大马房价会像杜拜般崩盘吗？

u0508950

找不到华文的，贴上来让你们看看，有些观点我赞同，有些不赞同，主要分歧是价位和外资的参与度。

Is Malaysia’s property market headed for a Dubai-style crash?   Text Size
Published: Monday, 16 Sep 2013 | 7:10 PM ET


Tengku Bahar | AFP | Getty Images

Malaysia's office construction boom could lead to a Dubai-style property bust, CIMB warns, but other analysts expect a more muted correction.
Dubai's early story is similar to Malaysia's current ambitions, CIMB said, noting both had plans to build iconic "tallest" office towers and other commercial projects to lift industry standards and alleviate Grade-A office space shortages.
But CIMB noted, Dubai had a "one-up" given demand from Fortune 500 companies already located there and steady occupancy rates around 97 to 99 percent, compared with Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur's occupancy in the low to mid 80 percent range.
(Read more: Dubai real estate is hot again—maybe too hot: IMF)
After years of frenetic development, which included constructing the world's tallest building, Dubai suffered a massive real-estate crash in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, with property losing more than 50 percent of its value by 2011 as excessive speculation came home to roost. CIMB noted half-empty buildings continue to plague Dubai's skyline.
On the slate for the Kuala Lumpur area are the 118-story Warisan Merkeka Tower, targeted as the tallest building in Southeast Asia and part of a huge complex that will include two condominium blocks, a hotel tower and an underground subway station, as well as the 28-building Tun Razak Exchange project targeted as an international financial hub, CIMB noted.

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The report estimates around 17 million square feet of gross office floor area will come on-stream between 2015 and 2017, adding that even if demand doubles, it won't absorb the influx.
(Read more: Hong Kong's property developers locked in a price war)

It's not just about empty offices, CIMB said.
"Without the solid backing of fundamental demand, the overbuilding of commercial real estate could result in painful long-term issues, such as a magnified oversupply of office space, depressed rentals and yields, wastage of strategic land resources and knock-on effects on the financial sector as borrowers default on their loans and the industry's non-performing-loan ratio rises," it said, adding that if the government offers funding for the projects, any losses will pressure public debt.

But other analysts note that not all of Malaysia's office vacancies are created equal.

"A lot of the vacancies are found in buildings that are not built to a specification that a multinational tenant would want," said Alan Cheong, senior director at Savills Research in Singapore.
(Read more: Taper terror may leave Singapore property unscathed)
He noted tenants tend to leave buildings that are 10-15 years old as the maintenance isn't up to the standards seen in neighboring Singapore.
Overall, "grade-A vacancy rates are quite low," especially in centrally located buildings, he noted.

Cheong doesn't expect Malaysia to see an office-market crash as demand is likely to remain constant. "You'd have to scare the daylights out of the supply side," he said. "Even if it's down 10 percent, it's not a crash. It's just a reaction to greater supply."

(Watch now: Is Malaysia the next shoe to drop in emerging markets?)
Even the planned Warisan Merkeka Tower, which he calls a "hypothetical building," could act as "pump priming," as it may generate temporary office demand for the construction companies and material suppliers in Kuala Lumpur, Cheong said.

The government's plan to increase the population of the Kuala Lumpur area to 10 million from the current 6 million by 2020 will also spur greater property demand, he said . The population plan is contingent on more Malaysians moving into the Kuala Lumpur area and not on immigration, he noted.

—By CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter

@LeslieShaffer1

Andy66888

我雖然是哈佛大學畢業的，但是，我是主修中文，看不懂...........

david_cheong

Andy66888 发表于 18-9-2013 12:01 AM
我雖然是哈佛大學畢業的，但是，我是主修中文，看不懂...........

我是福建大学毕业的，主修“福建”

hahahaha

Ada_Yes

david_cheong 发表于 18-9-2013 12:26 AM
我是福建大学毕业的，主修“福建”

hahahaha

我还在社会大学混，主修＂社会学＂还没毕业。
哈哈哈.'

阿呆0327

哈哈哈哈～～～～～搞笑大学毕业的。。。
主修搞笑。。。

werino

我也刚买了一间产业，地点不错！风险管理准备好，不怕的！

六脉神剑

我虽然是牛津大学毕业的，但我主修日文，看不懂。

SenaT

我不看好高級公寓，國陣政府越來越狹窄和極端的土權政策觀念將來也許是嚇跑一眾尤其來自中國台灣新加坡的投資者原因之一，高級公寓只有靠中東抄家來支撐。
政府政策不僅影響外國投資者，買得起高級公寓的本地投資者也多具備移民條件能力，要跑路比任何人都快。

lim830

其實Dubai的房產多是靠其他國家投資，大馬最少本地投資者佔多數。
大馬房產近期外國買家以新加坡和中國臺灣比較多，中東的有一點。
因爲大馬華人喜歡有自己屋子，一間不夠，還要2間或更多。
還有買不起屋子的也要買屋子，最多是慢慢還。
不過，店屋和辦公樓就要小心，這些多數買來不是自己用，所以風險比較高。

tansks1737

懒惰看这么长。
杜拜小国搞这么多建设靠外国人来买当然有崩盘的可能。

ckkmy

剛看到一篇報導:"日本房地產景氣自1990年高點泡沫化後就一路走跌，6大都會區房價在15年內慘跌76%，很多日本年輕人因為看到父母住進「套」房的慘痛經驗，根本不敢買房，....."

那一天輪到馬來西亞?

bl4896

肯定会但不是今天或明天

bl4896

肯定会但不是今天或明天

天然夜行者

当上升到有钱人觉得overvalue时，就会崩盘...
举个例子，KL RM2500 psf

picasoho

日本的房产是高到离谱的地步然后崩溃的，那个时候的日本东京地区的房子不要讲一世人都还不完，而是要用三代人的名字都放进loan 里面，爷爷，爸爸，加第三代才接得到loan, 那种离谱不是现在全世界任何一个地方的房产价格可以比的。 dubai 明明就是个不毛之地，财富500的公司特地去那里开间office都是拿来充场面的，真的需要在那里开公司来赚钱吗？ 在自己的地方当然更好，更方便，更低成本。结果就一窝蜂去，一窝蜂离开，破坏力才那么恐怖。

马来西亚的high end 是的确很高了，欧美房市开始能赚钱的时候这类外资就会离开我们跑回去赚美金欧元，他们卖的也是 high end 房产，中价房产他们摸不到，也看不起。死的还是500k 以上的房产。我们这种小人物住的中价屋，卖价和成本的距离还没有很离谱，下不了。

missemma86

嘻嘻嘻嘻！！！
我在日本大学毕业的…
我主修…
…
…
人类交配学的
所以日本CD 销全世界

WooLeiDanDou

picasoho 发表于 18-9-2013 07:01 PM
日本的房产是高到离谱的地步然后崩溃的，那个时候的日本东京地区的房子不要讲一世人都还不完，而是要用三代 ...

也不是这样说，当一间独立式地屋跌到500k，那种apartment 和condo和地屋也会照跌来承托。

u0508950

picasoho 发表于 18-9-2013 07:01 PM
日本的房产是高到离谱的地步然后崩溃的，那个时候的日本东京地区的房子不要讲一世人都还不完，而是要用三代 ...

说说我自己的经历哦:

我去年年尾买了一间BU的房子, 那时买大概1百万, 头期给10%, 所有手续弄到来, 大概6 月才搞定, 7 月租了出去, 月供4 千多, 租金因为是有地屋, 才2100, 再加上维修费等等, 更加粗.
我3 个月内ADVANCE了大概2 年的供期来盖利息, 就是说现在一毛都不还, 我也可以顶两年.

租金不打算拿来花, 全部用来还贷款,自己再贴个新币800 就够盖供期了, 像我这样的投资者,应该不少.  

u0508950

SenaT 发表于 18-9-2013 09:04 AM
我不看好高級公寓，國陣政府越來越狹窄和極端的土權政策觀念將來也許是嚇跑一眾尤其來自中國台灣新加坡的投 ...

KL SENTRAL的公寓呢?

spirintel

u0508950 发表于 19-9-2013 01:07 AM
说说我自己的经历哦:

我去年年尾买了一间BU的房子, 那时买大概1百万, 头期给10%, 所有手续弄到来, 大概 ...

老大，BU是什么地方？这不像是你的style。。。租金很低啊！ 新山300多K的双层房子可以租RM1200. 而且还是在距离市区很远的mount austin。

回到你的问题。。。我觉得不会崩盘。因为看看论坛上的帖子可以发现还有很多人是不看好新山房地产的。
等到大家都看好它时，那就是要崩盘了。。