股災何時見底？--OBAMA的8250億擋不了股市下跌

chookf

大傷力武器找到了！
當初美國以有大傷力武器的理由入侵伊拉克，
結果幾年來將伊拉克翻了幾翻也找不到！

後來終於發現這些大傷力武器原來在美國本土，
它們叫：CDO，CDS ....

8years

果然强，没有想到最安全的地方就是最危险的地方。

goldenwkl

哈哈哈。。。。很大的諷刺。。。！！！！

terryhua

大大， 那些不是早就出现了吗？？？
不对请SHOOT ME。

chookf

明天 :-
1.花旗及美銀提前於今晚發業績 (有好戲看,期待大虧)
2.美發密大消費信心指數  
3.美國公布１１月淨資本流動、１２月消費物價指數（ＣＰＩ）月率、實質所得、工業
生產月率及１月密歇根大學消費信心指數初值，市場預估值分別為淨流入１５０億美元、
負０﹒９％、１﹒１％、負１％及５９；公布１月９日當周ＥＣＲＩ領先指標，前值為
１０９﹒４。

美股方面，花旗集團及美國銀行今晚提前公布業績，市場預期每股基本盈利為負０﹒９９美
元及０﹒２１美元。花旗原定下周四（２２日）發業績，而美銀原定下周二（２０日）發業績。
　　

chookf

Bank of America獲政府200億美元紓困 及1180億美元資產擔保


  美國財政部官員周五一早宣佈，同意再提供全美市值最大商業銀行Bank of America Corp.(BAC-US；美國銀行)200億美元現金資助，並提供最高1180億美元的資產擔保。

財政部將透過近月來紓困Citigroup (C-US)所設的援助模式，提供Bank of America上述資金。並將與聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)攜手，共同提供該行已計入目前市值的資產擔保。
根據《華爾街日報》周四報導，擔保計畫將由 Ban k of America承擔第一部份虧損，財政部和FDIC承擔第二部份虧損，聯準會(Fed)則擔保其餘虧損。
報導並指出，美國政府為了彌補Bank of America去年12月底收購券商Merrill Lynch (美林)後需承擔的損失，可能提供150-200億美元金援。由於Merrill遭併購後虧損快速攀升，使得Bank of America面臨沉重壓力。消息人士指出，Merrill的虧損可能超過 100億美元。
Bank of America周四股價因此大跌1.88美元或18. 43%，收8.32美元，市值降至 418億美元。過去7個交易日，股價已大跌40%。
該行先前已獲財政部問題資產援助方案(TARP)資助 250億美元，但仍缺乏足夠資金。今日消息公佈時機，剛好是美國參議院同意撥發剩餘3500億美元資金給財政部之後數小時，政府因此獲得更多資金，以供應需要的企業。Bank of America也將於稍後公佈第4季財報。
根據新總統Obama(歐巴馬)執政團隊向國會提出新的 TARP撥款紓困條件，未來接受特別資助紓困的企業，直到償還政府貸款之前，每季股利皆不得高於每股0.01美元。因此，Bank of America未來3年每季股利將不得高於此限。

hk123

1。 bank of Lehman Brothers 倒闭了吗？还是政府接管？

2。 AIG 倒闭了吗？还是政府接管？

3。3大汽车，GM，FORD，还有一个是什么？
      他们获得政府拨款帮助对吗？

4。Merrill与那几家银行合併？


xiexie谢谢

goodluck88

1. 倒闭
2。政府接管
3。Chrysler,对
4。BoA

ZhiLouTaYu

美國的救市真的行嗎？
銀行真的前景大好嗎？

我有保留！！！！
BoA 的20b ， 美林 虧了 15b

yilingchai

今天美国大起了,,,,2009年1月16日,,,,

cct2048

反复筑底中

lai1688

Subject: Fw: Selling from Unfrozen Hedge Funds Likely To Hit Asia In Feb 2009

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Speculation is aswirl that global stock markets may come under renewed downward pressure from hedge funds forced to cash out of their equity holdings in February to meet a flurry of investor requests for redemptions.

Unlike ordinary investment trusts, most hedge funds have rules that allow them to place limits on withdrawals by investors, such as once a quarter or every six months. They have attracted money by underscoring that while the rules may force investors to sacrifice liquidity, the guildelines also serve to help the funds concentrate on fund management over longer periods to yield higher returns.

Moreover, additional provisions enable hedge funds to freeze redemptions in emergency situations. In fact, many hedge funds did just that to deal with a wave of redemption requests filed late last year.

At the end of December last year, the quarterly deadline for redemptions, they managed to refuse to let investors take their money out, using the rules as an excuse. At the end of March 2009, the next deadline, however, funds will face stronger demands from investors for money withdrawals.

Even worse, the recent situation surrounding the hedge fund industry has been somewhat complicated. Pension funds and other institutional investors tend to invest through funds of funds, rather than allocate money directly to individual hedge funds.

If a fund of funds receives a redemption request from its customer investing in one of the hedge funds comprising its portfolio that moved to freeze redemptions, it has no choice but to raise cash to meet such request by either unloading assets at other hedge fund designed to offer unconditional redemptions or borrowing money from banks. The reality, however, is that there are no banks for now that are willing to lend money to funds of funds.

Such development means that the redemption-free hedge fund has to pay the cost, despite the fact that the performance of this type of fund is relatively favorable.

To avoid the situation, even those funds enjoying steady performances are also forced to freeze redemptions, creating a negative cycle of payouts suspension sweeping the hedge fund sector involving funds of funds.

The U.S. media sometimes carry commentaries critical of hedge funds, with a Bloomberg News saying that these funds take 20% of the profit on their money in the good times, then refuses to let them have it back when the weather turns rough.

Some point out that if the current situation is kept intact, the hedge fund industry as a whole could suffer a loss of investor trust.

According to Hidenao Miyajima, chief strategist at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd., hedge fund firms have frozen redemptions on a total of approximately 1,800 funds, including about 1,000 funds focusing on stocks of emerging nations and 600 specializing in long and short positions in global stocks. The total number represents roughly 25% of all hedge funds operated in the world.

The combined net asset value at the 1,800 funds has attained 40-45 trillion yen.

Given the fact that the hedge fund industry's net asset value has recently shrunk to 110-120 trillion yen from 200 trillion yen at the end of June 2008, one-third of hedge funds overall have refused to redeem in terms of NAV.

To date, the freezing of redemptions by hedge funds has not been a bad news for the global stock market, partly because a recovery in the market started around Nov. 20 last year on the back of subdued stock selling by hedge funds that suspended redemptions.

Even so, the continued freezing of payouts would spark a major backlash against large hedge funds that manage money for pension funds worldwide, with Miyajima saying that "Unless they accept redemption requests from investors, this could provoke international dispute on this matter."

Because Feb. 15 is the deadline for investors to ask hedge funds for their money back at the end of March when their books are closed, pension funds and other investors are likely to rush for redemption requests in the next month, reinforcing the possibility that stock sell-off by hedge funds may push the world financial market back into crisis mode.

--Translated from an article written by Nikkei senior staff writer Masataka Maeda

(The Nikkei Veritas January 11 edition)

chookf

genting並不屬於高股息公司，
你不能以短期來看。


一般高股息的公司最少有約１４本益比。
再扣除課稅，只有約５.２％年回報。

高股息意味著低成長！
所以你不能要求股價起很多。
平均每年約５％的話，兩者相加就是１０％一年。
但是複成長效果很低。

所以你得到的是每年平均１０％的回報而已。
開始幾年還不錯，但是因為沒有複成長，
所以時間越長，你的回報越少。

關於什麼公司是高股息，怎樣的公司才叫高股息股，
以後我會在我的blog寫出來。

注：目前的高股息股比較優良的是，bat, bjtoto, guiness

hk123

U.S. subprime mortgage turmoil. =  FED crisis ???
对吗？帮帮忙

论坛废才

chookf兄，请问现在是进场良机吗？家父看报纸听李信宏说如果在resort一上市时就购买他的股票，当时应该是两千元，在往后的日子中所有的股息及红股一律不卖，股息直接买回去，拿在2007年12月31日时就是百万富翁了，所以他也想这样做，那以后就能留一些钱给他的子孙，无奈在下不才，因此在股海中输得凄凄惨惨，希望您能给一些明示，让我能给家父一些意见。谢谢

goodluck88

几十年前的东西已经过去，买股看的是未来，过去有多好已经不在重要。。。
如果那条友可以说出某某股在即使年后可以让你变成百万富翁，这个才值得听嘛。。。

cct2048

提示 ：
绿色能源是下个 50 年的重要发展项目

檀主

50年哦.......

论坛废才

那意味着未来50年绿色能源的股很有潜能性咯！请问有那几只？

chookf

【市場把脈】從奧巴馬效應探討股市未來
周四美國的道瓊斯指數一開市就重挫，後來美國國會公佈奧巴馬所建議的總值8250億美元的振興經濟方案細節，
道瓊斯指數即刻出現“V型”反彈，閉市時升0.15%，第二天周五延續周四升勢，但是在花旗集團和美國銀行慘淡的業績下轉頭下跌，午市才出現回彈，全日升幅0.84%，兩日只升1%。

顯然，在奧巴馬公佈其在市場醞釀多時的振興經濟方案細節後，市場雖對這方案表示歡迎，但是還是無法消除現實經濟衰退的疑慮。
接下來的1月19日是美國假期，無開市，而奧巴馬則在1月20日就職總統，看來奧巴馬就職效應完全無效，即使在公佈振興經濟方案細節後也是如此。
投資者要知道，股市不是反映過去，而是預期未來。

當奧巴馬中選美國總統時，股市以下跌回應，奧巴馬效應已經不見了1/3；中選後奧巴馬不斷對外宣示自己的振興經濟方案，股市也沒出現升勢回應，奧巴馬效應就不見一半，被腰斬了！
鑒於如此，所以我對奧巴馬就任總統和公佈振興經濟方案會出現短暫漲潮的說法表示懷疑。離就職總統最後兩天的交易日，奧巴馬公佈總值8250億美元的振興經濟方案細節，股市只獲得1%的漲幅，而且還是在不斷反覆下獲得的，所以肯定奧巴馬效應已經不見了2/3。看來短暫的漲潮說法實在不樂觀！
接下來，眾議院院長佩洛西表示，爭取委員會會議在下周通過有關方案，然後再過一周便進行全體表決，希望在2月13日休會期前完成立法程序。
也就是說，奧巴馬效應的最後希望是在2月份。如果股市還是沒有出現積極效應，那麼恐怕這次股災中的“熊市反彈”不會再出現了！畢竟奧巴馬的振興經濟方案，不是說一通過就能即刻見效。最快也需要一年半載才能看出些許效果。
所以我估計，奧巴馬效應若在2月份出現，也只是“熊市反彈”，長線者不宜追之。而不論2月份有無奧巴馬效應，待這個課題結束後，下次如果股市在2個月內出現超過15%的漲幅，那就是熊市結束的時候。除非有更大的炸彈還沒被挖出來。


摘自：【黑＠證券說】http://ckfstock.blogspot.com