大众远东产业及旅游业基金（PFEPRF）的前景！（英文版）

Takumi

Property prices on the uptrend in the long term.

Takumi

Office rentals resume uptrend.

Takumi

Property prices on a long term uptrend.

Takumi

Rental rates recovering

Takumi

In US$/psf	Jan 2000	Apr 2007	% chg. p.a.
Japan	1,248	2,622	15.7
Hong Kong	1,134	1,982	10.7
Singapore	800	1,322	9.3
Australia	484	765	5.2
Shanghai	421	610	6.4
Malaysia	146	169	2.3
Indonesia	93	123	4.6

There is potential for property prices in selected markets to appreciate further given the large price difference between the above markets

Takumi

Likewise there is potential for rental rates in selected markets to appreciate.

Takumi

In US$/psf	Jan 2000	Apr 2007	% chg. p.a.
Hong Kong	1,337	2,095	8.1
Singapore	900	1,361	7.3
Malaysia	103	152	6.8
Indonesia	119	125	0.7
Shanghai	n.a.	359	n.a.

Takumi

Developing markets are lagging prices in selected cities.

Takumi

Property Market Outlook: Key Factors
a)      Resilient GDP growth
b)      Rising disposable income
c)       High savings rate
d)      Benign interest rate environment amidst strong liquidity
e)      Availability of financing/credit for housing
f)       Foreign buyers for selected markets
g)      Rising trend of urbanisation

Takumi

a) Resilient GDP Growth

	2006	2007f	2008f
China	10.7	10.0	9.6
Hong Kong	6.8	4.9	5.0
Singapore	7.9	5.1	7.5
Malaysia	5.9	6.0	5.4
Indonesia	5.5	5.6	5.5
Australia	2.8	2.8	3.4
Japan	2.2	1.8	2.5

f=forecast
Source: Brokers’ Consensus

Sustained GDP growth is positive for the property sector in terms of consumer affordability and sentiment.

Takumi

b) Rising Disposable Income

	Nominal GDP/Capita (US$)
	2000	2006	% p.a.
Singapore	23,018	29,475	4.2
Hong Kong	25,140	27,466	1.5
Korea	10,885	18,504	9.3
Taiwan	14,445	15,635	1.3
Malaysia	3,844	5,813	7.1
Thailand	1,979	3,299	8.9
China	947	1,998	13.2
Indonesia	797	1,646	12.8

Strong growth in disposable income increases the affordability of home ownership.

Takumi

c) High Savings Rate

Country	2005(%)
Singapore	48.6
China	47.0
Malaysia	43.3
Korea	33.3
Hong Kong	33.0
Thailand	29.4
India	29.1
Taiwan	23.0

Source: Asian Development Bank

Consumers are more likely to invest in property given their high savings rates provide some safety buffer in the event of any economic slowdown.



[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 19-7-2007 11:41 PM 编辑 ]

Takumi

d) Benign Interest Rate Environment


Interest Rates: Malaysia & Singapore

Malaysia: Maybank Base Lending Rate
Singapore: Prime Rate

[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 19-7-2007 11:56 PM 编辑 ]

Takumi

Hong Kong: HK Base Rate
China: 1-Year Base Lending Rate

Hong Kong interest rates have stabilised while China’s interest rates have been trending up slightly



[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 19-7-2007 11:55 PM 编辑 ]

Takumi

Japan: 10-Year Government Bond
Australia: 10-Year Government Bond

Interest rates have been generally stable in Australia & Japan



[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 19-7-2007 11:55 PM 编辑 ]

Takumi

Foreign Currency Reserves

Country	US$Bil	Selected Total
China	1,202.0	38.7%
Japan	888.0	28.6%
Taiwan	266.5	8.6%
South Korea	247.3	8.0%
Singapore	137.5	4.4%
Hong Kong	135.4	4.4%
Malaysia	89.5	2.9%
Thailand	70.6	2.3%
Indonesia	49.2	1.6%
Total	3,108.7	100.0%

Source: Central banks, Bloomberg

Strong liquidity in the banking system prompts banks to offer attractive mortgages lending rates & packages.

[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 19-7-2007 11:55 PM 编辑 ]

Takumi

e) Availability of financing/credit for housing

l Ample liquidity and benign interest rate environment is positive for real estate purchasers as financial institutions offer attractive financing packages.

l The opening up of developing markets such as China via the Housing Reform that began in 1998 and took off in 1999/2000 was the catalyst for home ownership in China. Prior to that, buyers have no access to home mortgage financing.

Takumi

f) Foreign buyers for selected markets

-  Easier foreign ownership rules in some countries encouraged foreign buying of local property, boosting prices further.

-  In Singapore foreign share of real estate purchases has increased from 9.9% in 1999-2001 to 28% in 2006.

-  In Malaysia, the recent relaxation of foreign real estate ownership rules is expected to be positive for the local property market.

Takumi

g) Rising Trend Of Urbanisation

Migration to the cities driving up residential prices in cities.
Especially prevalent in China and Indonesia.

Takumi

- In 2016, China’s urban population is expected to reach 865mil or 62% of the population.

- Average urban incomes are 3.3 times higher than average rural incomes.

1990 - 302mil 26.4%

2000 - 459mil 36.2%

2006 - 577mil 43.9%

2016F - 865mil 62.0%




[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 20-7-2007 12:02 AM 编辑 ]