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发表于 30-11-2008 02:10 PM
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原帖由 Mr.Business 于 30-11-2008 01:54 PM 发表 
如果我没记错，PPB的棕油业务是通过在Singapore上市的Wilmar所经营。喜欢PPBoil的基金会直接投资Wilmar，而不是买进PPB，PPB只是holding company status（棕油业务）而已。。之前有人说Wilmar高涨，PPB显得便宜，所以应该买进PPB，这只是个不逻辑的想法而已。。。
Batu Kawan和KL Kepong是另一个例子。
Batu Kawan offers much cheaper entry to KL Kepong
26-08-2005
With signs that crude palm oil (CPO) prices may be bottoming out amid a more favourable outlook, we think some plantation stocks deserve a re-look. At RM1,380 per tonne, CPO prices have fallen 30% from last April’s peak of RM2,000 and 15% from last year’s average of RM1,610.
The recent haze did spark some interest in plantation stocks. While the haze is gone, there are other bigger catalysts for the commodity. These include slowing production growth (up just 1.5% year on year in July, compared with over 20% monthly in the first half of 2005) and rising exports (up 10% for the first 25 days of August, according to SGS), which should help ease pressure on stocks.
Palm oil is finding new markets in the US and the EU while demand from China and India should improve in the coming months ahead of the festive seasons. Perhaps more importantly is the growing demand for bio-fuel from Europe and soon, Malaysia, under the National Biofuel Policy introduced in August. Biofuel demand is being fuelled by record high crude oil prices.
Bellwether IOI Corp has fared well due to its downstream acquisitions that have made its earnings more resilient against commodity swings. However, the stock is also starting to look fairly priced and investors have also started to seek out smaller companies such as PPB Oil Palms. We like Kuala Lumpur Kepong, but there is also a much cheaper entry – via its parent Batu Kawan. While the former is well known, Batu Kawan is very much ignored by the market.
Assets undervalued
At RM6.00, Batu Kawan’s shares are trading well below its latest NTA of RM7.07, which itself is grossly understated. Batu Kawan’s main asset is a 46.3% stake in KL Kepong (as at March 2005), which accounts for 89% of NTA. Its other smaller businesses include industrial chemicals manufacturing, and freight and haulage, which are also profitable on their own.
For the first nine months of its September 2005 financial year-end, Batu Kawan's pre-tax profit rose 5.4% to RM161.1 million, of which RM139.2m came from associates (KL Kepong) and RM22 million from its own operations. Net profit came in at RM115.5 million, or 39.9 sen per share.
RNAV of RM9.07
Batu Kawan is grossly undervalued as the KL Kepong stake is carried in its books at well below market prices. At March 2005, the KL Kepong stake, estimated to total 330.18 million, has a book value of RM1.815 billion, or roughly RM5.50 per KL Kepong share.
The current share price of KL Kepong is RM7.25, or 32% higher. At market prices, that stake would be worth RM2.39 billion. The potential surplus of RM579 million is roughly RM2.00 per Batu Kawan share. Adding these surpluses in, we estimate Batu Kawan’s RNAV at RM9.07, some 51% higher than the current share price.
Putting it another way, Batu Kawan’s investors are effectively buying into KL Kepong for the equivalent of just RM4.56 per share – a 37% discount to market prices. This is the figure implied for the KL Kepong stake, derived after deducting Batu Kawan’s other core assets of RM228 million from its market capitalisation of RM1.7 billion. - InsiderAsia
http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_ed38db32-cb73c03a-c5577c00-ed62757c
[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 30-11-2008 02:11 PM 编辑 ] |
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