【弧菌 个人专区】

湖俊

今晚要收拾下对MPHB的资料。多几天业绩报告要出来了。若FY2009全年的EPS有0.267，那么以目前的股价PE才6.xx，若再宣布派息跟去年一样1毛，那么DY则有6.x %。

现在的EPS会看起来这么高大部分是因为那个大量的share buy back，库存了10%的分量。若他突然宣布派红股出来，可能EPS就没那么好看了。

今晚贴资料。

K男

今晚要收拾下对MPHB的资料。多几天业绩报告要出来了。若FY2009全年的EPS有0.267，那么以目前的股价PE才6.xx ...
湖俊 发表于 8-2-2010 04:55 PM

MPHB--3系列主打歌--贴出来我请吃饭的说--过年看看能不能小聚一下

新力爱力新

有个小问题，交易日都是大家的工作日，你们怎样买卖股票？
自己在公司上网吗？

湖俊

MPHB--3系列主打歌--贴出来我请吃饭的说--过年看看能不能小聚一下
K男 发表于 8-2-2010 21:45

    我新年没假期。拜一到拜五照常做工。有上来雪隆call我。

有个小问题，交易日都是大家的工作日，你们怎样买卖股票？
自己在公司上网吗？
新力爱力新 发表于 8-2-2010 21:55

    就是在公司上网咯，你公司不给上网？不然用手机买卖咯。

K男

我新年没假期。拜一到拜五照常做工。有上来雪隆call我。




    就是在公司上网咯，你公司 ...
湖俊 发表于 8-2-2010 10:11 PM

我在云顶等你--晚上！！

新力爱力新

我新年没假期。拜一到拜五照常做工。有上来雪隆call我。

    就是在公司上网咯，你公司 ...
湖俊 发表于 8-2-2010 10:11 PM

我公司。。。别说了。。。唉。
我因为这工作错失了多少的机会。。。

湖俊

我公司。。。别说了。。。唉。
我因为这工作错失了多少的机会。。。
新力爱力新 发表于 8-2-2010 22:21

    没有这份工作你也没资本入股。看开点。

新力爱力新

没有这份工作你也没资本入股。看开点。
湖俊 发表于 8-2-2010 10:24 PM

去國外打工一年收入等于你在這里打工的N倍。。
有人去英国做几年存了RM200k回來，专拿股息就够吃了。。
Orz

湖俊

MPHB ， 马化控股，91.5% 博彩（万能4D），5.8% 财务服务（Money Lending）

找过很多research机构都没人去分析这个公司，或许这个公司没有什么特别？

TTM results:





这里贴上一些截至2008年的数据，待会我再进bursa去抓这个公司的上一个季报。

5年盈亏


5年现金流


过往股息发布：


公司的价格和其他数据：


跟其他同行的比较（注：这个是截至2008年报的数据，当时的MPHB还是多元化公司，万能是在2008年12月才完成私有化，过后MPHB也把非博彩业务给脱售了）


SHARES OUTSTANDING -- 1,077,748,654
LARGEST 30 SHAREHOLDERS -- 721,069,739
BALANCE FLOAT -- 33.09%

TOP 30 SHAREHOLDERS

#	SHAREHOLDER SHARES	HELD	%
1	CIMB GROUP NOMS SB PLED SEC ACC - CASI MGMT SB	308,766,865	28.65%
2	MULTI-PURPOSE HOLDINGS BHD SHARE BUY BACK ACC.	77,888,300	7.23%
3	ABB NOM SB PLED SEC ACC - CAIZHI DEV. SB	40,493,900	3.76%
4	MAYBAN SEC NOMS SB UOB KAY HIAN PTE LTD-MELROSE INV.PTE LTD	35,000,000	3.25%
5	HSBC NOMS SB EXE.AN-RBS COUTTS BANK LTD	34,585,100	3.21%
6	INTER-PACIFIC EQ.NOMS SB KINGSTON VENTURES CORP.	28,800,000	2.67%
7	HDM NOMS SB EXE. AN-UOB KAY HIAN PTE LTD	21,398,851	1.99%
8	MWE HOLDINGS BHD	21,117,100	1.96%
9	CRUICKSAND FINANCE LTD	16,000,000	1.49%
10	AIBB NOMS SB CHUA MA YU	13,630,000	1.26%
11	HSBC NOMS SB EXEMPT AN-CREDIT SUISSE	13,572,900	1.26%
12	HSBC NOMS SB EXE.AN-ABN AMRO BANK	11,302,300	1.05%
13	AMANAH RAYA NOMS SB PUBLIC GROUP FUND	11,161,800	1.04%
14	A.A.ANTH.NOMS SB PLED SEC ACC - MR SAKARIN UPPATTHANGKUL	8,100,000	0.75%
15	AMANAH RAYA NOMS SB PUBLIC EQ.FUND	7,990,500	0.74%
16	HSBC NOMS SB EXE.AN-CREDIT SUISSE	7,213,300	0.67%
17	CITIGROUP NOMS SB EXEMPT AN-UBS AG SPORE	6,054,863	0.56%
18	RHB NOMS SB PLED SEC ACC - MOHD AYUB BIN MOHD ALI	6,025,000	0.56%
19	TAN CHEE SING	5,939,500	0.55%
20	A.A.ANTH.NOMS SB PLED SEC ACC - MRS SUTHERA UPPANUTTHANGKUL	5,000,000	0.46%
21	CARTABAN NOMS SB EXE.AN-BARCLAYS B.PLC SPORE	5,000,000	0.46%
22	MAYBAN NOMS SB MAYBAN TRUSTEE BHD-PUBLIC BAL.FUND	4,975,000	0.46%
23	MAYBAN NOMS SB MAYBAN TRUSTEE BHD-PUBLIC AGG.GROW.FUND	4,848,100	0.45%
24	CIMSEC NOMS SB CIMB B.-KUAH HUN LIANG	4,579,100	0.43%
25	HSBC NOMS SB EXE.AN-THE BANK NEW YORK MELLON	4,550,652	0.42%
26	CITIGROUP NOM SB EXE.AN-OCBC SEC PTE LTD	4,273,535	0.40%
27	HSBC NOMS SB EXEMPT AN-THE B.OF NEW YORK MELLON	3,430,763	0.32%
28	HLG NOM SB EXEMPT AN-UOB KAY HIAN PTE LTD	3,177,669	0.29%
29	CIMSEC NOMS SB EXE.AN-CIMB-GK SEC PTE LTD	3,129,341	0.29%
30	STATE STREET LONDON FUND MATF-MARATHON NEW GLOBAL FUND PLC	3,065,300	0.28%

湖俊

去國外打工一年收入等于你在這里打工的N倍。。
有人去英国做几年存了RM200k回來，专拿股息就够吃了。。 ...
新力爱力新 发表于 8-2-2010 22:32

    不要羡慕人家。人家去外国做到第三等公民几苦啊。
在这里好好build自己的skillset，要闯出国外不难的，这里很多MNC在这里设厂，进到去就等于踏出一步。

200千用大概几年妥善的管理资金和投资，要达到不难。问题是你一个月能存多少%起来？
我情况好能50%，偶尔开销大又遇到年关或者坏车，则存40%。这些是Active income。
未来寄托是passive income。

新力爱力新

回复 30# 湖俊


    第三等公民？
老实说我在澳洲受到的待遇比這里好N倍，虽然有传闻一些洋人会歧视亚洲人，不過其实大部分洋人還是很好的，讲民主、讲人权。去年经济不好的时候澳洲政府还额外提供AUD$900给每个纳税人，连我也有收到，没有分什么土著、非土著、国民、外国人，不要小看那$900，那$900可以买到ipod、iphone的，反而RM900可以买到什么？

有一句很讽刺的话，以前的小贩希望孩子上大学，現在的大学生希望有小贩的收入。

回主题，通常被很多人注意的股就算赚极都有限，反而不被人注意的突然爆发出来才惊人。

湖俊

前的小贩希望孩子上大学，現在的大学生希望有小贩的收入
这句好。

当某一个股连路边扫街的都懂的时候，你就不好去追了。我有个做农场的兄弟敢敢问我可以买genting singapore吗。。我晕啊。。

新力爱力新

回复 32# 湖俊
这种情况我也遇过，然后我第一个放掉的就是云顶，纯粹投机玩爽，结果才赚那几十块钱。。= =
反而另一个本来不會动的在业绩公布后就一路往北走了。。
真的是要投资而不是投机。

湖俊

有时候才开始的时候，重要的是稳定下来，而不是死命找东西去投机找快钱。连本钱都亏掉就痛苦了。才开始做工存钱是很辛苦的。我花多长的时间去存到一个10千。。

湖俊

CIMB research post一个新的分析说public bank有可能需要出附加股 来meet equity capital ratio of 9-10%.
目前equity capital ratio 是 6.3%

Rights issue only in worst-case scenario. Asked about market talk of a rights issue,
Public Bank’s management confirmed that it does not have any immediate plans for it unless it has to meet a minimum equity capital ratio of 9-10%. We rate the chances of this worst-case scenario happening as low. Furthermore, we estimate that the EPS dilution of such a rights issue would only be about 5-6%. As such, we retain our positive stance on the stock, which is underpinned by the favourable earnings outlook.
The stock remains an OUTPERFORM, premised on the potential re-rating catalysts of
(1) stronger ROEs of 28-30% for FY10-12, as per the company’s target,
(2) increased contributions from Greater China, and
(3) new growth avenue in the bancassurance business.
We continue to peg the stock at a 10% premium over its DDM value, giving
us an unchanged target price of RM14.20. A recap Market talk of rights issue. In a recent briefing, management stated that it will be actively managing the bank’s capital position in view of the potential higher requirements for equity capital under the Basel Accord. A minimum required equity capital ratio of 7-8% would entail a cut in its dividend payout ratio from 80% to 50-55% while a minimum requirement of 9-10% would necessitate a rights issue. Although management views the possibility of a 9-10% minimum as low, its comments during the briefing have sparked market talk of the possibility of a rights issue.
To elaborate, the Basel committee is proposing to revise its framework under which banks globally could be required to hold higher equity capital. However, it is now in the consultative stage and no decision has been made as yet. Currently, there is no specific minimum set for equity capital ratio. There is some concern that if the minimum equity capital ratio is set as high as 9-10%, some Malaysian banks may be in shortfall of capital. Public Bank is singled out because it has the lowest equity capital ratio of only 6.3%, largely because of its generous dividend payout of more than 80% in the past 4-5 years. Other banks that could face a shortfall are AMMB (AMM MK, Outperform) and Maybank (MAY MK, Neutral), which have ratios of about 7.8%.

又说可能性不大
Low possibility of rights issue. We have confirmed with management that it does
not see the need for a rights issue at this juncture unless the bank has to meet equity capital ratios of as high as 9-10%. We concur with management’s view that the odds of the minimum equity capital ratio being set at 9-10% are low. This means that the chances of a rights issue are not significant. Furthermore, the group will not need capital for acquisitions as it is pursuing organic growth for its local and overseas businesses.
5-6% EPS dilution from rights issue. Even in the event of a rights issue, we do not think that the dilutive impact would be significant because of (1) the stock’s high P/BV valuation, and (2) its strong projected equity capital ratio of 8.8% as at end-FY12. As at end- Dec 09, the group had an equity capital ratio of 7.3%. As the dividend payout ratio has been lowered to 50-55%, we believe the funds ploughed back from earnings will be more than adequate to finance the growth of its businesses.
Based on our estimate, even if the minimum equity requirements were 9-10%, the group would have to raise only up to about RM2bn in new equity capital. Assuming a rights price of RM8.40 based on a 30% discount to the current share price of RM11.98, the group would have to issue only 240m new shares, which is about 7% of its existing total share base.
We ran a simulation to gauge the impact of a rights issue aimed at raising its equity capital ratio to 9-10% by end-2012. As Figure 1 shows, the dilution would only be about 5-6%. Again, this is mainly due to the (1) limited shortfall in capital to meet the potential 9-10% minimum equity capital ratio, and (2) limited new shares to be issued.

K男

MPHB ， 马化控股，91.5% 博彩（万能4D），5.8% 财务服务（Money Lending）

找过很多research机构都没人 ...
湖俊 发表于 8-2-2010 10:55 PM

几乎牢牢被基金控制着票量--和GAB-BJTOTO-CSCSTEL近似。。。从这些基金着手-看看他们还涉足那些-尤其是外资银行基金--通常这些外资银行投资基金都不太会去碰那些巫统股【炒股】--当然无可否认会有个关键就是本地人转一手通过第三者【外资投资基金】再次有本地股票的可能--尤其是高盛那些投行的基金。。。重点是外资商业银行基金。。。

以前有人专门分享万能的--万能私有化后才比较会去看MPHB--要不也没什么看头

湖俊

MPHB, 09年预测全年EPS 为 0.32，那么以目前的股价，PE 为 6.xx

ee33

前的小贩希望孩子上大学，現在的大学生希望有小贩的收入
这句好。

当某一个股连路边扫街的都懂的时候， ...
湖俊 发表于 8-2-2010 11:36 PM

10年前每个人也是懂买Public Bank/Genting/IOI稳赚不赔，多少人买了？
10年前买Public Bank/Genting/IOI的回酬你肯定会低过10年前买所谓“被忽略的千里马”？
所谓“被忽略的千里马”，怕的是我们自己可能忽略了什么，一场风暴化为乌有。

湖俊

10年前每个人也是懂买Public Bank/Genting/IOI稳赚不赔，多少人买了？
10年前买Public Bank/Genting/I ...
ee33 发表于 9-2-2010 13:03

    有道理，被人忽略什么又或者我们忽略什么结果化为乌有。

也不是说什么股热了就不值得投资，是要投资各人也要有理有据下手。

跟风那种就糟糕了。听到人家追什么他就追什么。

百万千万梦想

MPHB ， 马化控股，91.5% 博彩（万能4D），5.8% 财务服务（Money Lending）

找过很多research机构都没人 ...
湖俊 发表于 8-2-2010 10:55 PM

现在MPHB只是有magnum的生意罢了？？？还是还有其他生意？？
有谁知道万能对MPHB的财报盈利贡献占多少巴仙吗？？