【专题讨论】外国股神逐個談之"Peter Lynch"

jackphang

Peter Lynch
****************

Peter Lynch一般上会选择的择股条件如下：

1。强劲的经济效应(A Strong Economic Franchise)
   - 低成长领域，高成长公司
   - 低竞争
   - 新手难于进入
   - 还有成长空间
   - 简单生意模式

2。物主管理模式
   - 良好员工与老板关系
   - 拥有多余现金于股东们
   - 管理层拥有/购入股票

3。财政巩固
   - 强劲的Balance Sheet
   - EPSG 和 RG 的持续性
   - 高Free Cash Flow

4。低价格
   - 低PE
   - 低Inventory Growth
   - 沉闷的生意(boring business)
   - 缺少分析师和基金经理的留意。
×××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 11-4-2008 04:14 PM 编辑 ]

CrazyCuteFish

呵呵，谢谢分享哦～～
很喜欢他的择股理论。。

jackphang

peter lynch 的方式不适合大众，主要原因是你必须深入了解有关公司的运作模式。如果你是财经记者/基金经理，那么你就能够比较容易接触公司管理层。

jackphang

1。强劲的经济效应(A Strong Economic Franchise)
   - 低成长领域，高成长公司
   - 低竞争
   - 新手难以进入
   - 还有成长空间
   - 简单生意模式

这里说的Franchise,指的是你是否能够在原料起价时，把压力转移给顾客/供应商，从而达到较高的利润率。

最好的例子就是手套业，能够把涨价成本转移给顾客，从而保持本身的利润率。

而低成长的领域出现高成长的公司，就比如早期的房地产(低迷期)出现了类似马星(高成长)的公司。

新手难以进入的领域，比如现在的超市、烟草类型的公司等等

jackphang

2。物主管理模式
   - 良好员工与老板关系
   - 拥有多余现金于股东们
   - 管理层拥有/购入股票

这里指的比较倾向与管理层方面，能够塑造一个亲员工的环境，留住人才，致力于提升本身公司的竞争能力。另一方面，若管理层拥有/购入股票，表示他愿意与股东们共进退。

jackphang

3。财政巩固
   - 强劲的Balance Sheet
   - EPSG 和 RG 的持续性
   - 高Free Cash Flow

拥有健康的财政报告，营业额及盈利能够持续不断上升，加上拥有充足的净现金流(Free Cash Flow)，而公司能够应该环境而决定应该增加投资还是回退股息给股东。

jackphang

4。低价格
   - 低PE
   - 低Inventory Growth
   - 沉闷的生意(boring business)
   - 缺少分析师和基金经理的留意。

这里指的低价格是说低PE,并且从冷门行业－e.g.:棺材业。而一般上大众对它的认知不多。那么，我们才能够以低价格购入该公司。

一般上低PE除了是因为低成长外，也有可能是因为大众对他不够了解。

[ 本帖最后由 jackphang 于 31-3-2007 04:13 PM 编辑 ]

hc.goh

原帖由 jackphang 于 31-3-2007 04:02 PM 发表
4。低价格
   - 低PE
   - 低Inventory Growth
   - 沉闷的生意(boring business)
   - 缺少分析师和基金经理的留意。

这里指的低价格是说低PE,并且从冷门行业－e.g.:棺材业。而一般上大众对它的认知不多 ...

which counter qualified ? 通 知 一 下 。

huang_su_lang

让我想起UCHITEC。。。。。。

业绩？好得很。期待管理人的新策略！！

不过它的股价可说是不动如山哟：）

维森特

我不太赞同第四点。。。

web

原帖由 hc.goh 于 31-3-2007 04:44 PM 发表



which counter qualified ? 通 知 一 下 。

KESM

hc.goh

原帖由 web 于 1-4-2007 06:08 PM 发表

KESM

KESM 有 以 上 的 择 股 条 件 ？

web

注：Peter Lynch 是洋人，所以他的语录用英文是应该被允许的。。。。嗬！？

The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game. And that's always been my philosophy.

The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.

I think you have to learn that there's a company behind every stock, and that there's only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.


In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten.

You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets.

When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom.

I've found that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won't get there by reading 'Now is the time to buy.'

Go for a business that any idiot can run - because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.

web

1.) Know What You Own - Most people don't really know the reasons why they own a stock - you should. Ed's Note: Similar to Ben Graham and Warren Buffet's Businesslike Investing in your Circle of Competence

2.) It is Futile to Predict the Economy, Interest Rates and the Stock Market(So Don't Waste Time Trying) - "If You Spend 13 minutes per year trying to predict the economy, you have wasted 10 minutes" Focus on the "facts" now at hand rather than predictions about the future

3.) You Have Plenty of Time - to identify and recognize exceptional companies. If you bought WalMart AFTER it rose 10x in its first 10 years, you got another 60x return over the next 30 years. Bottom line: Don't be in a rush - look at plenty of stocks, but be patient. Note: Buffett's "Wait for the Perfect Pitch"

4.) Avoid Long Shots - his record was ZERO out of 25 investing in companies with no revenues but a "bright future" to sell. His advice if you run across a company that falls into this category but still excites you - do nothing and write down the name. Look at it again in 6 to 12 months and see if you still think it is good. If it is one of the good ones and went from 5 to 15 while you waited, per point #3 above, you probably still have plenty of time. Note: Following this rule could keep you out of trouble. Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett talked about avoiding Speculations and focusing on Investments instead

5.) Good Management is Very Important and Buy Great Businesses - good management is very important - maybe even the most important consideration. It may also be the most difficult item on this list to get right. His advice: look for good companies because a good management in a bad business will probably fail. "Buy a business any fool can manage because eventually one will" Buffett has also observed that when a good management meets a bad business, it is the reputation of the business that generally prevails.

6.) Be Flexible - lots of unexpected things happen, some good and some bad. Many of his best nvestments happened for the "wrong" reasons, i.e. his original thesis was off, but the investment still worked out. Sometimes he was absolutely right about the growth but the investment was still lousy and he did not make any money. So be flexible and humble

7.) Knowing When to Sell is Hard - before you make a purchase, you should be able to explain why you are buying/own it in terms that an 11 year old could understand - three sentences at most. Remember this reason and sell the holding when the reason no longer continues to hold. Investing well does not take a genius - only need 5th grade math - so math has nothing to do with being a great investor

8.) There is Always Something to Worry About - and this makes things interesting. The 1950s were one of the best decades to own stocks, but from a geopolitical basis everyone was scared of nuclear war. In the early 1990s, everyone was scared about the Japanese taking over the world and beating America. Not coincidentally, more all-time worst market days occur on Mondays because people have the whole weekend to WORRY. His advice is to forget about all the global bad stuff because the key to good investing is not the brain/intellect, its having the stomach.

web

In addition to the above points, Peter also shared his Ten Most Dangerous Things People Say About Stock Prices reproduced below. Even more than the points above, Peter's good sense of humor came through when he discussed these old saws:

1.) "If it's gone down this much already, how much lower can it go?" (answer: Zero)

2.) "If it's gone this high already, how can it possibly go higher?" (some of the best companies grow for decades)

3.) "Eventually they always come back." (no they don't - there are lots of counterexamples)

4.) "It's only $3 a share, what can I lose?" ($3 for every share you buy)

5.) "It's always darkest before the dawn." (Its also always darkest before it goes absolutely pitch black. Don't buy a business just because price dropped and it is cheaper now)

6.) "When it rebounds to my cost, I'll sell." (The stock does not know you own it! Don't take it so personally Note: this comment is explained by the well documented psychological tendencies called loss aversion and anchoring bias which are talked about in Behavioral Finance. If you liked it at ten, you should love it at 6 so either buy more or sell)

7.) "What me worry? Conservative stocks don't fluctuate much." (There is no such thing as a conservative stock - the average stock fluctuates between 50% to 70% from its high to its low price every year. There is a graveyard where all the "conservative" stocks get buried. Companies and businesses change!)

8.) "Look at all the money I lost - I didn't buy it!" (Don't beat yourself up about the missed opportunities because it is not productive - when he managed the Magellan Fund, he almost never owned one of the 10 best performing stocks in a given year, but he did fine anyway).

9.) "I missed that one. I'll catch the next one." (Doesn't work that way)

10.) "The stock has gone up - so I must be right" or "The stock has done down - so I must be wrong." (Technical analysis is not worth much. So many people like something at 20 and hate it at 12 - never made much sense to him).

Peter's fundamentals, like those of many other super investors are grounded in common sense and an understanding of human misjudgments and failings. At the Ridgewood Group, we draw inspiration from outstanding investors like Peter who remind us that in investing our greatest challenges are often internal and psychological.

web

我很喜欢 Peter Lynch 的理论，特地放上来和大家一起分享。
不过是抄英文的，希望大家能够讨论一下。

8years

果然是精华中的精华。

limamok

谢谢你的分享，超赞。。。顶

Redleaf

说起 Peter Lynch ，
之前读过他的著作 One Up on Wall Street ，
其中提到他的选股十三点，
兹将之笔录如下：

1）It sounds dull - or, even better, ridiculous
好股票应该是和好公司如影随形，
而好公司通常从事简单的行业，
而简单的行业通常拥有沉闷的名字。
所以，
选股第一原则，
找公司名称听起来＂很沉闷＂，
甚至＂很滑稽＂的公司。

2）It does something dull
如果一间公司名称听起来＂很滑稽＂的公司，
是从事听起来＂很沉闷＂的行业，
那就更加妙。

3）It does something disagreeable
如果一间公司从事听起来不止＂很沉闷＂，
甚至＂有点莫明其妙＂的行业，
那就妙上加妙。

4）It's a spinoff
该公司是被分拆出来的公司。
通常母公司为了自己的颜面，
都会确保被分拆出来的子公司能够出人头地，
免得影响母公司的声誉，
所以被分拆出来的子公司通常业务强劲，
潜力不俗。

5）The institution don't own it, and the analysis don't follow it
还没有证卷行买入它的股票，
也还没有分析家追踪它的股票，
简单的说，
就是它的潜力还没有被发掘。

6）The rumors abound: it's involved with toxic waste and/or the mafia
如果该公司从事废料处理，
简直就是完美！

7）There's something depressing about it
公司被不利谣言困着。
用巴菲特的说法，
就是该公司被市场先生看衰。

8）It's a no-growth industry
该公司从事的行业是一个已经趋向成熟，
行业成长率低的市场。

9）It's got a niche
该公司在某方面拥有自己的，
而且谁也抢不掉的优势。

10）People have to keep buying it
该公司的产品是人们的必需品。

11）It's a user of technology
（这段我也不是很明白）
（所以解释不好）
该公司可以从下流产业大战中受惠。
比如说电脑市场的价格割喉战使电脑商家元气大伤，
但是由于价格不断下滑间接使电脑市场不断扩大，
电脑市场不断扩大的话对软件的需求量也扩大，
那么谁最受益？
（当然是独霸市场的 ***Microhard*** 啦）
所以与其投资电脑商，
到不如投资软件商。

12）The insiders are buyers
这段应该不用说明了啦。

13）The company is buying back shares
这段也应该不用说明了啦。

以上十三点只是帮助你从茫茫股海中选出适合的名单，
但这些只是初选，
还要深入研究被选出来的公司。
至于如何在过滤，
上面的贴子已经有登出，
此处不再重复。