從ＬＣＬ事件看ＫＮＭ危機【ＫＮＭ假帳破綻】－第15頁

goodluck88

原帖由 老散一名 于 6-2-2009 11:49 PM 发表

做什你醬得閒又要撚撚下老散我 ge？

今日周末嘛，好鬼闷。。。
散叔心情晤靓啊？

老散一名

原帖由 goodluck88 于 7-2-2009 12:10 AM 发表


今日周末嘛，好鬼闷。。。
散叔心情晤靓啊？

還好說，你 ge 彈 j j 近來都唔彩我，搗到老散我谷住谷住。
谷住谷住好鬼死辛苦 ge 嘛。

老散一名

明白事理就好，晚安。

goodluck88

要帮你X下没？

napster

原帖由 老散一名 于 7-2-2009 12:24 AM 发表
UfCiaHZYyv0&feature=related

明白事理就好，晚安。

谢谢这个短片。
很多东西大家都知道，问题是做到吗？肯做吗？

对我来说，股票是高度考验纪律的，单凭知识，理论，分析外，最重要的还是自我纪律。
很多晓得道理/分析技术的股票经纪都输钱，就是不能套上自己所懂的东西在股票买卖上，缺乏自律，股票起的时候就贪心，跌的时候就害怕。

klagigi

正如医者不能自医。。

chookf

Jackie Lee本身有了執著，腦就不清醒。
不要學他，你們自己要清醒些！
看Jackie Lee自己本身都說了：
the people (a few of them, not just one)
who have dealings with KNM advised me to stay away from the company.
但是Jackie Lee對這麼重要資訊，採取忽視態度。

你們知道誰最了解一間公司嗎？
其中一個－－－就是和公司有業務來往的人。
這類人講話是最中肯，也最可信，他們的看法勝過１００個所謂的專家。

這個訊息堅定了我的看法沒有錯！
ＫＮＭ的確是爛公司！謝謝klagigi的資訊！
這麼重要的訊號，怎麼可以視而不見？

現在不只我建議你們stay away from ＫＮＭ。
如果你們不認同而死命shoot我的同時，
我希望你們平心靜氣，仔細想想......
連和ＫＮＭ有業務往來的人都建議
stay away from ＫＮＭ。
這些人比任何的專家更了解ＫＮＭ。


【黑＠證券說】http://ckfstock.blogspot.com

chookf

我盡心了！
反正你們不是shoot我，就是各說各話，豪無探索意義。
我想除非是媒體爆出ＫＮＭ假帳，否則你們還是當作看不見的。
我相信你們不會去認真思考ＫＮＭ那超高回報率背後的深意。
也不會重視那些了解ＫＮＭ和與它有業務來往的人所說的話。


我這里唱衰ＫＮＭ財務造假，本意沒興趣和人吵架。
財務造假如果規模小，還可以長期瞞下去。
但是造的太大，就容易出問題。
根據The Star對ＫＮＭ的CEO專訪來看，
ＫＮＭ這次公布的業績估計不錯，也就是說，它還會繼續造假下去。
財務造假若造的太大，最後一定會出問題。
因為無論你怎麼造假，現實中你還是需要支付各項經營成本，
這些會實實在在的吃掉公司的現金流，一直到支撐不足的時候就會爆光。
事實上，若仔細觀察帳目，如果ＫＮＭ不是自２００４年油價不斷高漲開始，
幾年來美化帳目，股價上升，加上“專家”的追捧，再引發股價上升，如此循環，
然後借這股高油價熱潮不斷融資，不斷週轉，早就支持不下去了！
而在2007-2008年，借收購Borsig這爛公司為名，又成功“Ａ”到12億4千1百83萬馬幣，
否則現在它的財務狀況是更糟糕！
ＫＮＭ已經遠超過正常水平的幾倍，加上金融風暴，
銀行是不大可能借錢給它了！
以前ＫＮＭ還可以抵押股票來借錢，
但是現在估計下跌到這麼利害，恐怕這招也不行了！
不過從抵押股票來借錢，就可看出ＫＮＭ財務很糟糕，
因為健康的企業是不會抵押股票來借錢的。
抵押股票來借錢和抵押老婆沒分別。

借收購Borsig，ＫＮＭ借來１２.４億，
這使它的現金增加４.５倍到５.４億。
但是只３個月就縮減到４億，不見了２.６２億。
如果看經營現金更利害，收購後暴漲到３.６億，
只不過３個月就縮減到９８００萬。
依據這個燒錢速度，０８年１２月的現金估計約２.６億，
如此只須６－９個月就會面對週轉不靈的危機。
因為向銀行借錢已不可能，ＫＮＭ每年須承擔６０００千萬的金融開支，
所以ＫＮＭ只有：
１．尋求私人資本注資；
２．發行新股

ＫＮＭ因為債務太高已經騎虎難下，它只有選擇將這個假賬作下去，
一直到現金耗盡而得不到補充就會爆光。
所以要留意ＫＮＭ的現金蒸發速度。


財務造假的目的有不同，在亞洲國家，
主要的目的是美化帳目，提高股價，而方便公司“圈錢”。
所以不要奇怪為何ＫＮＭ自２００３年以來，
借的錢是自己賺的錢好幾倍。
Tranmil也是這樣的。
持有ＫＮＭ者自己保重！


【黑＠證券說】http://ckfstock.blogspot.com

chookf

你還真不開竅，又來煩我，頂你不順！

如果不是你講話喜歡暗底扎針，我才懶得罵你！
如果你什麼不爽，我給你機會一次過罵我的機會，
我不會罵回你，你罵完就走！以後井水不犯河水！

你自己都知道你我是雞同鴨講，還來煩我幹麼？
走吧！走吧！你很煩啊！

klagigi

这是DALI的blog, 青色highlight部分是Rock的comment

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/01/whats-shaking-knm.html

Friday, January 02, 2009What's Shaking KNM

What could KNM be doing to defraud investors? Fraudulent contracts, artificial jobs, not being paid, raising up debtors as revenue, cancellation of work orders, margin calls on controlling shareholder if any, impairment in the goodwill of Borsig, etc...

KNM has been sold down owing to it being a oil infrastructure play. The stock will see great volatility as the controlling shareholder holds less than 25%, next being EPF with 7.7% on nearly 4bn shares. When a controlling shareholder holds less than 25%, one tends to be suspicious.

However if you look at KNM's business model, it is one built on acquisition and managing growth by integration. Purchases are often funded by issuance of new shares thus the huge free float. Safe to say that when markets tumble, the minority but substantive shareholders (of previously merged smaller companies) will tend to throw their shares. Its part and parcel of investing in KNM.

Fund managers love it and hate it, love it because its business model is scalable, hate it because its a thematic stock. Love it because it has very good free float, hate it because it has very good free float. When oil prices are high, its an excellent proxy, same on the way down.

A fraudulent company can be easily found out in international markets, its only when its a closed door thing like Madoff or the Enron case where only a few people move figures around that can lure many unsuspecting people. When you are international markets, you have to deal with fellow peers and it becomes hard to hide company's strategies and dealings. If you check with its global peers such as FMC Technologies and Cameron International, their stock price movements mirrors that of KNM. The way KNM executes its strategy, via acquisitions, makes it even more cumbersome to do fraudulent things because there's always the "fair valuation exercise", "due diligence exercise", a seperate life before the acquisition, blah blah... you cannot really expect to overpay and do hanky panky without analysts whacking you.

The abortion of the purchase of Ellimetal NV for 20m euros shows good sense in recognising bad timing and recognising when the industry has turned. KNM has instead agreed to market Ellimetal's technology and products to KNM's Southeast Asian client base.

KNM's other aggressive planned expansion into mining for oil sands in Canada has been rightly halted. The tar sands is only profitable is price of oil is more than $85. Even if price of oil improves, a lot more strategic thinking and financial planning needs to be done before venturing into that sub sector.

Some concerns focused on the free cash flow and the enormous goodwill. One should look closely at their business model, which is acquisition by minimal cash but a lot of shares issuance, that in itself brings about a certain accounting character to lumpy items. When you do shares issuance acquisition, you want a profitable company with quality, predictable earnings - as the latter will be able to work down on the goodwiil or premium you are paying or else the share issuance program will work negatively thus destroying company value very quickly. In that sense one should appreciate KNM's strategy to buy very secure companies with secure earnings, but they also come with a price, which is usually a lot higher than book NTA, or else why would they sell to you. Its a corporate finance game which KNM plays relatively well. Their swift decisions to abort the oil tar sands and Ellimetal projects tells me that they know the game well, stop doing the acquisition tango when the trend is gone.

Sigh, KNM should hire me to do their corporate PR and institutional strategy relations... but it won't be cheap... and yes, I will take KNM share options ...lol.

Outstanding order in the books stands at RM4.3bn which is still 180% of revenue of the previous financial year. Assuming orders are zero for the next 6 months (while in actuality they are in bidding for over RM22bn of projects), and even if 20% of existing orders get cancelled, KNM is not going down the drain. That's because it has a very manageable net gearing of less than 20%.

The big danger I see is Borsig's RM1.6bn goodwill. KNM will have to ensure that Borsig is continually profitable in order to be able amortise that down over a certain period properly. If Borsig suddenly turns unprofitable, then yes, KNM is in the hell hole as that amounts to 90% of KNM's shareholder funds being wiped out instantly.

Part of KNM's rapid selldown a few months back was due to the forced selling of over 70m shares of Lee Swee Eng (the controlling shareholder) owing to the collapsed in share price and margin calls, and a subsequent selldown by Fidelity. The forced sale basically took out just 2% from Lee's stake, so its not catastrophic.

Its forward PE is at a ridiuclous 3x, even Ramunia has a higher PER. I like KNM because its a volatile stock with very good free float and will be a strong proxy on a recovery in oil prices. There are just less buyers on anything to do with oil stuff now, and KNM still has a relatively high level of foreign shareholders, nearly 30% which will dominate the price trends. I think a subtle recovery in oil will push KNM through this difficult period.

p/s photo: 2r



Posted by Salvatore_Dali at 9:47 AM




Labels: KNM, oil prices

klagigi

接上一楼。。

6 comments: KoSong Cafe said... From what I gathered, their acquisition in Italy was successful before they went into Germany. They certainly know what they are doing and the share price movements, especially during these uncertain times, were something beyond their control, with the large free float. As you have mentioned, this is also good in terms of transparency. If you believe in their abilities and invest, at least it would not be because of fraud if it didn't turn out well.
12:05 PM Butt said... There's some ppl may take a more cautious view on knm and hope it will not be another transmile
1:38 PM grahamsmun said... the key is the acquisition of borsig with huge intangible(where about Rm 1.5billion is utilised), what is the profit contribution of this company ?
Bcos of this acquisition the borrowing increase by About Rm 800 million.
2:22 PM slow said... Personally, there just seems like too much risk on this one - (1) industry risk (O&G investment capex spend) (2) operational risk (can they deliver with the right quality on time or do a Ramunia), (3) an aggressive roll up strategy (integration issues) (4) funding risks (Debt financin risks as equity raising is tough

My 2 cents worth.
3:08 PM Tony said... Whatever it is, thanks for the tip Dali. I made enough for a nice vacation on KNM today. Just an aside: have you read the forum article by a Dr ahmad Kamil Mydin Meera in the edge titled: Global economic poser for Obama? I cannot comprehend what he is trying to say. He is the dean of islamic finance at IIU. Pity his students.
4:31 PM The Rock said... I have been following KNM since early 2006. Made some small money. Recently I reviewed it again and asked around - what's happening to the price?

Well the inside news is a total shock to me. No analyst or newspaper have a clue to what is really happening in the company or to its financial backers.

While it's probably not going to be a Transmile, but the people[a few of them, not just one] who have dealings with KNM advised me to stay away from the company.

One of the worse thing that happened to them was that the promoter's strongest financial backer decided to pull the plug ! That's is when u see the share price started to crash ! It has nothing to do with foreign funds. This is a local guy.

Second is KNM overpaid for Borsig. When a PE firm sells you something you got to ask WHY WHY WHY ? It was done at almost the peak of the oil cycle. Any acquisitions done in 2007 or even 2006 will be costly to the buyers. Look at Rio Tinto now trying to swallow their USD38 bil debt for buying Alcan ! It can actually bring down RIo if they can't get refinancing or the economy gets worse from here.

The 3rd point is I was told KNM is linked to a political figure whose fortune has taken a turn for the worse since the March 8 general election. This point is related to the first point.

Don't ask me to reveal the names of the no.1 and no.3 guys. If you think what I say here is credible - good. If not - it's your problem.

I have bought Transmile shares before it crashed and suffered massive losses when the fraud was announced. Lesson learnt : when in doubt - don't touch.

They are so many other clean stocks/companies to buy/invest. Why bother with a stock just because it was the darling of the analysts, whom none have had business dealings with KNM !! My sources are people who actually have had dealings with them. It is not based on newspaper or desktop analysis.

You need to have an inside track in the current crisis before you jump in and put your money at risk. The low tide will expose more fraud. MY advise - wait for a few more months and see if any more funny business surfaces. No point trying to jump in now hoping to catch at the bottom when we just don't know where and when is the bottom !

Just trying to be helpful...caveat emptor.
2:21 PM

klagigi

Jackie Lee就在自己的blog以Rock的comment发表了看法和反驳。。

青色字highlight是Rock的comment(我楼上post的DALI blog里那段)

红色字highlight是Jackie Leek针对是Rock的comment的看法和反驳

http://malaysianshares.blogspot.com/2009_01_01_archive.html

Monday, January 5, 2009
KNM Group Berhad. 13,000,000 Units Accumulated by EPF.
Early in the morning I have posted some article about KNM (written by Mr. Dali). What I disagree about that this thing shouldn't be mention at all if there is nothing to support the statement that Mr. Rock mention. Here was his comment that he left on Mr Dali article in Malaysian Finance Blogspot. I think I need to answer some of his question if you all don't mind. It might be true and it might be wrong also. Just make your judgement.

The Rock has left a new comment on Mr Dali post "What's Shaking KNM":

I have been following KNM since early 2006. Made some small money. Recently I reviewed it again and asked around - what's happening to the price? Well the inside news is a total shock to me. No analyst or newspaper have a clue to what is really happening in the company or to its financial backers.

While it's probably not going to be a Transmile, but the people (a few of them, not just one) who have dealings with KNM advised me to stay away from the company.



One of the worse thing that happened to them was that the promoter's strongest financial backer decided to pull the plug ! That's is when u see the share price started to crash ! It has nothing to do with foreign funds. This is a local guy.

Jackie Lee : Point no.1 - Share price started to crash? This is nonsense. If we check on all the share prices, there are many counters facing the same situation since July 08 until now ever since the KL Composite started to move downtrend. KLK from as high as RM 19.00 drop to RM 7.00 in six months, would you call they are facing some problems ?

Second is KNM overpaid for Borsig. When a PE firm sells you something you got to ask WHY WHY WHY ? It was done at almost the peak of the oil cycle. Any acquisitions done in 2007 or even 2006 will be costly to the buyers. Look at Rio Tinto now trying to swallow their USD38 bil debt for buying Alcan ! It can actually bring down Rio if they can't get refinancing or the economy gets worse from here.

Jackie Lee : Point no. 2 – Who will know when you done a transaction it was at its peak of oil cycle. I think during that time most of us never knew that oil prices will reach USD 147 per barrel in July 08 and drop until USD 35 per barrel in December 08. This is what we call business. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Right at this moment the global financial crisis just only started. It is only 4 months old. Would there be any problem during this short time of period for Borsig ?

The 3rd point is I was told KNM is linked to a political figure whose fortune has taken a turn for the worse since the March 8 general election. This point is related to the first point.

Jackie Lee : Point no. 3 – You was told KNM was linked to a political figure. Can I ask you a question, did any of the project that has been awarded to KNM has been taken back since March 8 general election. Political figure is easily to get some contract. Without the political figure I don’t think it is a problem for them because we must remember that the government’s is still the Barisan Nasional not Pakatan Rakyat.

Don't ask me to reveal the names of the no.1 and no.3 guys. If you think what I say here is credible - good. If not - it's your problem. I have bought Transmile shares before it crashed and suffered massive losses when the fraud was announced. Lesson learnt : when in doubt - don't touch.

Jackie Lee : You brought Transmile share during their share prices are higher. I think probably at RM 10.00 to RM 12.00, so it not a surprise if you suffer a lost at this level. KNM Group Berhad at RM 0.40 to RM 0.45 per share what do you expect ?

They are so many other clean stocks/companies to buy/invest. Why bother with a stock just because it was the darling of the analysts, whom none have had business dealings with KNM !! My sources are people who actually have had dealings with them. It is not based on newspaper or desktop analysis. You need to have an inside track in the current crisis before you jump in and put your money at risk. The low tide will expose more fraud.

Jackie Lee : Market is going for a trend reversal and EPF is accumulating the shares. 13,000,000 unit. I think EPF is wiser in making any decision in terms of their investment. KNM also lauching a share buy back programs at about RM 0.40 to RM 0.70 per share. Now their treasury share is about 36,290,200 units. At RM 0.40 over cents still cannot buy for short term play ?

MY advise - wait for a few more months and see if any more funny business surfaces. No point trying to jump in now hoping to catch at the bottom when we just don't know where and when is the bottom ! Just trying to be helpful...caveat emptor.

Jackie Lee : Because of this unreliable source or rumours, it has hamper many player to go in and make some profit out of it. This is a share market and anything can happen. I didn’t blame on The Rock for leaving a comments to Dali’s. He is just trying to give his concerns over KNM. It is just that RM 0.40 to RM 0.45 is indeed very cheap and if the counter went up to RM 0.70, it would be so disappointed that we were left out from this upwards bandwagon.



Today KNM Group Berhad share prices close at RM 0.48 per share.


Posted by Jackie Lee at 10:55 PM 5 comments

klagigi

呼。。呼。。好累喔。。早午餐还没吃的说。。
为免给人误会。。还是赶快把人家的整篇blog完全显现出来再加一些说明。。

8years

整篇文章都是废话，除了这句是精华

KNM has been sold down owing to it being a oil infrastructure play. The stock will see great volatility as the controlling shareholder holds less than 25%


又看到megan的影子 世界就是那么巧，megan最后的贷款也是接近8亿。

chookf

原帖由 klagigi 于 7-2-2009 12:48 PM 发表
呼。。呼。。好累喔。。早午餐还没吃的说。。
为免给人误会。。还是赶快把人家的整篇blog完全显现出来再加一些说明。。

看來你還是不清楚關鍵，
還是忽視與ＫＮＭ有業務來往的人看法，
寧願相信根本沒有接觸過ＫＮＭ的說法．．．
無法領悟到與公司有業務來往的人意見的重要性．．．

這是你看法，我給予尊重．．．

下來，就靜靜看０８年９月，
ＫＮＭ的４億現金，可以頂到何時？
別完記，它每年需要還的金融欠款就需要６０００千萬，
這比它平時創造的現金還多．．．．

看ＫＮＭ的４億現金可以茍延殘喘到何時？

chookf

8years兄，
到目前為止，沒有人可以為我說明KNM的回報率，
為何可以２年多拿回機器，土地，廠房的投資本錢？
以及１１５％的ＲＯＥ的深意，
你可以幫忙解釋一下嗎？

因為由我在這解釋，肯定會被SHOOT

[ 本帖最后由 chookf 于 7-2-2009 01:37 PM 编辑 ]

chookf

原帖由 8years 于 7-2-2009 01:25 PM 发表
又看到megan的影子 世界就是那么巧，megan最后的贷款也是接近8亿。  ...

亞洲國家的上市公司，作假賬的目的主要是Ａ錢！
其特點就是：
借的錢比賺的錢還多！
Megan, Tranmil，都是一樣的

8years

“１１５％的ＲＯＥ的深意”
这我有一些意见，虽然我不清楚knm如何操作。不过以我们project base的公司，ROE115%或1150%很多时候是可以做到的。这是project base公司的特点，如我自己本身公司一样。

但是我不能确定knm是如何运作，我对knm的115%ROE也是有点惊讶。

chookf

Some concerns focused on the free cash flow and the enormous goodwill. One should look closely at their business model ... [/quote]

這句話令我想起了網絡泡沫時，
那些迷戀網絡的人只注意那些花俏的business model ，
忽視了cash flow ．．．

結果大家都知道了

chookf

原帖由 8years 于 7-2-2009 01:48 PM 发表
但是我不能确定knm是如何运作，我对knm的115%ROE也是有点惊讶。 ...

除非是小小小小小資本生意，或者已經成精的ＢＡＴ，否則不可能有115%ROE．．．
因為脫離了現實！

而ＫＮＭ只需要２年多就可以取回機器投資的成本，
在工業公司，是不可能的．．．

簡單的說，就是謊話說的太誇張了！
所以理智的人看到這種回報率就知道有問題了！

多數人分析公司時有一個盲點，就是重視NET PROFIT！
但很少人會清楚認識到，創造NET PROFIT的基礎來自
CURRENT ASSETS，而CURRENT ASSETS來自FIXED ASSETS......

也就是說，NET PROFIT的基礎建立在ASSETS上，
所以他不可能脫離地心吸引力而飛上天！
如果出現飛離狀況，除非是特別盈利，否則就是造假！

一直以來，KNM掩飾的不錯，但是因為收購BORSIG而顧得了NET PROFIT，
卻忽視創造NET PROFIT的基礎－－ASSETS的合理性！
結果ASSETS和NET PROFIT出現嚴重的不平衡矛盾！

所以我非常肯定KNM有財務造假！
加上和KNM有業務來往的人都說stay away，
這是最有力的證明！

這也是巴菲特說EPS是煙幕，
叫我們注重ROE的原因！

[ 本帖最后由 chookf 于 7-2-2009 02:16 PM 编辑 ]