索羅斯：25年形成的「超級泡沫」正在幻滅

harimau

        索羅斯：25年形成的「超級泡沫」正在幻滅
              
              2008年6月24日
      
      
                    （紐約23日訊）華爾街日報報導，億萬富翁投資人索羅斯指出，他在書中曾三度大喊「狼來了」，預言經濟危機。他說，第三次，狼真的來了。

根據報導， 索羅斯在新書《金融市場的新典範》（The New Paradigm for FinancialMarkets）中指出，過去25年來形成的「超級泡沫」正在瓦解。

儘管索羅斯過去對全球經濟的看法是錯的，索羅斯指出，他仍能保有財富，是因為「我會知道我錯了，而且我不恐慌」。

他說：「我沉溺于興奮與絕望之中。我認為，我仍能倖存至今，是因為我知道我的錯誤。」
報導指出，索羅斯不認為目前房價下跌的情勢已經告終。

他說：「房價跌幅將擴大，超出當前市場預期，我認為市場不可能在今年底前走出衰退。」
      

              

harimau

如果 25 年的大牛过后有 12.5 年的大熊（取一半时间而已），那么.....

Mr.Business

大熊是是因为美国负债过多和baby boomer退休的关系？

悶蛋

原帖由 harimau 于 24-6-2008 12:20 PM 发表
如果 25 年的大牛过后有 12.5 年的大熊（取一半时间而已），那么.....

太调皮了，不像虎大

tan81

没有什么惊奇的看法。大家可以参考Robert Kiyosaki的危机大预言。

股友

先破坏，后建设。....

ljlq

原帖由 股友 于 24-6-2008 12:52 PM 发表
先破坏，后建设。....

发动第三次世界大战

綠葉島

索羅斯是炒家 , 不是經济学 , 看看就好 ......

蚂蚁小弟

Soros, the Man Who Cries Wolf,
Now Is Warning of a 'Superbubble'
By GREG IP
June 21, 2008; Page B1

He has cried wolf many times, but this time George Soros says the beast is really upon us.

Mr. Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management, is best-known as a speculator, philanthropist and political activist. He made a fortune by doing things such as betting against Britain's currency in 1992 and Thailand's in 1997.


Lou Beach; Getty Images  
George Soros admits his warnings haven't always panned out.
A Hungarian refugee, he has spent millions to promote democracy and learning in post-Soviet nations. He also has spent heavily to promote liberal causes and has been an ardent critic of President Bush.

But Mr. Soros, 77 years old, wants to be remembered most as a philosopher. Since he was a student in 1952, he has been promoting his economic theory, which he calls "reflexivity."

In essence, he argues that markets don't simply reflect fundamental determinants but can change those determinants in a way that causes asset prices to go to extremes. In his latest book, "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets," he argues a "superbubble" has developed in the past 25 years and it is now collapsing.

Mr. Soros's predictions in his books have fallen far short of his track record as a hedge-fund operator. In 1987 he wrote that the world had to ditch the dollar in favor of a new international currency system or risk "financial turmoil, beggar-thy-neighbor policies leading to world-wide depression and perhaps even war." His 1998 book said, "The global capitalist system ... is coming apart at the seams."

In recent interviews in Washington and New York, The Wall Street Journal asked him about his forecast, why he succeeds financially when his world view has been wrong, and his aspirations to be a philosopher. Excerpts:

WSJ: You've said this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Yet at its worst, the stock market was only down 18%. That doesn't seem Depression-like. Is this as bad as it gets?

Mr. Soros: I think that the decline in housing prices is going to be more precipitous and go further than people currently expect. To expect [to come] out of the recession by the end of the year, I find that inconceivable.


WSJ's Greg Ip reviews George Soros' newest book, "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets," which reasserts his thesis on the fall of a 25-year super-bubble economy. (June 20)
But I can envisage a very broad range of scenarios. One would be a very prolonged world-wide recession. I cannot imagine a replay of the '30s. But you can have a muddle-through replay of the Japanese scenario, 10 years of stagnation.

The employment figures are still very, very satisfactory. Part of this is due to the impact of the lower dollar in stimulating exports and partly to the very strong position of the corporate sector. The economy turned out to be structurally in very good shape.

WSJ: You argue that the crises we've experienced in the past 25 years have been, in retrospect, "testing events" that convince us the system is stable, encourage us to take even bigger risks, leading to one, cataclysmic collapse. Could this be just another testing event?

Mr. Soros: Each time the authorities saved us, that reinforced the belief that markets are self-correcting. Each time when you bail out the economy, you need to find a new motor, a new source of credit and a new instrument that allows for the credit expansion. [It's] difficult to imagine what you can do when you are already lending effectively 100% on inflated house prices.

I have a record of crying wolf at these times. I did it first in "The Alchemy of Finance" [in 1987], then in "The Crisis of Global Capitalism" [in 1998] and now in this book. So it's three books predicting disaster. [After] the boy cried wolf three times ... the wolf really came. If we can sail through this without a recession, then the superbubble story is seriously impacted ... I [will] have cried wolf again. Unfortunately, if you go into a recession, [it is not] proof of reflexivity, or vice versa.

WSJ: How is that you are rich despite your world view having been wrong so far?

Mr. Soros: I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong.

WSJ: How do you stay levelheaded in the middle of a bubble?

Mr. Soros: I don't. I panic. The same thing applies to me as to everybody else, so I'm given to euphoria and despair. And I would say that I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. I very often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are wrong you have to fight or [take] flight. When [I] make the decision, the backache goes away. I don't always make the right decision. I sometimes cut my losses when I shouldn't.

WSJ: Is reflexivity really behind your success, or are you just a good trader?

Mr. Soros: My performance currently is not that good, but taking the longer [view] it is kind of outstanding. There are two possible explanations. One is the theory [of reflexivity] and the other is the backache. And I think it's really the combination of both because recognizing reflexivity drives you to this constant re-examination.

WSJ: Would you prefer to be remembered as a philosopher than as a successful speculator or philanthropist?

Mr. Soros: Much more. You know, people have hang-ups and that's my hang-up. The most popular reaction to my philosophy is ... success has gone to his head and he wants to be more than what he is. That's obviously a very plausible theory. Certainly being a successful fund manager gave me a platform. But I would like the ideas to be judged on their own merit.

I think I'm on the verge. For the first time, this book [his 10th] is a best seller. I was asked to testify [before the Senate Commerce Committee] because a staff member read the book.

WSJ: Are you getting recognition from heavyweights in academia or policy making?

Mr. Soros: It has certainly not penetrated academia, and not policy makers either. There was an article in The Wall Street Journal about people doing research on bubbles at Princeton, so I'm going to meet with one of them. I wish I could engage in a discussion with [the Federal Reserve]. I'm waiting for a phone call. I'm [meeting with] Alan Greenspan.

WSJ: But you are quite critical of Greenspan.

Mr. Soros: Greenspan is one of the great manipulators of financial markets. I mean it in a good way. He managed [in 2001] to forestall a more serious recession. He kept interest rates [low] too long. And he did not heed the warnings that lending standards were being lowered, that deceptive practices were being used. He was too much of a market fundamentalist. He believed that if you leave it to markets, everything will be all right. That's initially self-reinforcing, but eventually self-defeating.

WSJ: Greenspan argues that the benefits of innovation are worth the occasional bubble.

Mr. Soros: This is, of course, [Joseph] Schumpeter's creative destruction idea. However ... going overboard in generating change is not necessarily a good thing. Financial innovation may not be an unmixed blessing because it really prevents proper regulation.

If you look at the 19th century, you had creative destruction going on, one financial crisis after another. But each time you had a crisis, you had an examination of what went wrong, and you put in some instrument or some institution to prevent it from happening.

I'm not advocating ... central planning because that's worse than markets. But the regulators need to learn from the mistakes that they have made. I think it's pretty clear that you've got to accept responsibility for moderating asset bubbles. ... That involves regulating credit as well as [interest rates].

秋明最速

众所周知，索罗斯是个炒作手法利落的操盘手。
但若从他的自传中便可以看出，他不仅是个操盘手。他更是个卓越的金融学家，经济学家和大慈善家。
但对很多国家的文化保留及国家革命都捐献过庞大的资金。
若你留意他的生平的话，你应该可以发觉。让他成为巨富的不只是炒作，更值得学习是他的眼光和智慧

还有，马哈蒂当年评击他的事件在我看来像是推卸责任，找不到人下台拿他来愚民。泡沫始终会破灭，在索洛斯买入泰国货币之前泡沫早已成熟。。。

至于这次的预测，我还没了解情况。去找下资料先

goodluck88

soros喊泡沫....这样他才有机会拾便宜货嘛....

hc.goh

一年前，我从未想过我需要对次级借贷这个行业写上点什么。我知道这个行业不太妥当，但是，次贷危机在2007年的现实演绎似乎还是超出了人们的想象。次级借贷业务停顿中止，坏消息一日更甚一日。房屋滞售，价格跌落，信贷紧缩。而且我相信，这些问题的真实情况仍然不为人知。留予大众的只是揣测和猜想：这场危机究竟会发展到何种严重的程度。

goodluck88

原帖由 hc.goh 于 25-6-2008 12:36 AM 发表
一年前，我从未想过我需要对次级借贷这个行业写上点什么。我知道这个行业不太妥当，但是，次贷危机在2007年的现实演绎似乎还是超出了人们的想象。次级借贷业务停顿中止，坏消息一日更甚一日。房屋滞售，价格跌落，信 ...

没有人愿意想象其严重的程度.....

东风不破

看来这次次贷风暴加原产品泡沫比上一次互联网泡沫更强。

东风不破

现在才发觉索羅斯真的很厉害，预言真的实现了。
超級泡沫正在幻灭，这次真的死别够力。

东风不破

原帖由 harimau 于 24-6-2008 12:20 PM 发表
如果 25 年的大牛过后有 12.5 年的大熊（取一半时间而已），那么.....

建立一栋楼须要几年的时间，可是毁掉它只须秒钟。
我看不用25个月就完蛋了，要是经济低迷12.5年，那会是非常恐怖的事情。
所谓穷人最凶，到时什么事情都会发生。

hc.goh

等待股市反弹,必须要等到信仰牛市的人彻底绝望.
现在太多人抱有希望,证明股市没有见底.(市场游指充足)

stanleymyc

cari 很多人在喊熊，越跌越开心，你的指标不适合在这里用

ZeroYap

原帖由 stanleymyc 于 11-11-2008 11:27 PM 发表
cari 很多人在喊熊，越跌越开心，你的指标不适合在这里用

哈哈哈哈

100cent

诺奖得主蒙代尔称大面积恐慌很快会结束http://www.sina.com.cn  2008年11月12日 07:24  大洋网-广州日报


　　 当次债风波爆发时，几乎没有人会料到在其后短短的一年时间里会恶变成历史性、世界性金融风暴，全球经济损失总共高达37万亿美元,发达国家的经济更因此陷入了衰退。

　　继今年1月本报赴美直击报道次贷风暴后，10月，我们再赴风暴眼——美国纽约等地，探求金融风暴将如何演变及其向实体经济的传导状况，并为此采访了诺贝尔经济学奖获得者蒙代尔、摩根大通全球首席经济学家卡斯曼、标准普尔首席经济学家韦兹、房利美公司首席经济学家邓肯等多位全球著名的金融界人士。

　　金融风暴还能有哪些解决方案？未来美国经济何时复苏？从今天起，记者将予连续报道。

　　2008年10月金融风暴恶化为一场经济衰退的危机，投资者何去何从？

　　美国财政部中美战略经济对话事务特使艾伦·霍尔默、纽约州银行局局长理查德·内曼、国际货币基金组织亚太局副局长斯蒂文·唐纳维、美国房地产大王特朗普、诺贝尔经济学奖获得者蒙代尔、摩根大通全球首席经济学家卡斯曼、最大的评级机构标准普尔的首席经济学家戴维·韦兹、房利美公司的首席经济学家邓肯等多位全球著名的金融界人士近日都接受了本报记者的采访。

　　虽然大家观点各有不同，但他们基本一致认为只要全球政府政策高度协调，世界性的金融危机在明年底就基本结束，市场就会得到复苏。

　　不管能否还得起贷款，只要是美国人，就一定会有金融机构向你提供房贷、信用卡、车贷等现金。这正是扣动当今金融风暴的扳机，房贷中的次债问题就是冰山中的那一角。当世人知道了这个真相后，金融机构几乎全部改邪归正。

　　随着各国政府陆续推出积极的救市措施，市场信心得到稳固，银行之间开始再次相信彼此的还钱能力，相互借贷的意愿加大。

　　国际市场上银行间彼此借贷的利率已降至2004年6月以来的最低水准,而较长期的拆借利率继续走低。而10月29日的三个月期的拆借率已降至3.47%，比一年前下降了近30%。

　　摩根大通全球首席经济学家卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)就表示：“前一段，人们都追逐短期的国债，使得三个月期的国债利率近乎于零。我们的推测是政府所采取的行动将会令金融市场的紧张情绪得以缓解，而三个月的国债利率将会显著提高。”

　　相信金融危机已接近底部的经济学家们越来越多。

　　蒙代尔：大面积恐慌将结束

　　诺贝尔经济学奖获得者蒙代尔在接受本报记者采访时表示，这次全球金融危机的主要部分将在两周左右就可结束，虽然在未来两三年里，问题还会不断地出现，但是就系统性的问题，大面积的恐慌很快就会结束。

　　“个别银行可能会倒闭的可能性依然存在，但整个金融体系将进入康复期。”年迈的蒙代尔微笑着说。