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讲完泡沫,给几个LINK大家知道投资大马产业风险!

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发表于 18-10-2012 11:21 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/malaysian-property-cheap-riddled-risks-043534839.html

还有请看第四楼的文章,也是很有见地的.

Singaporean Deepak Gurnani has spent the past couple of years trying to recover an investment gone wrong in Malaysia. The 51-year-old businessman spent $66,000 on a property in the popular beach destination Port Dickson, Malaysia in 1993. It functioned as a fuss-free home away from home until two years ago, when the developer defaulted on the payment of the property's maintenance fees.
"This resulted in Coco Bay Condominium's Management chasing us for recovery," says Gurnani, who now pays RM400 ($126) every quarter as maintenance and another RM150 for water, quit rent and property tax every quarter. All expenses considered, Gurnani has lost an estimated $150,000 and is expected to salvage only $30,000 of the holding cost, if he is lucky.
Gurnani is one of a rising number of Singaporeans who have been burnt investing in real estate in Malaysia. In a recently reported case, 129 disgruntled investors, which included some Singaporeans, of Nexus Residence - a luxury development in Sabah - took local developer Karambunai Corp into arbitration for not paying almost one year in arrears on its "lease back" rental payments due to them.
Faced with skyrocketing property prices in Singapore, property investors have turned to Malaysia's real estate for opportunities in recent years.
Singapore's property prices have surged to an all-time high in 2011, according to the Private Property Index compiled by Urban Redevelopment Authority, the local body that governs land planning. The average price of a luxury property in Singapore was valued around US$2,518 per sq. foot, according to the 2011 Wealth Report , published by property consultant Knightfrank. This makes properties in Malaysia approximately five to six times cheaper in comparison.
The rising value of the Singapore dollar, which currently exchanges for about 2.5 Malaysian ringgits, also means that Singaporeans get more bang for their buck. The Singapore dollar has risen almost three percent against Malaysia's currency since the start of the year.
"There has been an increase in Singaporeans investing in Malaysian property over the past 5 years due to high property prices in Singapore and the favorable exchange rate," says Khalil Adis, Singapore Editor for Property Report.
According to the Southeast Asia property website www.property-report.com , China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are said to be the biggest foreign investors in the Malaysian property market, with Singaporeans the biggest buyers in the state of Nusajaya, Johor, just across the border.
Government incentives also help explain a trend in the rising number of Singaporeans buying Malaysian property. According to Eric Chan, Deputy Managing Director of property developer Eastern & Oriental Berhad, the government's "Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) program" that grants foreigners easy entry via a renewable Social Visit Pass, with a multiple-entry visa that is valid for 10 years, has made Malaysian property attractive to Singapore investors.
"Added to this mix is Malaysia's friendly lending terms, which are also extended to foreigners and if conditions are met, margins of financing can be as high as 90 percent," Chan said.
Despite the incentives, risks remain for those property investors who do not carry out enough research before investing in Malaysian property, analysts say.
They add that a lack of transparency in the Malaysian real estate market is one of the key risks faced by foreign investors. According to the 2012 Global Real Estate Transparency Index, a proprietary Jones Lang LaSalle survey, Malaysia ranks 23rd on the index, ten spots lower than Singapore.
The index ranks countries in terms of the ease of comparison of occupancy costs, the ability to provide more options for strategic action (such as the execution of sale and leasebacks) and the efficiency of transactions.
News that the Malaysia government is contemplating raising the minimum property purchase price for foreign investors from RM500, 000 to RM1 million, in the lead up to elections next year, could also be a risk factor, analysts say. The move may win over voters, especially by young middle-class Malaysians who have been burdened by fast rising home prices, but could reduce the lure of Malaysia as a venue for affordable property market.
Location, Reputation Are Key
What seems to determine successful investment in Malaysian property as such largely revolves around the location and the credibility of the developer, experts say.
"A reputable developer and good location is the mantra in property investment and it is no different in Malaysia. Research therefore, is imperative in buying a property," Chan, said.
For projects where these criteria are met, it is not uncommon for purchasers to enjoy capital appreciation of close to 30 percent upon completion, he added.
Kuala Lumpur (KL), Penang and Iskandar, which is part of the southern state of Johor, rank among the top hot locations for investment in Malaysia for foreign investors.
Locations like Malacca, on the other hand, are likely to see very low returns on their investment. David Neubronner, Head of Residential Project Sales, of Jones Lang LaSalle told CNBC that "KL being the capital city and key business center would have a much wider appeal, more potential and possibly better returns on investments in the medium to long term."
On the other hand, Malacca is a historical town and appeals more to locals. "The type of options and opportunities are also more restrictive and I suspect much of the buying interest is hinged more on sentiments than investment," said Neubronner.
Local investors looking to invest in Malaysian property need to tread more carefully, says Gurnani.
He says that living in Singapore tends to give investors a false sense of security and makes them more prone to invest without thinking about the particular risks involved in overseas property markets.
"Malaysia is one place where I will never put money again," he said
本帖最后由 u0508950 于 20-10-2012 11:20 AM 编辑

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发表于 19-10-2012 01:19 AM | 显示全部楼层
这种翻译叫人怎么看
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发表于 19-10-2012 01:26 AM | 显示全部楼层
真的看不懂~~
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发表于 19-10-2012 01:46 AM | 显示全部楼层
Copy from cari news
防锁死煞车系统(ABS)真的能让驾驶更安全吗?我是一直这么认为的,直到最近我得知一项有趣的调查结果。
 麦尔肯葛莱威尔(Malcolm Gladwell)在他的著作《What the Dog Saw》,分享了多年前在德国进行的一项著名实验。这项实验把慕尼黑德士车队的一部分车子装上防锁死煞车系统,其余的车子则毫无任何装备,然后两组司机被秘密观察长达3年。

 许多人认为,车子装上防锁死煞车系统后能更安全驾驶,实验结果却证明是另一回事。

 对一些司机来说,防锁死煞车系统根本没有降低车祸率,反而使他们变成更危险的司机。因为他们的开车速度更快、转弯更急、驾驶纪律更差和更用力踩煞车器。

风险平衡理论

 作者以风险平衡理论(Risk Homeostasis)解释这个现象,即是在某些情况下,本来旨在让一个系统或组织更安全的改变,事实上却未必有此功效。

 人类基本上倾向以另一项风险来填补所降低的风险,所以在上述实验,使用安全措施的司机开车反而更快、更鲁莽。

 这个理论,在很大程度上能套用在我们的生活许多事项,我们固然可以采取额外预防措施,但仍应该正视和解决问题根源,才能达致预期效果。

 早前曾有建议把外国人购买国内房地产的底价从50万令吉提高到100万令吉,以抑制或控制房价窜升。

 这是其他“冷却”措施以外的建议,先前的措施,包括购买第三间房屋的贷款顶限设在70%、提高房地产盈利税(RPGT),以及房贷限额依据净收入而非毛收入的新条例。

 这些冷却措施无疑有助降低房产的购兴,但控制房产价格的预期目标有否达致仍有待观察。

 就像风险平衡理论解释的道理一样,若未严正确认房产价格日增的根本原因而贸然采取措施,反而可能创造未能利于整体市场的情况。

寻找问题根源

 那是什么因素影响房价走高?

 为了鉴定长期的解决方案,我们必须寻找问题的根源。目前房价走高,主要因为量化宽松政策(QE),即全球金融危机开始后,各国政府纷纷增加货币供应所带来的直接和间接影响。

 由于过多的金钱追捧有限的商品,价格必然水涨船高,价值却未必如此。事实上,我们面对著体系里金钱太多,导致货币实际价值走贬并推高物品和服务价格的情况,其中包括建筑材料。

 例如在2000年代初期至中期,满家乐的一间公寓售价约是50万令吉,现在却已要价80万令吉,涨幅达60%。

资金挹注造成货币贬值

 但若以另个“货币”计算,2000年代初期到中期的公寓价格等于8到10公斤黄金,如今却只值得5公斤黄金,跌幅介于38%到50%。这也是全球通货膨胀和资金挹注政策造成货币贬值,因而带动房价飙涨的例证。

 但若房价不能上涨,随著建筑成本高居不下,发展商不可能以低于成本建造房子,这将导致供应短缺,在未来5到10年进一步推高房价。

 让我们看看巴生谷未来的房产供需。

 就需求而言,政府放眼2020年之前大吉隆坡的人口从现在的600万人增加到1000万人,所以未来8年需要额外的100万个房屋单位(假设每个家庭有4位成员)。

 这意味著房产发展商每年需在大吉隆坡供应12万5000个新的房屋单位,以迎合预期增长的人口需求。

 根据国家房地产资讯中心(NAPIC)的统计,主要市场(primary market)在2011年于全国面市的全新房屋单位只有4万9290个,落在吉隆坡和雪兰莪的只有1万2705个。

煞车或适得其反

 这个供不应求的现象,在未来可能引致更严重后果。

 若政府持续推介更多的冷却措施以抑制或控制房价,并暂时遏止购屋者的购兴,这将减缓发展商建造新房屋的速度。抑制供应洐生的意料之外结果,是未来5到10年大吉隆坡将出现巨大的房屋泡沫,原因是供需严重失衡。

 文中一开始提及的防锁死煞车系统实验,给我们上了一堂宝贵的课。

 在采取任何行动前,了解长期可能出现的意外结果非常重要。若所实行的措施未能解决问题根源,取得的结果可能适得其反。

 因此,或许我们不应该在房屋需求的课题上“煞车”,反而应该扩大视野为房屋领域寻求更长期的解决方案。


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参与人数 1人气 +5 收起 理由
u0508950 + 5 给你加分了

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发表于 19-10-2012 01:49 AM | 显示全部楼层
帮我加分~加分~~谢谢
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 楼主| 发表于 19-10-2012 11:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
Yangyang1982 发表于 19-10-2012 01:49 AM
帮我加分~加分~~谢谢

这一帖也不错啊...为什么你不要开新的来讨论?
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发表于 19-10-2012 11:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
u0508950 发表于 19-10-2012 11:53 PM
这一帖也不错啊...为什么你不要开新的来讨论?

不用不用,跟隨您就好了
谢谢谢谢
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 楼主| 发表于 20-10-2012 12:01 AM | 显示全部楼层
Yangyang1982 发表于 19-10-2012 11:57 PM
不用不用,跟隨您就好了
谢谢谢谢

他们明天宣布最低薪是RM5千就好了,这样大家都可以买房了。
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发表于 20-10-2012 08:13 AM | 显示全部楼层
我想看原文,请问有原文吗?
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 楼主| 发表于 20-10-2012 08:45 AM | 显示全部楼层
4everyuanling 发表于 20-10-2012 08:13 AM
我想看原文,请问有原文吗?

文章上面有。

评分

参与人数 1人气 +3 收起 理由
4everyuanling + 3 谢谢分享

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 楼主| 发表于 20-10-2012 11:18 AM | 显示全部楼层
换了英文版的,因为太懒惰翻译了.
其实YANGYANG1982 分享那一篇比较好....大家记得去看,给他加分.
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