【AIRASIA 5099 交流专区 1】亚洲航空

OceanGalaxy

最新消息！是不是这新闻导致亚航今日狂跌？

http://www.theage.com.au/news/news/airasias-expansion-to-continue-despite-oil-price/2008/06/23/1214073104339.html

chopnel

原帖由 cchleong 于 23-6-2008 12:59 PM 发表
昨天OPEC开始开会探讨油价问题，
沙地已经答应增加产量，
其他国家还未同意，
有的人担心会议结果将导致油价再度攀升，
美联储也将在本周开会探讨利息政策，
可能维持现有水平或升息，
维持的话，油价就可能再 ...

亚航是吃亏在财力不够，无法有效的在油价上做护盘。

蚂蚁小弟

转帖,一个部落客

To be honest, my initial reaction when I read this is "You Got to be Joking"! This must surely be a "Big Talk" by the CEO in response to sagging AIRASIA prices (closed 87.5 sen, close to all time low). Only time I suppose will prove whether he is right or wrong.

There is some logic to what he says. In times like this, I can accept that there will be more rational competition within the industry, and from a business owner perspective, this should be beneficial in terms of ability to price higher as a general comment.

But I also seriously wonder what Tony means by "profitable". We all know that Reported Profit is not the same thing as Cash Flow. And the definition of Profits can mean different things depending on which side of the fence the Accountant sits. Ultimately, Cash is King and this is not necessarily the same thing as Profit. And I noticed that the $162M Profit reported here - this time whilst acknowledging Foreign exchange gain - still did not acknowledge the Tax Credits. And Tax Credits is not real Cash. Excluding both, it's still not $162M but $23M. (see my earlier article on where $23M is derived - http://fusioninvestor.blogspot.com/2008/05/edge-on-airasia.html). I don't sense Tony (or the Journalist) is being completely honest here in attributing the profit growth, and this to me is worrying. Why? Because when management starts lying to the public, the biggest danger is not when they don't fool the public, but when they end up lying to themselves and start believing their lies, and then make new decisions based on the half-truths. Of course, not all lies told are intentional. But this is a source of concern, because they might not be facing up to the full truth.

Second is the policy of not hedging during "volatile" times. Today is June, and he says he is still hedged from Apr to June. I wondered why he didn't say this (not hedging during volatile times) a lot earlier like late last year. I mean when did he come to the realization that oil is now volatile? This month? Last month? I think anyone - who tracks crude oil price closely and observe crude oil price charts - should see a price break-out above $80 happening as early as September last year. Break-outs are by definition "volatile" times, since when this happens, the market price breaks out, and becomes much higher than all previous prices before then. If this phenomena is not volatile then, then, I don't know what is (volatile). So, wouldn't one reasonably expect that this "realization" should have happened by September last year? But did he stopped hedging by September last year?

Perhaps $80 is still not "high enough". Ok. What about by December last year (5-6 months ago) when it broke out above $100? Surely it must be considered volatile already by then. After all, just months before that, it was trading at half the price (only $50-$55)? So, I am really curious as to when he came to that realization that crude oil first became"volatile". And my query is did he stopped hedging by December last year? If not, why not?

Or is this "stop hedging decision" a new decision just made this month? For the purpose of promoting this news article? I'm not an AirAsia fan, so, I might not have noticed it and perhaps, he might just be reiterating what is already a policy previously.

The other concern I have is the nature of the business itself. There is no doubt that times are tougher now. Higher global and domestic inflation arising from increase in global commodity and food prices, with multiplier / chain-reaction effects. Air travel will either reduce or suffer a smaller growth rate - okay, not as bad as 2003 SARS perhaps, but adversely affected nonetheless. (Don't tell me the current crisis are all planned and known in advance last year.) But unlike 2003 SARS, the business, global and operating environment (e.g. price of crude oil, etc.) today is very different and volatile. Back in 2003, crude oil "peak" is only $40. Today the peak is $140. Has airfares increased proportionately? Or are we still seeing heavily discounted fares in the industry? Or has the competition gone worse in terms of pricing?

Further interest rates are set to rise with higher inflation. I don't think AirAsia financing needs and costs are going to come down any time soon. Instead, with further new planes coming in and further expansion plans, they will eventually need further increase in financing, and one can only expect AA's financing costs to go up relatively higher than its competitors with better looking balance sheets. AirAsia's relatively newer fleet too will be hit hard with higher depreciation costs relative to its competitors with older plane fleets, at the a time when air travel revenues are likely to face a squeeze rather than growing fast.

To me, this is a very risky business plan. As Tony acknowledge, the prudent plan is to scale down expansion plans, cut down new aircraft purchases or defer buying. The obvious risk is that AA ends up with a lot more planes and excess capacity than it really needs or can utilize reasonably. This is a comparative analysis comparing current situation, future situation against past situation in a general manner. Of course, if anyone has very specific modelling which clearly show the situation in the past, present and future (3 scenarios), then, I'll be very happy to comment. But in my own judgement, if Airasia were to find itself to become unprofitable, I am afraid, it would become extremely difficult if not impossible to get out of the hole as it is playing an extremely high stake game with such huge borrowings and expansion plans. Buffett's analogy of driving with a knife pointing at the driver's heart comes into mind, because the slightest pothole and bump is likely to kill the driver.

Anyway, only time will tell whether AirAsia will come out smelling like roses, or we'll see serious deterioration in profits.

I do like though Tony's attempts at trying everything possible to make sure that AA remains profitable, including selling washing machines. All good managers are like that - extremely determined, persistent, and innovative. The only problem is I'm not sure I want to carry that heavy washing machine home by myself ... but I'm sure Tony will think of home delivery service as well before I can think of it! But at the end of the day, Air Asia must know its core competency, and I'm again reminded by Buffett's quote that when good managers faces a business with deteriorating economics, the latter usually almost always wins.

komodoview

http://www.mees.com/energy_tables/crude-oil.htm

Arab Saudi一直以来都是美国的盟友。大部分OPEC国家的产量都很接近quota，只有Arab Saudi长期超越quota。

而且听OPEC最近的言论，他们都把高油价的责任推给投机客。我不敢任何答案，但这是不是也代表他们大部分国家没有提高产量的意思呢？

老实说，hedging不需要花多少钱罢了...
进入个swap或forward contract除了给brokerage fee好像是一分钱也不用出的吧？只是等到期了再结算罢了，不是吗？

２００７年底，ＡＡ有ＲＭ４２５ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎ。
这样也不够ＡＡ　ｈｅｄｇｅ吗？

而且从Ｔｏｎｙ的谈话访问就不难发现ＡＡ不是不能，而是不想要ｈｅｄｇｅ。Ｔｏｎｙ的作风越来越大胆，ＡＡ的风险也越来越高。从不ｈｅｄｇｅ到在整个行业前进暗淡，同行们在ｒｅｄｕｃｅ　ｓｉｚｅ他却趁机扩充都足以说明了吧？

可能高风险会带来高回筹吧？但我想ＡＡ趋向高风险是很明显的事。各位大大怎么认为？

蚂蚁小弟

转帖文章的总结
“ I'm again reminded by Buffett's quote that when good managers faces a business with deteriorating economics, the latter usually almost always wins.”

khokhokho

眼前的失意，並不代表未來是失意，亞航的投資者，你們信心有多少呢？

亞航的股價下跌，對亞航是沒有任何危機的，反而是給他們（外資和大股東）大量收購。

為何如此講呢?
因為大部份的股權都在外資和自已手里，就算股價去到 RM 0.500也對亞航沒什麼，要反收購的人也無法動搖亞航的主權。
因為亞航已經講明了，不分股息，是放在銀行里生利息　

這樣子又能從銀行的利息來幫助亞航去做更多的手行航線，所以亞航只要有現金在銀行里做擔保，那銀行也就會很樂意的借出資金讓亞航運作。 （明智的運用現金流，五億現金的銀行利息，一年就可以護盤油價的運作）。

所以買的人也不要太在意為何亞航不去頂往股價下跌，反而讓它自由走動，因為明顯的就是一但亞航護盤股價的話，分分鐘的資金丟進海里，因為敵人要玩慘一家公司，會從股票下手，但是亞航的股票在市埸來講，別人更本無法收足票來收購亞航公司，所以外資一直買進的原因也在此。

如果亞航沒現金流來講，我敢肯定銀行會第一個要退出支援亞航和外資肯定賣票，所以一時失意，並不代表完全失意。

chopnel

被油价“逼死”的航空公司

2008年05月08日19:33　 来源： 财经时报  

　　如果油价一直维持高水平，每一家航空公司都将面临破产厄运

　　油价高涨，导致美国航空业至今未能摆脱亏损困境，航空公司破产时有发生。

　　美国Champion Air 航空公司近日宣布，因航油价格前所未有的大幅增长，从5月31日之后，ChampionAir航空公司将停飞旗下所有的波音727客机。

　　与Champion Air 航空公司“同病相怜”的美国航空公司还有许多。

　　4月初，美国ATA航空公司提出破产保护申请并停止营业。这是ATA航空公司在3年内第二次宣布破产。ATA第一次申请破产保护是在2004年10月，当削减航线等一系列措施实施之后，该公司于2006年2月脱离破产保护。但高涨的油价使ATA在恢复正常运营两年后重新申请破产。

　　同时，经营夏威夷航线60年之久的美国Aloha航空公司也因油价攀升而破产并停止运营。

　　《财经时报》注意到，5月5日，纽约商交所指标原油期价大幅上涨，一度突破120美元关口，创下每桶120.36美元历史新高。

　　高油价下，小型廉价航空公司无疑是首当其冲的受害者。廉价航空公司凭借提供低廉的票价，吸引客源，提高客座率实现盈利。廉价航空要求管理者必须首先严格控制成本，然而，不断攀高的油价对这种运营模式提出挑战，因为航油成本往往占据其40％的成本。在成本剧增之下，廉价航空公司的利润空间所剩有限。

　　4月5日，成立不到一年的美国廉价航空公司Skybus突然宣布，将申请破产保护并立刻停止营运。专家认为，Skybus公司误判市场潜能，高油价是导致其破产的罪魁祸首。

　　随后，美国廉价航空公司Aloha和ATA相继宣布破产停业，之后，美国Frontier航空又成为第四家申请破产保护的廉价航空公司。

　　4月26日，美国小型航空公司EOS申请破产保护，这是又一家因燃料价格高涨和美国经济增长放缓而被迫宣告破产的航空公司。从4月27日，EOS公司完全停止运营。

　　在油价攀升的打压之下，美国航空公司并不是唯一陷入破产困境的航空企业。

　　意大利航空公司（以下简称“意航”）日前负债超过12亿欧元，因航油节节攀升同样濒临破产。

　　资料显示，截至1月底，意航的可支配资金和金融信贷为2820万欧元，并且平均每月减少23.2％，急需新股东注入资金才能避免破产。

　　事实上，意大利财政部早在2006年12月就已经启动了意航的股权私有化进程。

　　意大利政府曾宣布，将其持有的意航49.9％股份中的大部分出售。但参与竞标的法国航空、德国汉莎等几家大型航空公司均由于种种原因而中止收购意航谈判。法国航空公司终止收购谈判后，意航平均每天亏损160万美元。

　　4月21日，法航－荷航集团发表公告称，集团对意航发出的收购要约中的约定承诺不再有效。为厘清有关收购的“法律形势”，该集团收回对意航的收购要约。

　　意大利政府17个月来为意航寻找买家的梦想再次成为泡影。

　　相似的故事同样在亚洲上演。

　　世界第一个长途廉价航空公司——甘泉香港航空公司（Oasis Hong Kong Airlines）已于4月9日停飞。

　　在香港时间5月6日，甘泉香港航空公司发布通告，香港法院已委任毕马威会计师事务所的EdwardMiddleton及PatrickCowley为公司的临时清盘人，并于香港时间同日下午2时起接管本公司。

　　甘泉香港航空公司总裁李卓民称，燃料价格的飞涨迫使公司采取停飞举措，这是首家遭清盘的香港廉价航空公司。

　　国航董秘黄斌告诉《财经时报》：“航油价格直接影响航空公司业绩。国际航线的航油价格随国际市场波动，航空公司可以通过提高燃油附加费来缓解部分压力。”

　　据《财经时报》了解，国内燃油附加费的上调释放了大约2/3的航油上涨成本。但燃油附加费的上调无疑将影响到航空公司的客座率。

　　《财经时报》还了解到，国内航线航油的零售价是由出厂价、航油公司进销差价和航油公司的进口航油差价补贴相加而得。进销差价属于制度化规定，一般不轻易变动；出厂价由国家发改委决定。

　　4月初，在国际航油一片涨价声中，中国航油价格出人意料地不升反降，市场将航油价格上涨预期推到了7月份。

　中信证券(600030行情,股吧)的测算表明，国内外航油价差达到1116元/吨，理论上国内航油价格仍有2188元的提价空间。中信证券预期第三季度中国航油涨价幅度在600元/吨至1200元/吨。国航内部对油价的敏感性分析为：油价每上涨100元/吨，航油成本将增加1.45亿元。

　　可见，对中国航空公司来说，油价攀升压力依然明显存在。

　　“但航空业依然是全面受益人民币升值的行业之一。虽然同样遭遇油价攀升压力，但对公司业绩影响不是太大。”东星航空公司常务副总经理汪彦琨告诉《财经时报》。

　　但国外分析师认为，航油价格是全球航空业的敏感问题。如果油价一直维持高水平，每一家航空公司都将面临破产厄运。

　　作者：本报记者 陶海青

守护神9413

没子弹， 买不到这支股

江湖

Tony在为股东们创造绝佳的买入机会，
如果怕错过的话，把你的资金分10次分批买入。。。

买卖自付/自负

lancer7

1)替换下来的boeing 737,AA会卖出去.”

针对你这个问题,我已经mail了AA,
以下是AA回复给我的mail:

Hi Ivan,

We own 7 737-300 and we have already sold them recently.

With regards to the other 737-300, those aircraft are leased aircraft and we will return them to the lessor.

Best Regards,
Mohshin Aziz

chopnel

原帖由 komodoview 于 23-6-2008 03:39 PM 发表
http://www.mees.com/energy_tables/crude-oil.htm

Arab Saudi一直以来都是美国的盟友。大部分OPEC国家的产量都很接近quota，只有Arab Saudi长期超越quota。

而且听OPEC最近的言论，他们都把高油价的责任推给投 ...

请问有那位大大知道，亚航以下的燃油护盘是亏了多少?

原帖由 Luckystar2008 于 12-1-2008 08:40 PM 发表


亞航停止油價投機性護盤-12th Jan 2008

（新加坡11日訊）在錯誤預測油價而導致其股價于上個月暴跌16%后，亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板貿服股）決定停止對油價進行投機性護盤。


亞航首席執行員東尼費南德斯表示，「這是個噩夢，因油價的波動走勢已顯瘋狂。」

「我們估計油價不會走至90美元水平，但是油價確實上揚至有關水平，而且還停留在該水平。」

僑豐投資銀行分析員表示，若油價維持在該水平，亞航的盈利會因為投機性的護盤，而每月減少260萬美元。儘管油價上漲，亞航無意調高票價。

東尼費南德斯在接受《彭博社》專訪時說，「你無法一直調高票價，油價的上漲並未與薪金的漲幅同步。」

3.8%股權場外易手

另一方面，亞洲航空今日有3.8%股權在場外易手。

大馬交易所的資料顯示，這批9020萬股的股票是在下午3時32分易手 ，交易價為1億3600萬令吉，相等于每股1.51令吉。

kim777

哈哈，没法子，最近压力大，又要工作，又要念书，又要研究AA几时跌停才进场，不学你们后生的开开心心的调调那里撑得住 。。。

lancer7

AirAsia selling of a 150,000 barrels per month call option at USD 82.60 per barrel with a knock-in price at USD 90 per barrel between Jan 08 to June 2010.

这段句字说AirAsia在每个月会卖空150,000桶石油,价钱在每桶USD 82.60.但是,AAset了它的止损点(knock-in代表当石油到了USD 90per barrel的时候,AA会”买回”石油)

假设从Jan 08 到 June 2010,石油的价格是保持在每桶USD 90以上:

每桶的亏损 = USD 90 – USD 82.60 = USD 7.40
每个月的亏损额= USD 7.40 x 150,000 = USD 1,110,000
一年的亏损 = USD 1,110,000 x 12 = USD 13,320,000

注意: AA这个举止不是hedge,它是赌石油价格回落.

所幸,AA已经通过long call option来补偿它的一部分亏损了

ThermoFisher

亞航股價年內挫49%

（吉隆坡23日訊）高企油價侵蝕盈利的陰影揮之不去，亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板貿易）跌跌不休，淪為綜合指數成分股中跌幅最大的個股，今年來劇挫49%！亞航今日以平盤86.5仙掀開本週序幕，爾后直線滑落，跌幅一度擴大到6仙或7.45%，不但寫下盤中80.5仙的最低水平，更是綜指成分股跌幅最大的個股。

休市時，亞航掛82仙，下滑4.5仙，成交量達910萬9200股，也是熱門股之一。

亞航在5月20日首次跌破當年首發股（IPO）1.16令吉水平，然后5月28日滑破1令吉水平，隨后在重重賣壓下一再趨低。

《彭博社》報導指出，由于擔心飆漲油價將侵蝕盈利，投資者紛紛減持股權，導致亞航寫下自5月27日以來的最大跌幅。

T. Rowe上週出售亞航共1450萬股，減持股權至6.2%。

報導說，亞航今年來已挫跌多達49%，綜指則下滑約18%。

僑豐投資研究分析員吳保雲則說：“現在再已沒有任何可購入航空類股的特別理由。”

閉市時，亞航報82仙，跌4.5仙，全日成交量為1214萬700股。

Mr.Business

乖乖不得了。。。



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AIRASIA

(5099) 12:06:08



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Last Done 0.780

Change -0.040

Day High 0.820

Day Low 0.775

Best Buy 0.775

Best Sell 0.780

Volume(Lot) 101186

股友

之前捞底的散仔jia lat 咯。

tan81

教住他们不要捞了，还是有人坚持。
不过，对于那些相信AA 价值的，今天又是值得庆祝的一天。

Mr.Business

只怕没有子弹了。。。跌到这个价钱是很恐怖的，这样的价钱还有人卖。

khokhokho

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 24-6-2008 12:23 PM 发表
只怕没有子弹了。。。跌到这个价钱是很恐怖的，这样的价钱还有人卖。

投資股票本來就是風險的一門生意，所以看的開的人，就算lose了也不會如何。

ThermoFisher

可能T. Rowe＂奉旨＂脱手全部亚洲航空股权，但愿意接手的人不多，所以价钱才会越跌越难看。。。。