来看看Dr. Zeti对于欧洲债务危机对于亚洲国家的影响的看法

hauzi302

Asian Crisis Veteran Zeti Sees Region Surviving Dangers From U.S., Europe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/asian-crisis-veteran-zeti-sees-region-surviving-dangers-from-u-s-europe.html


Asia’s rising domestic demand and strengthened financial systems have made the region more resilient to global shocks even as slowing U.S. growth and the European debt crisis pose threats, Malaysia’s central bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.
Another global recession is unlikely and risks to growth probably won’t materialize, Zeti said in an interview in Jakarta late yesterday. The chance of an economic contraction is less in Asia, said Zeti, one of the region’s longest-serving governors who oversaw Malaysia’s monetary and currency responses to the Asian financial crisis more than a decade ago.
“Right now, yes, there are risks but we don’t envisage these risks to materialize,” Zeti said. “Many of us recognized after the 1990s how vulnerable we were, when we were so export- led. Many of us now have promoted domestic demand and this has become more significant. We have a better chance of dealing and managing those risks.”
Asia’s central banks have enacted the steepest increases in borrowing costs as the region led the global recovery from the 2009 recession, with China, India, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan raising rates in recent weeks. Still, Europe’s debt crisis and rising U.S. joblessness have threatened demand for exports from Asia and wiped more than $2 trillion off stocks worldwide since the beginning of May.
Malaysia’s central bank kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3 percent this month, after raising its benchmark four times since early March 2010. It cited “heightened uncertainties arising from global developments that have created higher downside risks to growth” and said it will assess carefully evolving economic conditions before deciding on further policy moves.  


‘Normalized’ Rates
“We have what we called normalized our rates and we normalized the rate to the level where it is now, where it is still supportive of growth,” Zeti said. “At 3 percent, it still remains quite low and there is still strong credit demand and this means that it isn’t an inhibiting factor to growth. We have to make that careful assessment because we also saw the first half of this year, growth had slowed.”
Zeti was assistant governor responsible for economics, reserves management, money market and foreign-exchange operations at Malaysia’s central bank when Thailand devalued the baht in July 1997, setting off a plunge in regional currencies. She became acting governor in September 1998 after then-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad ousted one of her predecessors, who disagreed with the premier’s plans to impose capital controls.
She continued to oversee Malaysia’s capital controls as deputy governor after a new chief was installed before taking the bank’s helm in May 2000. Among Asian economies tracked by Bloomberg, only Taiwan’s Perng Fai-Nan has been central bank governor longer.  


Europe Crisis
Euro-area leaders will meet in Brussels on July 21 to discuss the financial stability of the region, with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet reiterating opposition to any Greek debt restructuring. It will be the second summit in a month and follows the worsening of the crisis that last week pushed Italy to the attention of investors.
U.S. economic growth slowed to a 1.9 percent annual pace in the first quarter from 3.1 percent in the previous three months. Almost 14 million unemployed workers were available for the 3 million job openings in May, evidence of how weak the labor market remains two years after the recession ended, according to a Labor Department report and data compiled by Bloomberg. The jobless rate rose to 9.2 percent in June.


Asian Growth
The recovery in advanced economies is unlikely to be “strong,” Zeti said, adding that policy-making will be complicated by the need to tackle inflation while ensuring there is sufficient growth to create jobs. Every country should look at its own conditions, she said.
Asia still relies on U.S. and European demand for its goods, even as Group of 20 nations push to rebalance the world economy so that global growth depends more on domestic consumption. Asian economies accounted for 35 percent of world exports in 2009, compared with 25 percent a decade earlier, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Developing Asian economies will expand 8.4 percent this year, compared with 2.2 percent in advanced nations, according to IMF forecasts.
“Asia will continue to do better than the West,” said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Capital Economics Asia Pte in Singapore. “Even though China and India are navigating quite challenging policy maneuvers now, they will do it successfully and they will avoid a hard lending. That’s another key reason why we believe intra-regional demand will stay quite robust.”
Malaysia’s economy will probably expand 5 percent to 6 percent this year, with growth likely to be stronger in the second half as the impact of Japan’s natural disasters dissipates, Zeti said.
“We have to evaluate the conditions and going forward, we don’t want to have second-round effects that result in high inflation because that will erode purchasing power and that will eventually contribute to lower growth,” Zeti said. “It’s important to place priority on inflation because, unattended, it will result in damaging future growth prospects.”

noproblem

经济没有影响？我听说C字的本土银行已经停止聘请人员。。。

cari_lee

有summary 还是abstract 吗？太长了。。。

tanhy

真正的戏肉还没有到，这2年各国政府只是拼命印钞票来解决短期问题，对于解决高负债一点帮助都没有
等到印钞票也没用时，就是大萧条来临的时候
Zeti讲的这番话，只是针对这2年，没法预测将来