【bryon 个人专区】宏观，微观，经济，股市

蚂蚁小弟

你的看法更特别
尤其是Gelang那段
嘿嘿

K男

原帖由 bryon 于 11-7-2008 11:45 AM 发表
引领区域不敢说，有段前所未有的高点很大机会，问题是，如果发生的时候
肯定又来convertible bond/notes blah blah把盈利转到母公司/老板的口袋
这点已经在resorts world->genting被证实
现在买云顶国际是一场赌注 ...

说的也是。。。继续追踪相关其他资讯－－我所至有限

bryon

原帖由 K男 于 11-7-2008 16:12 发表

说的也是。。。继续追踪相关其他资讯－－我所至有限

2008年7月28日the business times的头条
Singapore F1 a boon for hotels - in Johor

1xxx年,california gold rush,发大财的不是挖金的，而是卖牛仔裤的
我看到的是2009/2010年n月n日
Singapore Casino  a boon for ??? - in ??

Singapore’s first Formula One (F1) night race (September 26-28 ) is turning out to be quite the moneyspinner for hotels and travel agents - in Malaysia, that is.

Some visitors who are flying in for the big event have found an alternative to the inflated room rates at Singapore hotels, by booking five-star hotels across the Causeway where prices work out to a mere fraction of what is being charged here.

Johor Baru-based travel agency, New Asia Holidays, has been receiving calls from interested parties as far away as Europe since February this year. The travel agency has organised a special four day-three night F1 travel package, complete with daily return transfers between Johor Baru and the race circuit in Singapore.

Starting at $800 per person, the tour package boasts the option of both high-end hotels like the five-star Hyatt Regency Johor Baru as well as more affordable accommodation and even sightseeing tours.

According to general manager Raaj Navaratnaa, ‘response has been very good’, with 350 confirmations to date, although he expects numbers to run into 550-600 once September rolls in. Slightly over 60 per cent of the confirmed bookings so far hail from European countries and regions such as Germany and Scandinavia, while close to 30 per cent are from Australia. Bookings from the region such as Malaysia and Thailand have been softer, he added.

To avoid heavy traffic, New Asia Holidays has chartered private buses and will be ferrying its customers via the Tuas link. It is also working on obtaining special group ‘clearance from Malaysian Immigration,’ said Mr Navaratnaa, which he believes will come through.

Meanwhile, over at the five-star Puteri Pacific JB, bookings have started to come in recently from both individuals and groups. Rooms are going at RM500++ (S$209) per night, with a minimum of three nights, which is still vastly cheaper than the rates charged by some of the local hotels. At this point, the Puteri Pan Pacific has 300 rooms taken up - an occupancy rate of about 60 per cent.

The Hyatt Regency JB is offering a four day-three night package at a rate starting from RM395++ per night, excluding transportation. General manager Richard Simmons said the hotel is ‘optimistic’ for higher than average occupancies, especially taking into account that generally, ‘the rate falls during Ramadhan.’

The Mutiara Johor Baru currently has a take up of 72 rooms for the F1 period. Fifty-two of its superior rooms (RM270++ per night) and 20 deluxe rooms (RM310++ per night) have been paid for so far. According to the hotel, all bookings are made by Malaysians. ‘Majority of rooms are booked for a duration of four nights stay from 25 Sept onwards. Walk-in guests will pay the same rate,’ said Lily Tham, marcom manager, adding that enquiries have been pouring in since early April.

While the current occupancy level for that weekend hovers above 20 per cent, the Mutiara is forecasting 80 per cent daily occupancy from F1 bookings alone from Sept 22 till 28. Mutiara JB has 332 rooms and suites in total.

However, Patrick Fiat, general manager for Singapore’s Royal Plaza on Scotts, pointed out that staying in JB during the F1 week would also come with a heavy price to pay. You have to ‘factor in traffic jams and the distance…plus service standards’ might not be up to snuff, Mr Fiat said.

Royal Plaza on Scotts, which is a non-trackside hotel, currently has an occupancy of about 55 per cent for its 511 rooms. Rooms at the Royal Plaza are going at $960 per night with a minimum of two nights, about three times its corporate rate and nearly double its rack rate of $500 plus.


In Singapore, hotels have not been filling up as quickly as previously anticipated, although BT understands from some hotels that the pace is picking up.

Over at trackside hotel the Fullerton, bookings have been ‘definitely going up,’ said a spokesperson. Non track-view rooms start at $2,000 per night, while track-view rooms are going at close to $3,000. The Fullerton has not lowered its rates since they were launched, the spokesperson said.

Source : Business Times - 28 Jul 2008

[ 本帖最后由 bryon 于 28-7-2008 01:17 PM 编辑 ]

bryon

其实在很久很久以前，在媒体没有任何报导美国financial crisis的时候
我已经“看到”了，可是我不知道自己“看到”了，结果错过了

要知道更多，请看http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/history.html

bryon

开了帖那么久，大部分时间都是在直言自语
想做的事太多，时间太少，所以决定改变策略，也顺便可以回到属于我的地方[英文blog]
谢谢大家几个月来的支持
尤其是Mr Business，K男,蚂蚁小弟，等

goodluck88

前辈要多多回来。。。发表您的看法哦。。。

flyingfish

bryon兄，你好。
遗憾之前没看到你的专区与你交流。
觉得你看了很多书，有自己的insights，帖子资讯浓缩，言简意赅，
请问你的英文blog网址

huang_su_lang

别忘了还有只阅览你的专区而少留言的， 就像我

不错的看法与分析，加油

我已bookmark了你的专区，会常常来看看的，别让支持你的人失望哦。。。

bryon

可以看看国际trust fund在malaysia stock exchange的动作
http://www.mffais.com/rankings/my/

贺

谢谢你提供了这些我从来都不知道的good links....谢谢了

bryon

capitaland malaysia reit

记得注意是否AEI后还是AEI前就IPO,
如果是AEI后，吸引力大减
=)

bryon

India

还没看的推荐大家去看michael backman's asia future shock的chapter 6
the rush out of india by indian companies

我注意越来越多bursa的公司资产被印度公司买去了
Unza-Wipro
Tamco Switchgear->Larsen & Toubro Ltd
jspc-> axon ->HCL Tech
lfib的forest->indian company



结论是
会有越来越多的indian mnc

K男

原帖由 bryon 于 8-10-2008 11:11 AM 发表
India

还没看的推荐大家去看michael backman's asia future shock的chapter 6
the rush out of india by indian companies

我注意越来越多bursa的公司资产被印度公司买去了
Unza-Wipro
Tamco Switchgear->L ...

贸易消费建筑服务。。。如果金融也有涉及。。。那么也许又是寻找千里马的机会-理想中



软趴趴的说

bryon

ytl出手了，下一个会是谁？

In the biggest Singapore Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) deal to date, YTL Corporation, one of Malaysia's largest conglomerates, has acquired around 36% in Macquarie Prime REIT (MP Reit), and a 50% stake in its holding company Prime REIT Management Holdings (PRMH).YTL will buy the stakes from Macquarie Bank for around SGD285mn (US$193mn), in a deal that will make it MP REIT's largest shareholder and give it control of the trust. MP REIT boasts a portfolio consisting of 10 major properties in Singapore, Tokyo and China which is worth around SGD2.2bn, and has a market cap of around SGD516mn.

买50%控股的原因是有50%就可以命名了，那个52%price premium随便inject一两个properties进去就可以拿回来了
想象新加坡orchard road的ngee ann city & wisma atria上面高高挂着Starhill Global REIT

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times --Charles Dickens


[ 本帖最后由 bryon 于 10-11-2008 09:19 AM 编辑 ]

goodluck88

大哥好久不见。。。。。

bryon

大家好
小的希望看到更多有建设性与启发性的发表

liyen1708

原帖由 bryon 于 10-11-2008 11:05 AM 发表
大家好
小的希望看到更多有建设性与启发性的发表

朋友
你的帖在其他区看到
不错。。

转帖——————

中国近两月坚持增持美国债500亿美元 专家解析原因
2008年11月07日 10:17中国经济网【大 中 小】 【打印】
11 月4日《华尔街日报》报道，据美国经济学家Brad Setser估算，中国央行在2008年8月至2008年10月之间增持了美国国债500亿美元，总额达到7500亿美元。中国已经显著超过日本 (5950亿美元)成为美国国债的最大持有国。中国央行持有美国国债规模占外国央行持有美国国债总规模的35.4%，占美国可流通国债总额的13.3%。
次贷危机爆发至今，美国政府承诺用于救市的潜在资金规模已经高达1.8万亿美元。增发国债无疑将成为美国政府用于财政融资的最重要手段。目前美国财政部的未偿还债务达到10.5万亿美元，其中可流通国债总额为5.7万亿美元。如果美国政府全部采用增发国债的方式来为救市成本融资，这将显著扩大可流通国债规模，一方面导致新发国债收益率上升，另一方面导致存量国债的市场价值缩水。
最近一段时间以来，中国国内就中国央行是否应继续购买美国国债，展开了非常激烈的争论。反对意见认为，既然美国国债的市场价值可能继续缩水，而且金融市场稳定之后美元可能大幅贬值，继续增持国债意味着未来可能出现更大损失，此举不符合中国的国家利益。支持意见则指出，如果中国不继续购买美国国债，那么为了把新发国债推销出去，美国政府的自然反应是大幅提高新发国债的收益率，这将导致中国央行持有的存量国债价值更加猛烈的缩水。因此，通过继续购买美国国债的方式来帮助美国金融市场尽快恢复稳定，从整体上而言有助于最小化中国外汇储备在次贷危机中的损失。
如果Setser估算正确，那么最近两个月以来中国央行依然在增持美国国债。其实中国央行的举动并非特立独行，Setser的估算同时表明，日本央行以及石油出口国央行们同样也在增持美国国债，其中日本央行增持了90亿美元，石油出口国央行增持了100亿美元。
为什么中国央行会继续增持美国国债呢？
第一，这与全球范围内金融机构的去杠杆化(Deleveraging)有关。国际金融机构普遍实施了在险价值(Value at Risk, VAR)的资产管理模式，在这种模式下，一旦资产价格下跌，金融机构将被迫收缩财务杠杆，通过出售风险资产来偿还债务。全球主要金融机构同时启动去杠杆化进程，导致短期国际资本从新兴市场国家的资本市场大规模撤出(这也是韩国等国家面临资本外流的根本原因)，并重新流回美国。毕竟美元仍是当前国际货币体系中最具流动性的币种，美国国债仍是当前国际金融市场上最具流动性的资产。大量短期国际资本重新流入美元短期国债市场，导致了两个后果。其一是美国国债收益率曲线变得非常陡峭(参见图1美国国债收益率曲线的变化)。由于大量短期国际资本投资于美国短期国债寻求避险，导致美国1个月、3个月等短期国债收益率水平迅速下降，甚至一度出现负利率的情形；其二是美元相对于其他主要货币的显著升值，尤其是相对于欧元大幅升值。2008年年初至今，美元对欧元升值超过 25%。美元汇率走强也是导致全球原油及初级产品价格下挫的动因之一。

图1 美国国债收益率曲线的变化

资料来源：美国财政部
第二，这与中国央行的人民币汇率政策有关。尽管从2005年7月开始，中国开始实施人民币有管理浮动、参考一揽子货币的汇率政策。但自2008年第 3季度以来，随着美国次贷危机的深化对中国出口行业的冲击加大，人民币对美元的升值幅度明显减缓。2008年第3季度，人民币对美元名义汇率仅升值 0.6%。由于这一时期内美元对欧元显著升值，导致实际盯住美元的人民币对欧元汇率也出现显著升值(参见图2近期人民币对美元与欧元的汇率走势)。 2008年第3季度，人民币对欧元名义汇率升值了7.5%——这是汇改以来人民币对欧元汇率最大的单季升值幅度。

图2 近期人民币对美元与欧元的汇率走势

资料来源：www.exchange-rates.org。
综合以上两个原因，不难理解中国央行为什么继续增持美元国债。由于美国短期国债重新获得国际投资者青睐，美元对其他主要货币显著升值。在这一背景下，如果减持美元资产、增持其他币种资产，将导致外汇储备市场价值出现较大账面损失(因为外汇储备是以美元计价)。因此增持美元国债就成为中国央行的暂时之选。我估计，在中国央行增持的美国国债中，短期国债的比重可能显著上升，因为金融市场动荡时期，美国长期国债市场价值的波动性更强。增持美国短期国债，也是“现金为王”(Cash is the King)思路的变相体现。
作者为中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所博士；本文仅代表作者本人观点。

bryon

我改变不到什么，可是，我可以改变自己

钱stuck在股市的大家
你可以卖了认输
或者
换马

心态很重要

bryon

谢谢 goodluck88 &  liyen1708 支持
大家比较想见到什么话题的文章
对小弟的comment
想要讨论什么的不妨提出
一个人说话很闷的

goodluck88

想要听听bryon兄对大势的看法。。。