本帖最后由 cyberjaye 于 12-7-2015 05:48 PM 编辑
军事专家马哈林可以从有限的军费下推算出这5年我们得到的和得不到的，那些自赞 砖家就推算不出来了！
其中，新战机明显又被延迟了。这跟自赞 砖家推算的有很大出入。
另外，米格29的upgrade或复新也是没有消息。
我军得到的5
http://www.malaysiandefence.com/?p=2452
Five Things We Are Getting in RMK11Marhalim Abas July 11, 2015Malaysian Defence
SHAH ALAM: YES this post should be the continuance of the earlier post. However as this is a defence and national security site I cannot ran a doom and gloom posts twice in a row. That posting will be next week. Again, I am not claiming the items posted here are the definitive list. Far from it but I had always to try be as accurate as possible. I stand to be corrected of course. I may be accused of cheating by adding the LCS and Gempita but that is how the roll is dice. Five Things We Are Getting in RMK11 1) LCS
 A CGI of the RMN LCS.
As the LCS started late in RMK10, it is obvious that it will be carried over in RMK11. From my calculations, some RM4 billion have already been disbursed for the project.  An early model of the LCS.As the ceiling allocation for the project was reported to be RM9 billion expect the rest of the amount to be paid during the next five years or the five years after that (RMK12).  BNS/Gowind Frigate modelFurthermore, as the first ship is only expected to be delivered in 2019 and the rest in 10 months intervals, there is also the possibility that the allocation for the programme could be stretched out to RMK12 (2021-2026). This will be especially true if the programme is delayed due to various reasons. Lets hope it will not happen that way though! 2) Gempita (AV8) Like the LCS, the national 8X8 project started late in RMK10, and the first vehicles were only started to be delivered within the last eight months. That however did not stop the operational deployment of the 8X8, now officially known as the Gempita though it was originally envisaged that initial operational capability to be declared by early next year.  One of the first production model Gempita, fitted with the 25mm Bushmaster turret.12 of the Gempitas have now been deployed to Tawau since late January this year shortly after the vehicles were officially accepted into Army’s service.
I was told that the first unit to operate the Gempita, 19th RMR, will received its full allocation of vehicles by year end while the first vehicle equipped with the 30mm Denel turret is expected to delivered to its unit, an Armour regiment, any time now. In the meantime the variant fitted with the 30mm gun and ATGM turret is expected to be delivered by the fourth quarter.
Deftech, is expected to complete the delivery of the 257 Gempitas contracted within the next two years. Therefore like the LCS, funding for the project will be stretched out to RMK11
3) Light Scout Attack Helicopter Following the Lahad Datu 2013 incursion, talk was rife an imminent purchase of at least six attack helicopters was imminent. and the Airbus Helicopters Tiger was supposed to be the prime candidate.  Airbus Helicoper Tiger displayed at LIMA 2011.With a number of Army Air Wing’s pilots seconded to the French Army to fly on the Tigers everyone expected that a deal was foregone conclusion. However by early 2014 it appeared that the Defence Ministry had second thoughts about the Tigers and was looking instead at Bell Helicopters AH-1Z Super Cobra. As if to counter the reports on the Super Cobra it was reported that the Tiger deal had been firmed up by the middle of 2014 but this time around it was supposed to be a lease deal. However by Lima 2015, all the talk of the Army buying or leasing attack helicopters had died down.  The MD530G that was displayed at LIMA 2015. Note the weapons fit.Instead of the gnarly attack helicopter, the more sensible (and much more cheaper) light scout attack helicopter became the mantra. And at Lima 2015, an MD Helicopter MD530G Scout helicopter was displayed. It also conducted flight demonstrations to VVIPS and some members of the media.  Boeing AH-6IBoeing also brought its contender, another AH-6i albeit in a model form only. Both helicopters are derivatives of the Little Bird, the light scout attack helicopter which first saw service during the Vietnam war. Industry sources have confirmed to Malaysian Defence that the light scout attack helicopter will be funded during RMK11. They however could not confirmed the numbers. It has been reported before that the requirement was between eight and 24. I will put my money that 12 will be procured. 4) MPA  CN 235 MPA of TNI-AL displayed at LIMA 2015During his winding-up speech for RMK11 at Parliament on June 15, Defence Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein stated that among others, the Royal Malaysian Air Force will procuring MPA in phases. It was the only new asset for RMAF which he had stated during the speech. Industry sources have since informed Malaysian Defence that the 4 MPA will be procured. However there was no indication the type of MPA. I am assuming that the most likely candidate will be the CN-235 MPA that was displayed during LIMA 2015 by PT Dirgantra of Indonesia. The aircraft was fitted with the Thales AMASCOS.
 Thales AMASCOS workstation on board the CN235 MPA displayed at LIMA 2015.
According to Thales “AMASCOS combines a powerful tactical command subsystem with the latest-generation sensor suites to ensure the success of maritime patrol and surveillance missions from maritime surveillance (EEZ surveillance, fishing, shipping and drug interdiction), anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare, electronic intelligence (ELINT), joint littoral operations, search and rescue (SAR) and environmental monitoring”.  RMAF Beechcraft B200T MPAThe AMASCOS are already installed on the four Beechcraft B200T MPA operated by RMAF. Two more systems were recently procured and are in the process of installation. The aircraft however is fitted with Telephonics RDR-1700 radars instead of the Ocean Master which was fitted on the CN-235 MPA displayed at Lima 2015.  RMAF Beechcraft B200TA cheaper alternative will be the Beechcraft Super King Air 350 fitted with the same AMASCOS suite or the Saab MPA alternatives, the 2000 and the 340.
 A US Border Patrol Super King Air 350.
Over the top solutions for the MPA requirement will be the Boeing P-8 Poseidon and Japan’s new Kawasaki P-1 MPA (below).
 Kawasaki P-1 MPA. JSMDF
5) ASW Helicopter
 A CGI image of two AW159 Wildcat armed to the teeth
The project to equip the RMN with six ASW helicopters was supposed to be funded in RMK10. However it was deferred. Fortunately it has now been revealed that the project had been approved for RMK11.
 RSAF Sikorsky S-70B Seahawk helicopter. Note the drum for the dipping sonar
Three helicopters are expected to vie for the project, the AgustaWestland AW-159 Wildcat, the Sikorsky S-70 Seahawk and the Airbus Helicopter H225M Cougar.
 RMAF Airbus Helicopter H225M Cougar delivering SF soldiers during an exercise on the South China Sea in 2014. Joint Force picture.
If RMN were to based the helicopters on its three main surface combatants from the LCS, Lekiu, Jebat and the six Kedah class, the Wildcat will probably be chosen. If it was supposed to operate from the LCS only, the Cougar looks a strong bet.
More Deals for Deftech?
 Deftech AV6.
Apart from the five items above, industry sources said that there was a strong possibility that Deftech will also be given a contract for the manufacture the MRAP (derived from Thailand’s Chaiseri) and the AV6, most probably to replace the Condors operating in Lebanon by the Malaysian UNIFIL contingent.  Deftech MRAPSince I have yet to get further confirmation on these items I will just mentioned it in passing here. I will of course chase the leads after Hari Raya. — Malaysian Defence
我军得不到的8
http://www.malaysiandefence.com/?p=2427
SHAH ALAM: BEFORE we start, let me say that this is not the official RMK11 Dump list. Its just the Malaysian Defence’s Eight Things We Are NotGetting in RMK11. Why eight? Because eight is supposed to be a lucky number. Further more I am pretty sure the eight items listed here are not in the RMK11 list even though I have not gotten any official confirmation. Whether or not the items here will remained unfunded in RMK11 depends on other issues of course – mostly monetary and political considerations. As it is the principal author of RMK11 – Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak has come under tremendous pressure recently. The pressure had ratcheted up a notch over the weekend following the publication of claims that he pocketed billions of ringgit from 1MDB. And with the country’s ringgit coming under pressure following the crisis in Europe (apart from the low prices of oil and other commodities) one have to wonder whether there will be enough funds for RMK11 for the things that got approved. The blame for all of the troubles facing the country is of course according to the critics, lies with the PM. So much so that the word among the political circles are that big changes are scheduled to take place after Hari Raya or perhaps even sooner. Whether or not this will happened or whether the change will boost the country’s fortunes we will have to wait and see.  Typhoon and the moonBTW, please do not get confused and state that the list below are the things we are getting in RMK11. This is the things we are NOT getting in RMK11. 1) MRCA
It is obvious is’nt? Spending at least RM5 billion for a bunch of fighters is a huge political decision for any country. And the politician making decision must have some solid backing either politically or security wise. With our Defence Minister stating that the threats we faced currently and in the near future are bunch of guys from Mindanao and the IS, clearly there is no political will to fund the programme.
 A Rafale being tested for the F3R standard.
Despite the political put down, the MRCA remained a priority of the Armed Forces and the Royal Malaysian Air Force specifically. It is because of this there is persistent talk
about the possibility of a special allocation to fund the MRCA programme. I have heard about that before and I do not make much about it. If they didn’t think it is important enough for RMK10 or 11, why should they do it outside of it?  Boeing Super Hornet F/A-18F at Lima 2011For the record, RMAF has shortlisted four aircraft for the MRCA programme, the Boeing Super Hornet, Dassault Radfale, Eurofighter Typhoon and the Saab Gripen. All the candidates are the latest variant, the F Super Hornet, Rafale F35, Tranche 3 Typhoon and the Gripen NG.
 Gripen NG
It is unclear however whether funds will be available as a stop-gap measure either through leasing or the procurement and upgrade of second hand fighters. As I had mentioned previously, both the Typhoon and Gripen have offered the option as part of a lease and buy programme.  Two Kuwait AF F/A-18C seen here with a couple of F-16s. Internet.As for the possible procurement and upgrade plan, Kuwait is expected to sign on either the Typhoon or Super Hornet in the near future which will allow it retire around 40 legacy Hornets, single and dual seaters. These Hornets is expected to be available around 2018, however. And due to the current operations in Yemen, their flight hours are much higher than in the past. Will funds be reinstated if there is a change of leadership. Unlikely. 2) MIG29 Upgrade
With no upgrade funded, RMAF Fulcrum will just fade away. There will not be any celebration or farewell party however. The current political situation dictates it.  Fulcrums with ACMI podsWhen will the aircraft be retired then? As I had reported before (gone now) the RMAF will crossed the bridge once it gets there. The former RMAF chief had stated previously that the Fulcrums will retire by the end of 2015, which his successor declined to confirm nor deny whether they will abide by it. The Fulcrum upgrade however is the obvious choice for reinstatement in RMK11 if there is a change in the country’s top leadership in the near future (if it happens of course).
It will be very costly to upgrade the Fulcrum if the decision is made to continue flying them is made at the last moment, however. 3) Missile Corvettes Daewoo Shipbulding & Marine Engineering Ltd (DSME) created a lot of stir in late 2014 when it was reported that the company had got an order for six Missile Corvettes from the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN).  A model of the missile corvettes proposed by DSME for RMN.According to the report, three vessels will be built and assembled in South Korea starting from January 2018 while the rest will be block built in South Korea and assembled in Malaysia with DSME’s cooperation. I subsequently reported that DSME actually signed the deal with the local company, NMEL Sdn Bhd, which look very much like a successor to NGV Tech Sdn Bhd, the failed builder of RMN’s two training ships.  Another angle of the DSME missile corvette.In the same report I also stated that if the funding for the missile corvettes in RMK11 was secured, the deal was a foregone conclusion. I must state now that I was told that there is no funding for missile corvettes in RMK11. Apparently RMN has to cope with the current situation in South China Sea with its current fleet and the LCS. The only saving grace is that the SLEP for Jebat and Lekiuas well as the Laksamanas have been funded. Could the missile corvettes be re-instated if there is changes to the RMK11? Perhaps, I am pretty sure RMN will welcome it though. 4) MRSS The MRSS programme was supposed to be funded back in RMK10. Heck they even started – NGV Tech Sdn Bhd the preferred builder – building a shipyard in Bagan Datuk, Perak for the project. BUt the economic downturn around 2010 (yes we have many of those) put paid to that hopes. It was also the coup the grace for NGV Tech, which went belly up even before finishing up the two training ships for RMN.  A model of a Logistics Support Vessel from DSME.The MRSS was put up again for RMK11 considerations again this year, however it failed to be funded. I guess we have to wait for the LCS project to be completed before the MRSS programme will get any funds. Well what about the China made LPD which Malaysian Defence wrote about in April? As the project comes under a PFI scheme of course there is no need to list it in RMK11.  A graphic of a China made LPD displayed at LIMA 2015In fact, I believed the PFI proposal was one of the reason the MRSS programme failed to make the cut for RMK11. Anyhow, it appears that the RMN has little interest in any of the proposals involving China either ship building or systems sourcing. With the backers of the proposal coming from one side of the political divide, any changes to the leadership will severely dent such hopes. Furthermore with China’s stand on Gugusan Semarang Peninjau, any deal with the republic’s state owned arms manufacturers – cheap or not – will faced strong headwinds. TO be continued… — Malaysian Defence
待续。。。
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发表于 12-7-2015 05:45 PM
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