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发表于 3-3-2026 07:06 PM
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Smetters, whose model is widely used in Washington, D.C., to analyze the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of federal policy, has Beltway policy chops including a stint as an economist at the Congressional Budget Office and as deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Treasury. He has advised Congress on dynamic scoring, and consults with policymakers from both parties on major tax and spending legislation. Smetters has described PWBM as a “sandbox” for legislators to workshop economic policy ideas.
The smallest number he gave to Fortune when asked about the cost of Epic Fury to taxpayers was $40 billion, for the smallest estimate of the direct budgetary cost, in a range that goes up to $95 billion. He said PWBM assumes more upside risk in the Epic Fury scenario, so a $65 billion direct hit to taxpayers is the likely cost for direct military operations as well as the replacement of equipment, munitions, and other supplies. “If the war lasts more than two months, then this number goes up,” he added.
On top of direct military expenditures, Smetters projected an additional economic loss to the United States alone of approximately $115 billion, with a wide band of uncertainty stretching from $50 billion all the way to $210 billion. “Again, [there’s] more uncertainty at the top end,” he noted, flagging that the upside risk is greater than the downside. That broader economic impact accounts for disruptions to trade, energy markets, and financial conditions that a sustained conflict in the Middle East typically triggers.
整场战争估计400-900亿美元，当然在同时，世界各国，主要是非产油国也是遇到经济损失。
不过既然你估计美国可以同时赚2千亿的话，那么基本上这个是划算的。
美国政府基本还是亏的，因为主要利益是由能源公司赚。但是呢，共和党基本盘就是石油企业和武器企业。
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