【专题讨论】好书分享：<Common Stock & Uncommon Profit>

invest_klse

有关作者简介，请看：http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Arthur_Fisher

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 26-2-2008 01:42 PM 编辑 ]

invest_klse

本书的dedication有够特别的：

泡沫蓝

原帖由 invest_klse 于 26-2-2008 11:55 AM 发表
本书的dedication有够特别的：

酱也可以？？？？

8years

其实我也懂皮毛，期待你的分享，然后大家可以一起讨论。

invest_klse

现在的这个版本，其实是由三本 Fisher 的书组成的。
１。common stock & uncommon profits
２。conservative investors sleep well
３。developing an investment phylosophy

巴菲特说，他自己是85％的Graham加15％的Fisher。
因此，这是一本巴菲特迷们不容错过的好书。

invest_klse

目前，我本身还没读完本书。

几个月前，我download了一个华文版的ebook，但读到一半就读不下去了。
两个星期前，在 MPH 买了此书，读起来的感觉就好多了。
（我还是比喜欢抱着一本真实的书 ）


希望有读过此书的人，先分享、交流一下他们的读后感。

8years

期待你的分享，最好有翻译，我们都是鸡肠白痴。。。。

goodluck88

原帖由 8years 于 26-2-2008 12:40 PM 发表
期待你的分享，最好有翻译，我们都是鸡肠白痴。。。。

Common stocks and uncommon profits 华语版~~~“怎样选择成长股"。。。。我自己上传的。。。不怕link 失效。。。

http://www.mediafire.com/?0nzpt32nnmj

huatchai07

我读的是「三十六計」《南齊書·王敬則傳》

敬則曰：『檀公三十六策，走是上計。汝父子唯應急走耳。』」

巴费特可能也有一本吧

huatchai07

孫子：「善用兵者避其銳氣擊其惰歸」--毛澤東：「敵來我走，敵駐我擾，敵退我追」。

huatchai07

敵來我走，敵駐我擾，敵退我追

外资來我走，外资駐我擾，外资退我追，外资又來我走， 外资又駐我擾，外资又退我追，没完没了。。。

chengyk

孙子兵法看股市 !!! 高 !!!

问题是怎样知道外资的动向 ???

piao2

如果要学习如何管理公司，这本书不容错过。
至于买卖该公司的股份，如果不了解该公司的生意模式，别去碰它。
看看前面序言他孩子写他的内容，感触良多。

四伯爽

读这本书有点难度
并不是难在它有什么深涩的投资理论

难在...作者很喜欢把一个句子写到长长...有点晕

huatchai07

怎样知道外资的动向？？？ 也高！！！

坦白说，我也不知道。

看报道，就慢几步啦。而且，报道都是靠猜的。

如果还有下次，一看到报道说外资进场，三十六策，走为上計！！！

Mr.Business

1000%同意你的看法！！

Mr.Business

资料。

Thursday February 28, 2008

Lessons from Warren Buffett’s guru

Personal Investing: By OOI KOK HWA

Phillip Fisher says he doesn't want a lot of good investments but a few good outstanding ones.

Q: What can we learn from Philip Fisher?  

Philip A. Fisher, one of Warren Buffett’s investment gurus, is known for his philosophy on the qualitative aspects of selecting a good company for investment. Buffett learned qualitative analysis from him.  

Fisher got his early education at Stanford Business School. He joined an independent San Francisco bank as a securities analyst in 1928, and founded Fisher & Co, an investment counselling business, in 1931.  

According to his book entitled Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, one of the most important investment philosophies from Fisher is Scuttlebutt, which he also calls “the business grapevine”, in investing.  

Scuttlebutt is the use of the business grapevine to analyse a company. We can obtain the information from customers, employees, suppliers, academics, trade association officers, industry observers, etc. This information is crucial in determining the character of its managers and the potential of the company.  

A good company should exhibit unquestionable management integrity, own highly competitive products, be in a healthy financial position, have good cost control and be effective in its research programme.

According to Fisher, even though it is hard to know quality of management, a good management team should possess the ability to carry out day-to-day tasks efficiently and have good long-term planning. The management should also have high integrity and maintain good labour, personal and executive relations.

Fisher is a believer of growth investing. We need to select stocks that have great potential to grow their businesses. It will be a waste of time to hold on to stocks that have no growth potential. He believes that we can get capital gains by buying into these companies as their stock prices would go up in line with the increase in their intrinsic value.

It requires extensive research before you can get one. Fisher said: “I don’t want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.” These companies can be bought at high historic price earnings ratio (PER) because there is a possibility that their stock price is reflecting good news you don’t know about yet.

The growth companies should demonstrate strong and well-directed research capabilities. These companies should also exhibit an above-average sales organisation. Besides, they need to have a sustainable profit margin and good return on capital. Normally, these companies are the market leaders in the industry and have the advantages of scale.  

A consistent and predictable dividend policy will provide the minimum returns to investors. Although high dividends are good for investors, to maintain business growth, high growth companies need to retain a certain level of profits for future expansion.  

If a company is paying dividends with little retained earnings, it will cause lower reinvestment, which will affect its long-term growth. As mentioned earlier, the main returns to an investor is capital gain. He believes that buying into high growth companies will provide the capital gain.

When to sell

Fisher believes in long-term investment. According to him, the most important thing is to select the right stocks. “If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never,” he said. However, if we select the wrong stocks, we need to sell.  

We need to admit that we have made mistakes in our calculation. This attitude is important as not many retailers have the courage to admit their mistakes. Furthermore, we should not expect to be right all the time. We should be aware that we can make mistakes and we will make mistakes in our analysis, but more importantly, we need to learn from our mistakes.  

Fisher said: “The chief difference between a fool and a wise man is that the wise man learns from his mistakes, while the fool never does.”

Fisher will only call a sell on a stock when the company or industry has changed and the stock no longer qualifies as a growth stock or a better prospect is available elsewhere. He will not sell a stock just because a stock appears to be selling for a significantly above average PER or because the stock price has increased.  

He believes that most investors always make mistakes by selling their stocks with the hope of buying them back at lower prices. In most instances, the investors miss the stock when it recovers.

# Ooi Kok Hwa is a licensed investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.  

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 80&sec=business

invest_klse

大约两个月前，我读完了这本书。但一直没有时间把感想写出来。

今天开始，我会比较有空了，会慢慢一点一点的写些感想。

invest_klse

这本书的主要目的，是希望教导读者如何选出值得长期持有的成长股。

Fisher 认为，值得长期持有的，必须是能够长期保持成长的公司。
到底什么样的公司，才能够保持连续几十年的高成长呢？

在这本书中，Fisher 列出了 15 个检验标准：
（若有翻译不当之处，欢迎纠正。）

• 这家公司的产品或服务有没有足够的市场潜能，至少几年内营业额能否取得大幅的增长？
• 为了在现在的产品增长潜能放缓时，能够进一步使公司的营业额保持增长，管理层是不是有决心去持续的开发新产品或新工艺？
• 以公司的规模来看，它的研发部门（R&D）的效率如何？
• 公司的高人一等的营销组织(sales organization) ？
• 公司的的赚幅（profit margin）高不高？
• 公司做了什么事，以维持或改善其赚幅？
• 公司的劳资和人事关系 (labour & personnel relations) 是否维持得很好？
• 公司的行政人员关系 (executive relations) 是否维持得很好？
• 公司管理层的深度够吗？
• 公司的成本分析与会计管理做的如何？
• 在其行业中，公司有什么独到之处，可以为投资者提供线索，以了解此公司相对于其竞争者，有什么突出？
• 公司对于其本身的盈利展望是短期的，还是长期的？
• 在公司的成长中，会不会涉及大量的发股融资（equity fincancing），而冲淡了现有股东的权益？
• 管理层是不是只向投资者们报喜不报忧（在公司运作良好时畅所欲言，面对问题时三缄其口）？
• 管理层是否拥有毋庸置疑的诚信？

英文原文：

Fifteen points tolook for in a common stock

1. Does the company have products or services withsufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for atleast several years?

2. Does the management have a determination tocontinue to develop products or processes that will still further increasetotal sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractiveproduct lines have largely been exploited?

3. How effective are the company’s research anddevelopment efforts in relation to its size?

4. Does the company have an above-average salesorganization?

5. Does the company have a worthwhile profitmargin?

6. What is the company doing to maintain or improveprofit margins?

7. Does the company have outstanding labor andpersonnel relations?

8. Does the company have outstanding executiverelations?

9. Does the company have depth to its management?

10. How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting control?

11. Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industryinvolved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstandingthe company may be in relation to its competition?

12. Does the company have a short-rage or long-range outlook in regard to profits?

13. In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require sufficient equityfinancing to that the larger number of shares then outstanding will largelycancel the existing stockholders’ benefit from this anticipated growth?

14. Does the management talk freely to investors about it affairs when things are goingwell but “clam up” when troubles and disappointments occur?

15. Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity?

[ 本帖最后由 invest_klse 于 10-8-2008 11:50 AM 编辑 ]

invest_klse

与 Graham 成为非常强烈的对比，Fisher 考量一家公司制不值得投资时，主要着重于“人”的因素，而不是财务报告里的数字。他列出的 15 个检验标准中，除了profit margin 可以从财务报告中得知之外，其它的都必须通过各种管道来考察。

读完了这本书，我的第一个感觉是，非常佩服 Fisher， 他竟然有办法对一家公司的这么多方面取得了解，实在不容易。我发觉，我以前对于长期投资的选股，实在是太浅了。

另一个感觉，是觉得我自己不太可能在短期内学会 fisher 的选股方法。

因为，对于一家公司，要取得对上述 15 points 的了解，真的很不容易。而 Fisher 的做法，是“闲聊”。他找公司的职员聊，找公司的顾客聊，找公司的供应商聊，收集了足够得上资讯后，再找公司的管理层聊。我觉得，他的这种“聊天”考察法，是一种艺术，也跟个人的性格有关。我本身就不是一个很会说话的人，要学这“闲聊”技巧不容易。更重要的是，要懂得在聊天的过程中，对人作出正确的判断，这真的是很高的艺术。


读完了这本书， 考量了本身的能力，我更加肯定的让自己的投资策略，暂时偏向 graham 的资产价值选股法。


当然，我不想放弃 Fisher 的长期成长股。因为，我觉得掌握了 Fisher 的选股策略，才能够真正取得财务自由。
根据 Graham 的方法，需要不断的寻找被低估的股，并分散投资；等价值回升后，就得卖出，再寻找别的对象。这是一个永不停止的过程。而 Fisher 的方法呢，只要找到几家值得长期持有的公司，把钱投入后，就可以几十年高枕无忧了。（每年只需花一点点时间来 monitor ， 检查看公司基本面有没有变化）。我觉得，以后如果我要取得真正自由、高品质的退休生活，Fisher 的投资法显然更胜一筹。（虽然，Fisher 的方法比 Graham 的回酬率低一点点；但只少赚那一点点差别就可以换取许多时间，我觉得是非常值得的。）

所以，我还会继续学习如何选择成长股。如果过多几年（或是十几年？），我对于如何选择成长股累积了足够得的信心，我会再次偏向 Fisher 的。