, followed by China, Japan and Russia. Total global electricity consumption volume grew at a CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 3.1% from 1980 to 2006, the most recently available information, according to the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy.

Meanwhile, over the same period, total global installed electricity capacity increased at a slower rate of only 2.8%. Given industry forecasts of continuous increases in demand, this supply shortfall must be met by additional energy sources. Worldwide demand for electricity is expected to increase from 14.8 trillion kilowatt hours in 2003 to 27.1 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, according to the United States Department of Energy's International Energy Outlook. (Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy)

Investment in electric generation, transmission and distribution to meet growth in demand (excluding investment in fuel supply) is expected to be approximately $11 trillion by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. However, the desire for energy independence, fossil fuel supply constraints, infrastructure limitations and environmental concerns all pose challenges to meeting this growing worldwide demand for electricity.

Electricity generated by burning fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas and petroleum accounts for approximately 80% of commercial power production, nuclear reactors produce approximately 9% of commercial power, 6% is contributed by conventional hydroelectric conversion, while renewable resources such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and hydroelectric power generation supply the remaining 5% of commercial power.

In recent years, however, the use of renewable resources in the U.S. has been increasing in response to the growing concerns over reliance on fossil fuels. As opposed to fossil fuels, which draw on finite resources and may eventually become too expensive to retrieve, renewable resources are generally unlimited in availability. Legislation in several states seek to require power production from renewable sources to be approximately 15% of commercial electric power. Bipartisan support for weaning the U.S. off its dependency on foreign oil is led by President-elect Barack Obama's pledge to create five million new jobs by heavily investing in renewable alternative energy sources. (Sources of Electricity in the US [2006] - Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy)

The alternative energy industry includes solar panel manufacturers and wind farm operators, as well as software designers working on "smart" power grids and electric utilities with solar, wind, hydro and/or geothermal assets. While hydroelectric power generation currently has the largest installed base, solar and wind power generation have emerged as the most rapidly growing renewable energy sources.

While wind power has a promising long-term future with frequent proposals for new wind farms, there are very few publicly traded wind power companies. In the case of ethanol, high and rising corn prices have brought ethanol stocks out of favor with investors.

Solar Energy

Solar energy can be used to convert sunlight into heat, called solar thermal energy, or directly into electricity, known as photovoltaic (PV) energy. Solar thermal applications can be distributed, such as roof-mounted systems for heating swimming pools, or can be centralized where sunlight is concentrated to heat a medium that drives a turbine to generate electricity in large scale plants.

Electricity generated from solar thermal electric power plants requires large concentrators and turbines, which are not suitable for residential locations. We refer to solar power as the use of interconnected solar cells, as opposed to solar thermal technology, to generate electricity from sunlight. The interconnected cells are packaged into solar panels, which are mounted in areas with direct exposure to the sun, such as rooftops.

Solar power technology has been used to generate electricity in space program applications for several decades and in commercial applications over the last 30 years. Increasingly, government incentive programs are accelerating the adoption of solar power. Since 2001, the global market for solar power installed capacity has grown at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40%, driven by strong growth in Germany, Spain, and the U.S.

According to SolarBuzz (a research and consulting firm), the global solar power market, as defined by solar power system installations, generated $17.2 billion in revenue in 2007 (the most recently available information), up 56% over 2006 global revenue. Such total global solar market installation revenue is expected to be within a range of $18.7 billion to $31.4 billion by 2011. On a generation output basis, 2007 global solar cell production also increased 56% year-over-year to 3,436 megawatts (MW); meanwhile, worldwide installations grew 62% to a record high of 2,826 MW. Germany is the global leader for PV installations (1,328 MW in 2007), followed by Spain (640 MW), Japan (230 MW) and the United States (220 MW).

OPPORTUNITIES

Compared to other renewable energy technologies, solar power's benefits include:

Environmental Advantage: Solar power is one of the most benign electric generation resources. Solar cells generate electricity without air or water emissions, noise, vibration, habitat impact or waste generation.
Fuel Risk Advantage: Unlike fossil and nuclear fuels, solar energy has no risk of fuel price volatility or delivery risk. Although there is variability in the amount and timing of sunlight over the day, season and year, a properly sized and configured system can be designed to be highly reliable while providing a long-term, fixed price electric supply.
Location Advantage: Unlike other renewable resources such as hydroelectric and wind power, solar power is generally located at a customer site due to the universal availability of sunlight. As a result, solar power limits the expense of, and energy losses associated with, transmission and distribution from large-scale electric plants to the end users. For most residential consumers seeking an environmentally friendly power alternative, solar power is the only viable choice because it can be located in urban and suburban environments.
Retail Rate Benchmark Advantage: Unlike biomass, geothermal, hydroelectric and wind power generation, which are location-dependent and sell primarily to the wholesale market, solar power competes with retail electric rates as it is customer-sited and supplements a customer's electricity purchased at retail rates from the utility network.
Peak Energy Generation Advantage: Solar power is well-suited to match peak energy needs as maximum sunlight hours generally correspond to typical peak demand periods when electricity prices are at their highest. These characteristics increase the value of solar power as compared to other renewable resources that do not align with peak demand periods.
Modularity: Solar power products can be deployed in many sizes and configurations to meet the specific needs of the customer.
Reliability: With no moving parts or regular required maintenance, solar power systems are among the most reliable forms of electricity generation.
We favor companies offering photovoltaics (PV) and large-scale concentrated solar power (CSP) and nuclear systems over other forms alternative energy such as biofuels, geothermal or hydropower. Alternative energies plays such as Entergy (ETR), FPL Group (FPL), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), SunPower (SPWRA), Verasun Energy (VSUNQ.PK), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar (FSLR), and JA Solar (JASO) appear favorable to Hoku Scientific (HOKU), Aventine Renewable (AVR) and Raser Technologies (RZ).

WEAKNESSES

The global economic crises will temper alternative energy sales and earnings growth.
The immediate concerns over economic weakness likely takes the short-term focus off progress toward a new energy policy.
Continued weakness in the debt and equity markets, for as long as it lasts, will raise costs of capital for firms in this emerging sector, and may prevent project financing, working capital requirements, and new research and development. Federal funding for a new energy policy will largely dry up.
Alternative energy stock prices generally rise and fall in direct proportion to the price of crude oil. While in times of high oil prices this may also present an opportunity, it also increases volatility in the sector.

cct2048

短期看淡 长期利好

奥巴马能源计划将比 IT 革命更深远   2009年01月18日   中国经营报
　　
      中国和美国有一点是相似的，就是都喜欢用红色作为喜庆的主色调。但是，美国候任总统奥巴马将在2009年1月20日的就职典礼中反其道而行之。

　　为了突出自己节能减碳、降低污染的绿色能源环境气候一体化的振兴经济计划，奥巴马团队将以绿色将作为这一盛会的主题色彩，总统就职委员会发出的观礼邀请函，将取材于再生纸制品，一些庆祝活动的迎宾地毯将以绿色来取代一贯使用的红色，奥巴马就职演说的重头部分，也将突出能源为主的美国复兴和再投资计划。绿色是美元的代表色，绿色经济也可能成为美国经济的主力。

　　奥巴马目前已公布的经济振兴计划主要集中在五个方面。在这个计划中，一半以上涉及到能源产业，每一项都与能源有关，因此，能源产业转型和发展是奥巴马经济复兴计划的核心。

　　但是，这些只是奥巴马能源战略的表面文章和先遣改革，奥巴马能源计划的下一步战略将包括如下部分：

　　将着重集中对每年要耗费1200亿美元的电路损耗和故障维修的电网系统进行升级换代，建立美国横跨四个时区的统一电网。由于美国是联邦制度，这个统一电网的营造在非危机时代很难进行，由此也将引发国际电网体系升级的革命；全面发展节能汽车和电动车；最大限度发挥美国国家电网的价值和效率，将逐步实现美国太阳能、风能、地热能的统一入网管理；创造世界上最高的能源使用效率；建立美国独特的新能源经济，目前大规模运转能源体系革命计划的主要世界经济体系只有美国，而且目前执行这个计划的也只有美国。如果美国借此发展智能电网产业，8~10年内这个产业将超过10万亿美元；如果美国借此发展大陆超导电网产业，8~10年内这个产业将超过30万亿美元。

　　奥巴马政府的战略目标就是要用未来10~20年内将美国用于进口石油等的资本建造美国的太阳能电站，风力电站和地热电站，再造美国富有竞争力的能源产业，增加就业机会。同时将促使美国不再依赖化石能源，不再依赖碳基燃料，而使用不昂贵、无污染，可以大量获得而且就在美国国内的资源。笔者估计：这个投资初期应该是1.5万~3万亿美元，长远可能超过5万亿美元，实现这个能源体系的置换必将使现代美国脱胎换骨。

　　也可以说，以油气为主的经济相当于从北峰登顶珠峰，绿色能源计划意味着从南坡登顶珠峰，这是比布什直接攻打两伊更伟大的计划，它将使从西亚到俄罗斯和南美的石油国家利益联合体遭遇釜底抽薪式的打击，被迫放弃高油价的利益，自动转换到比美国低得多的全球经济的等级结构之中，从而完成世界力量重组。

　　奥巴马团队没有准备像布什政府攻打伊拉克一般准备攻打伊朗，但是，如果成功地打击了石油输出国利益集团，其战略功效更高，伊朗将以坐过山车的方式沦为低阶层的国家，这种政治上让伊朗的失落、跌落比布什的直接攻打伊拉克更加残酷。在这个能源体系的变革中，伊朗将可能不再是美国的直接对手，其最大的敌人将是它自己的不发达。

　　从这个意义而言，美国的能源重组也将是美国全球战略力量的重组，它也将把美国从现在的经济、环境和国家安全危机中解脱出来。

　　因此，这个改革将使奥巴马成功地以绿色经济为主推动一场新的经济革命，能源业将成为未来美国经济发展的主力引擎，通过建立清洁的能源结构将彻底改造美国的生产方式和生活方式。这个革命将比十年前的IT革命更为重大、更为深远，应该是农业文明以来最伟大的革命。也正是基于此，奥巴马经济改革计划也被称为美国复兴和再投资计划，其中的能源体系变革就将是21世纪人类最大规模的经济、社会和环境的总体革命。

　　(作者武建东为中国改革学术顾问）


里昂证券继续看淡太阳能行业 2009年01月16日 中国证券网


      上海证券报里昂证券本周发布的行业报告认为，太阳能行业是2008年表现最糟糕的行业之一，其受到的打击比其他大多数行业更严重。

       里昂证券认为，由于需求连同项目信贷一起枯竭，2008年第四季度产业链上的太阳能价格表现疲软。2009年上半年，尽管价格已有所稳定，但需求尚未好转。太阳能面板生产商预期欧洲，特别是解冻的德国将从2009年第二季度开始推动需求和价格，其中部分基于固定合同。

       该报告指出，在2009年，该行业的糟糕情况仍将重复。政策支持增加将有利于该行业的长期增长前景，但刺激计划见效将需要时间，并且实际影响仍是个谜。即使价格稳定，近期需求和盈利也令人失望，中期可能出现恢复，但不会显著。报告仍然要求减持该行业。




[ 本帖最后由 cct2048 于 18-1-2009 03:09 PM 编辑 ]

cct2048

美国推超薄太阳能电池 发电成本接近煤电    2009-1-16    新华网

    一种可“印”在铝箔上的超薄太阳能电池日前在美国加利福尼亚州一家工厂的流水线上源源不断地生产出来。这种可以大规模生产的太阳能电池被科学家称为太阳能发电的“革命”。

    据英国《卫报》报道，这种电池板是硅谷的纳米太阳能公司研制生产的。和越来越多欧洲消费者安装在自家屋顶上发电的太阳能电池不同，这种新式电池可像印刷报纸一样“印”在铝箔上，弹性好，重量轻。纳米太阳能公司预计，用这种电池板发电能像用煤发电一样便宜。    

      纳米太阳能公司称，该产品订单已经排到了2009年中期，而且第二家工厂很快要在德国投产。

    纳米太阳能公司在瑞士的经理埃里克·奥尔德科普说：“我们的首块太阳能电池板将用于德国的一家太阳能电站。我们的目标是生产出发电成本为99美分1瓦的电池板。”

    报道说，在欧洲、日本、中国和美国，有几家公司和纳米太阳能公司一样，都在研发生产不同样式的“薄片”太阳能电池。美国政府和硅谷的企业家已经为这种技术实现商用投入了3亿美元。

论坛废才

那请问各位大大，我国有那几只股具备绿色资源的条件？谢谢。祝新年快乐，阖家安康

goodluck88

卡贴。。。。。。

cct2048

原帖由 论坛废才 于 18-1-2009 06:38 PM 发表
那请问各位大大，我国有那几只股具备绿色资源的条件？谢谢。祝新年快乐，阖家安康

基本马来西亚没有
香港，台湾，美国有几家
如在香港上市的比亚迪 -- 新能源汽车


其实不必太悲观 因为行情總是從絕望中誕生

巴菲特看好中国技术型企业 称国际资本投资将首选中国  2009年01月18日   

　　最近在美国底特律举行的车展期间，携电动汽车F6DM赴美参展的比亚迪总裁王传福，会晤了美国股神和公司战略股东巴菲特，这是巴菲特入股比亚迪之后，双方的首次正式会晤。据透露，股神巴菲特看好以比亚迪为代表的中国技术型企业。

　　巴菲特表示，他对比亚迪及王传福带领的团队十分有信心，比亚迪汽车作为中国汽车业的后起之秀，不仅在研发和生产领域取得了长足进步，推出了具有国际水平的燃油汽车，并在新能源汽车尤其是电动汽车领域走在世界的前列。他表示，估计未来会有大批像比亚迪一样的中国技术型企业崛起，中国未来会是国际资本的一个首选投资目的地。

　　比亚迪公司公关部有关人士表示，此次二人的会晤，将有利于比亚迪汽车在北美的准入和市场拓展，并起到至为关键的作用。在底特律车展上，王传福表示，已经与中美能源进行合作，在北美市场展开渠道和网络建设，比亚迪汽车预计将在2011年正式进军美国市场。此次会晤，双方还进一步探讨了新能源合作计划，并借助巴菲特在美国的强势影响力和中美能源的网络，比亚迪有机会提前实现进军美国的计划。

chookf

【股票分析】薩蒂揚(Satyam)的假賬探討
應經POST了!



【黑＠證券說】http://ckfstock.blogspot.com

chookf

花旗第四財季虧損82.9億美元。
花旗集團跌至3.50美元﹐跌幅8.6%﹐一週累計下挫48%。

早就說過花旗集團問題很多，之前其股價曾經激烈重跌，
當時買進的人在反彈賣掉自然是上上大吉，
但是若執迷和盲目相信花旗集團過去輝煌的金字招牌，
現在就大件事了！

畢竟支持花旗集團過去輝煌的條件已經不在了！

chookf

買美股會賺大錢嗎？

除非你選對公司，否則平均來說，
還不如投資亞洲國家的股市。

畢竟亞洲的經濟增長再慢都快過美國。

有山有水

原帖由 chookf 于 19-1-2009 12:47 PM 发表
花旗第四財季虧損82.9億美元。
花旗集團跌至3.50美元﹐跌幅8.6%﹐一週累計下挫48%。

早就說過花旗集團問題很多，之前其股價曾經激烈重跌，
當時買進的人在反彈賣掉自然是上上大吉，
但是若執迷和盲目相信花旗 ...

chookf 兄, 你怎麼看另一個銀行業巨人hsbc?
會和花旗同一下場嗎?

chookf

hsbc的資本適足率只是剛好及格,
在目前經濟衰退的環境下實在很不安全,
hsbc令一個令人擔心的是--hsbc fINANCE(在美國的業務)的虧損的洞有多大?

有山有水

原帖由 chookf 于 19-1-2009 01:56 PM 发表
hsbc的資本適足率只是剛好及格,
在目前經濟衰退的環境下實在很不安全,
hsbc令一個令人擔心的是--hsbc fINANCE(在美國的業務)的虧損的洞有多大?

明白, 就是擔心它在美國的業務的虧損.. 和前景.
再看看它會不會再次拒絕英國政府的注資...

'神話'破滅 vs '神話'再現  -- [ 買定離手]

8years

顺便看看ql

ng33

早就說過花旗集團問題很多，之前其股價曾經激烈重跌，
當時買進的人在反彈賣掉自然是上上大吉



你说得对。。。。。。。。

莘好早些时清仓了，否则够力料。。。。。。。

买进 5。44  ， 卖出 6。54  。

chookf

DOWNLOAD了CITIGROUP, 美國銀行,JPMORGAN的季報,
回家慢慢看,從細部了解美國的經濟問題

chookf

艾爾敦：金融海嘯前景仍未明朗，料仍有壞消息發出  

  2009/01/19 14:44   

  　　《經濟通通訊社１９日專訊》匯豐前亞太區主席艾爾敦接受傳媒訪問時說，預期金融海嘯
短期內會結束的看法是根本不明白問題的嚴重性。他預計，金融市場仍陸續有壞消息發出，現
時無人能夠預期經濟何時見底，以及提出解決的良方。他又認為，英國政府在拯救當地金融業
方面應該有進一步行動。
　　對於中國今年能否達到經濟增長８％的目標，艾爾敦說，內地出口的確放緩，以外部經濟
難以達到「保八」的目標，但內部經濟仍有增長，至於能否彌補出口的缺口目前難以預料。

cct2048

罗杰斯：抛空所有美元资产 增持中国股票  2009年01月19日

  
　　投资大师罗杰斯预言美元将失去世界储备货币地位

　　投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯今天在港出席"亚洲金融论坛"时语出惊人，他预期美元未来将大幅贬值，并将失去作为世界外汇储备货币的地位，人民币有机会取而代之，而亚洲区将成为未来全球投资热点。

　　罗杰斯今天在论坛午餐会上发表演讲时指出，美国现时共有十多万亿美元欠债，成为全球最大负债经济体系，外债以每十二至十五个月增加一万亿美元的速度上升，而美国政府不断印钞，令美元汇价持续贬值，预期美元将会持续弱势。

　　身为投资大师的罗杰斯对美国经济前景表示忧虑，认为美国将经历上世纪三十年代以来最大的经济危机，相信金融海啸只是刚刚开始。由于美国过度借贷消费，造成经济泡沬，目前正经历痛苦的去杠杆化过程。虽然亚洲出口亦因而受到影响，但相信所受痛苦会较轻。

　　谈及即将上任的美国总统奥巴马及其财金团队，罗杰斯表示，担心奥巴马上台后会大幅加税以及采取保护主义，令美国经济会变得更差。

　　罗杰斯又预言，二十年后人民币会成为世界外汇储备货币，当人民币可以自由兑换时，建议港元与美元脱勾。

　　但罗杰斯继续看好商品市场前景，认为商品被大幅抛售下，价格已跌至不合理水平，但商品的基本因素已逐步改善，石油、黄金以及农产品等商品的市场需求长远会保持上升。

　　罗杰斯又相信，二十一世纪将是中国的世纪，因此会教育两个女儿学习中文，而他目前会继续沽售美元资产，增持中国股票。

8years

从2005年讲沽售美元资产到今天，没有想到有那么多美元资产
而且还沽售那么久还沽不完。

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cct2048

原帖由 8years 于 19-1-2009 08:24 PM 发表
从2005年讲沽售美元资产到今天，没有想到有那么多美元资产
而且还沽售那么久还沽不完。

钱多到沽不完  嘿嘿